Last night 2-5-1 -3,29 Units YTD 101-86-2 +17.12 Units
After a great Saturday of hockey, we have 6 games on deck for Sunday with a slew of 5PM games. Upstart LA visits Colorado as they chase the Avs for the final playoff spot in the West Division. Meanwhile we have the battle of Ontario as Toronto visits Ottawa. The Leafs are off 3 huge emotional games with the Jets, while the Sens return from a 6 game Western road trip. We have two systems conflicting tonight as Ottawa is sitting rested at home while Toronto played Winnipeg last night. But, the Sens are off their long road trip. How will they respond on homeice? I truly think the Leafs might come out flat due to their three tough games against the Jets and Ottawa always plays Toronto hard.
**I have started to research teams that come off at least a 5 game road trip and how they fare in their first game back home.** Buffalo and St. Louis lost on back to back nights, returning from long road trips. Its 2-1 if you get against these two teams after TB won at home last night.
I am starting a new angle that you will see in Scenario #1. It’s a very small size, but it’s 6-0 this week and there are 2 more spots like this between now and March 18th. I will track it and see how its plays out here for all those that read the column.
Scenario #1 – Teams that are rested, either sitting at home or on the road while their opponent plays the night before. 6-0 in the first week of tracking it!
Scenario #2 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 49-32. NJ fits the system today.
Scenario #3 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 17-19-1 when teams play on the road back to back nights. NYI/NJ and Dallas/CLB fit the system today.
Scenario #4 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 70-55 in that situation. AZ and LA fit this system today.
Quick stat updates - First period totals going over were 5-7 last night and are 193-224 on the season. Road teams were 7-5 last night and are 198-212 on the season. Game totals going over the total were 4-6-2 last night and are 207-193-9 on the season.
Gamenotes for today/tonight –
Yotes/Wild - 2PM – Wild have won 2 of 3 meetings and have 2 huge games on deck with Colorado.
Canes/Wings - 5PM – Canes won 2 of 3 meetings this year, lone loss was at Detroit.
Stars/Jackets - 5PM – Jackets have won 3 of 5 this season. Jackets off for 4 nights after tonights game.
NYI/NJ - 5PM – 3rd game in 4 nights between these two. NYI has won 4 of 5 head to head and 4 of 5 have gone under the total.
LA/Colorado - 5:30PM – Avs have won 2 of 3 meetings this year.
Leafs/Sens – Sens have won 2 of 5 head to head this year, see above in article on system plays.
System plays all for 1 Unit each –
AZ – ML(+164) NJ - ML(+166) LA – ML(+210) NYI/NJ u5.5(-104) Stars – ML(-137) Stars/Jackets u5.5(-129)
Feel free to ask any questions in the blog and I always get back to everyone. I will have Twitter and Instagram going shortly. Good luck tonight!
Puckpix