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Vladimir Tarasenko is yet another big name on the trade block this offseason, after it was reported earlier this month that the forward has requested a trade out of St. Louis.
Tarasenko has been a key player with the Blues for a decade now, and at his best, he can be counted on for around 35 goals and about 75 points per year. However, a shoulder injury has kept him to just 24 regular season games over the last two seasons and given he’ll be turning 30 years old in December, there’s certainly risk in acquiring him.
As a result though, it also means his value will be much lower than it was a few years ago. Tarasenko reportedly did list the Islanders as a team he’d be willing to go to, according to The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford, which opens the door to a potential deal with New York.
If New York is willing to give up the pieces needed to acquire him, the biggest issue the Islanders would to face in acquiring Tarasenko is their lack of cap space. The Islanders have three notable restricted free agents in Anthony Beauvillier, Adam Pelech and Ilya Sorokin, and with nowhere near enough cap space for even those players, adding Tarasenko’s $7.5 million AAV to the mix won’t help. Maybe the Blues would be willing to retain some of his salary but even if they do, it’s likely not going to be a huge chunk of it.
That said, the term on his contract is actually quite favourable, with only two years remaining. This minimal term lessens the risks of the trade, as the Islanders wouldn’t be tied to Tarasenko long-term.
It’s difficult to predict what a trade would look like, but it would likely need to feature a roster player first, along with a combination of picks and/or prospects. Either Josh Bailey or Jordan Eberle could be included in a trade to help offset Tarasenko’s cap hit, with Eberle being the more ideal option, given that he has a higher cap hit, lower production and is reportedly already being shopped. The Islanders do have two second-round picks next year and perhaps they'd be willing to move one of them and a prospect like Simon Holmstrom or Bode Wilde, along with Eberle, in order to acquire Tarasenko. Again, a deal is difficult to predict given Tarasenko's injury history and people will likely have different opinions when it comes to his value, but I think that's probably in the range of the return we'd see.
I think in theory, trading for Tarasenko certainly does make sense for the Islanders. New York’s major flaw has been a lack of true top forwards and adding Tarasenko would be a huge addition, even if there are injury concerns. Again though, I think the major barrier the Islanders would face in making a deal work would be finding the cap space. It’s possible and I’d like to see it happen, but it would be a tricky deal for the team to pull off.
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