Part three of three of the mailbag is here. Check it out!
Prock: How good can Chabot be? Am I crazy for expecting him to develop into a top 5 NHL dman in his prime?
I don’t think that’s crazy at all. He already ranks 4th amongst defensemen in both goals above replacement (GAR) and WAR on Evolving Wild’s model. GAR and WAR are cumulative stats too, so that’s even more impressive considering he has missed some time due to injury. I honestly think he is going to be a top-10 defenseman in the game moving forward, although perhaps that’s just me getting too hyped during an incredibly good season. Either way, he’s easily a first pairing player.
Robbie: What’s the latest on the LeBreton project? What’s the future of the organization?
Honestly, I don’t feel like I know enough about the ins and outs of the project, and it’s a lot harder to understand what is going on because I am not in the city. I’m just as caught up as everyone else for this situation, and right now, it looks like it’s possible that Melnyk will partially sell the team so that LeBreton can be finalized. Whatever deal that gets done, it looks like it will be quite complicated, and fans might not get what they want if Melnyk is still somewhat involved. The future of this organization is in downtown Ottawa, and I think that will happen sooner or later.
Mike: Trevor, free agency is getting tricky in a hard cap league. Is there any FA compensation system you can dream of similar to baseball so teams don’t feel a need to trade their own rentals?
With the RFA system in place, I don’t think so. I prefer NHL free agency to MLB, because I don’t see why a team should be receiving compensation for losing someone over the age of 27. Plus in MLB, we’ve seen players with a qualifying offer attached get penalized because teams don’t want to give up a draft pick to sign those players. I’m against any new system that hurts the players, and I think what the league has right now is perfectly fine. Plus more trades at the deadline is a good thing anyway.
Anonymous: Do the Sens look for immediate goaltending help? Or hope Gustavsson/Hogberg are ready after Anderson is done next year? Is that enough time to develop them?
I answered a similar question in part one or two, so I’ll give similar thoughts here. I don’t think they will do anything major in the off-season besides maybe re-sign Anders Nilsson or go for a different backup on a one-year deal. Marcus Hogberg is already 24 and will be turning 26 by the time Craig Anderson is gone, so there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be “ready,… and he might even be good enough next season. Filip Gustavsson will be 22 at that time, so there’s a chance that both of them will be good enough, but it’s too early to tell.
Anthony from Ottawa: Even if Ottawa trades Ceci their right defense should be more than adequate with Demelo, Jaros and the likely emergence of Docker. Chabot and Wolanin seem to be strong on the left side. Who do you see filling the last spot on the left side especially on the penalty kill in years to come? Does Ottawa have to fill this via trade or do you see Ben Harpur progressing?
You’d hope that over time, there would be external acquisitions as well, so perhaps that will be the answer. Once they are on the verge of becoming good again, they will certainly have to make a move. Ideally, Max Lajoie will hold that third spot on the left side, making the entire left side quite solid. I’m not the biggest Ben Harpur fan, although he can probably be a decent enough 6th/7th defenseman. As for the penalty kill, Christian Jaros can fill that spot, and if Harpur is on the roster, then him as well.
Plus it’s hard to imagine Mark Borowiecki not being on the team, even though he is easily replaceable. At least there are some options moving forward. SPRUCESENS: Even with Stone and Duchene tearing it up this year, we are dead last. Most of our top prospects are slowly being introduced with very little impact aside from White and Tkachuk (others to lesser extents). Realistically, we won't be competing for the cup during the prime years of Stone and Duchene, unless we land some crazy UFA's or prospects jump leaps and bounds ahead of where they are currently. And if that's the case, is it not better to move on with both, as much as it hurts? The potential of quality players coming back through picks etc. is probably more in line for when this team is going to be competitive again. However, do we really trust the combo of Dorion and Melnyk to get full value, when not 1 trade they have made got full value? EK, Zib, Hoffman…
You’re thoughts are all valid. You can certainly make the case that it’s best to just bite the bullet and sell off all three of their best forwards and really tank for the next few seasons before getting on path to competing again. But like you say, I really don’t have much faith in Pierre Dorion being the right man for the job for overhauling a franchise and making them a contender again. I still do think though that if they wanted to keep all three of them (and they were willing to stay), their path back to the playoffs and being a contender wouldn’t have to take as long as people think.
Sure, they still wouldn’t be good next season and potentially not the season after that, but they would have five legitimate top-six forwards, a number one defenseman, and a ton of prospects to fill other holes. If they added a number one goaltender and a couple of defensemen, they would have a lot of potential. So their path back doesn’t necessarily have to be that difficult, but even if one of Stone or Duchene leaves, that makes things a lot more complicated.
Tim: Is there any evidence out there that the 11-7 lineup that Boucher seems to love is any more (or less) effective than 12-6? On the surface it seems silly to use 7 defencemen when we arguably don't even have 6 NHL quality guys.
Not really. All it does is give him an excuse to hardly use the fourth line because they don’t have a third linemate. It also gives him more options for matchups with their defensemen, but that doesn’t make any sense when the Senators have by far the worst defense corps in the league. It’s frustrating seeing someone like Nick Paul get kicked out of the lineup in favour of another redundant defenseman like Mark Borowiecki.
Josh F: With criticism from the Senators not getting enough in return for Erik Karlsson (no top prospects or picks, still some good pieces nonetheless) as well as getting next to nothing for Hoffman, change the rule that they don’t trade players within the division or conference? It’s well established that the Senators don’t like to trade within the division or conference, but with two gigantic trade chips this year in Duchene and Stone, they must be concerned about getting the best package possible. I’d be looking at Philly to offer a huge package.
It’s one of the dumbest things in hockey to worry about trading a player within your division or conference. In a sport like basketball or football that might have some merit because one superstar can change an entire team, but in hockey it isn’t going to have the same kind of impact. It especially shouldn’t matter right now because the Senators are going to be terrible for a while, so who cares who else is good in your division? It might be more hurtful to see Mike Hoffman for an extra game or two per season, but so what?
They need to prioritize the best offer, and if the Leafs gave by far the best offer for anyone, I would take it in a heartbeat.
Rob Johnstone: Beyond the obvious (money) what motivation can the Sens offer a Stone or Duchene to sign new contracts? The money will presumably be on offer from other teams so why sign with the Sens a team that doesn't appear to be on the road to vie for the cup let alone a playoff spot; has a sub-par General Manager, a lame-duck coach, a dwindling fan base and a recalcitrant owner.
That’s exactly the question. And fans are praying that these players have their reasons to want to stay. Ottawa is a nice city and Stone and Duchene seem to like it here, so that’s obviously a huge factor in deciding their future. Duchene grew up only a few hours away, and I’m sure Stone enjoys playing for a Canadian team too, so those are certainly important factors. But yes, if we’re looking at organizational factors, there’s no reason why they should have faith.
David22 (anonymous with similar question): If all or any of Dzingel, Duchene or Stone are traded, where do you see them being traded to, and what do you feel could be a fair return?
These are always difficult to answer. Duchene and Stone should net them a 1st round pick, a very good prospect, and probably even another pick, whereas Dzingel might net them a 1st round pick and a decent prospect. Considering they are rentals, it would be hard to expect much more. As for teams, any team interested in either of them would be interested in all of them, and I would include Winnipeg, Edmonton, Boston, Pittsburgh, and Calgary as those who could be snooping around. That’s not a rumour, but just a hunch.
Zopust: Ottawa fans are notorious for their love of high tempo, gritty hockey with names like Fisher, Alfredsson, Phillips and Neil as examples of homegrown heroes. Presuming Guy Boucher is not extended (unlikely), who do you see as the next coach of the Sens and will it be someone who favours skill or a bump-and-grind, tough-to-play-against style of play. Thanks!
Like I mentioned on part one of the mailbag, I’d love to have Toronto Marlies coach Sheldon Keefe come in, as he has had immense success at the AHL level for several years now. However, I’d be surprised if they go in an innovative direction. I can easily see Marc Crawford take over, but I would be pretty disappointed with that because they need to be moving into the future, not the past. If not Crawford, I’m not really sure on specific names, but I can definitely see a coach that prides his teams on being “tough to play against.…
I just hope that a new coach is great with young players and can help develop them, because that’s what they will need for the next few seasons. DoubleD: Why is it taking this much time to have Stone signed and the C put on his jersey. He is the perfect person to guide these young players to the future playoffs, I believe that in most opinion everyone else should be traded for draft picks and or a-b prospects. Stone is the ultimate representative of a player who never give up on a play just look at how many seasons he leads the league in steals.
Your analysis of him is spot-on. He is everything that a team could possibly want in a player, and it will be (another) crime against humanity if Ottawa isn’t able to keep him around. I’m a tad worried that he hasn’t signed yet because he was eligible to do so on January 1st, but Dorion still has a few more weeks to figure things out. I’m also leaning towards thinking that he will stay. If Stone ever does re-sign, he’s a lock to get the captaincy in the summer.
I appreciate all of the well thought out questions, it’s always fun doing these! I will definitely keep doing them in the future.