For the fourth time in the last 11 seasons, the Ottawa Senators and Pittsburgh Penguins will meet in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Ottawa won the first meeting 4 games to 1 in the first round of 2007, the first step on the road to the only Finals appearance in franchise history.
The Penguins took the next 3 matchups, 4-0 in 2008, 4-2 in 2010 (both in the first round) and 4-1 in 2013's second round.
But, those games are in the past and have no bearing on this season. The Pens are coming in as defending Stanley Cup Champions, and jut knocked off the rival Washington Capitals in 7 games despite being outplayed. The Senators enter this series as consensus underdogs, not expected to advance this far, eliminating the New York Rangers in 6 games.
While it is tough to compare what has gone on so far because there have been no common opponents, you have to start somewhere, so here is how I see the matchup:
OFFENSE
You might as well nickname Sidney Crosby " Melnyk", because the Kid has owned the Senators in the playoffs. In 20 career meetings, Crosby has 33 points (including 14 goals), 15 of them coming on the power play. Evgeni Malkin isn't far behind, with 24 points head to head with the Senators. Malkin leads all point-getters this post-season with 18, while Crosby and Jake Guentzel each have 14 and Phil Kessel has 13.
For the Senators, Erik Karlsson leads the team with 13 points, while Bobby Ryan and Derick Brassard each have 9 points to lead the forwards. Jean-Gabriel Pageau lead them in goals with 7 (and 0 assists), and has scored 6 of the last 17 Senators goals. On the plus side, Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris and Mark Stone started finding the back of the net in the latter part of the Rangers' series, something that will be vital if the Senators have a chance.
The Penguins have scored a playoff-high 3.43 goals per game, while the Senators sit 3rd at 2.83. Ottawa is averaging 31.4 shots per game while the Penguins are putting just 27.7 on goal, but when you have sharpshooters like Crosby, Kessel and Guentzel it isn't about quantity but quality for the Pens.
Led by Karlsson's 13, Ottawa has 28 points from their defensemen, while the Penguins have 24, led by Justin Schultz' 8.
EDGE: PENGUINS
DEFENSE
Pittsburgh is a hurting unit on the blue line, missing Kris Letang for the entire postseason and without Trevor Daley for the last couple of games of the Washington series. As a team, the Penguins have allowed 664 shot attempts at 5-on-5, almost 100 more than the Senators (576) through 12 playoff games. Their depth will be tested, especially if Daley is out for any length of time. Their top pair is Ian Cole and Schultz.
Ottawa is led by the top duo of Karlsson and Marc Methot, with Karlsson playing about half the game with a variety of different partners at different times. If there is a question mark in this series, it is Cody Ceci and Dion Phaneuf and how they will match up with the speed of whatever line they get matched up against. Phaneuf is not fleet of foot but been good in the playoffs, and seems to relish the challenge of matching up against Crosby, who he has had a number of epic battles with, but Ceci has struggled in his own end and when he is under any kind of pressure he is prone to mistakes. The third pairing of a mix of Chris Wideman/Freddie Claesson/Ben Harpur has had its ups and downs, but have been adequate for what a third unit needs to be.
EDGE: SENATORS, in terms of overall team defense
GOALTENDING
Marc-Andre Fleury wasn't supposed to be in the crease, but thanks to a pre-game warmup injury to Matt Murray prior to game 1 of the first round, Fleury has taken the ball and run with it. Along with Karlsson, Fleury is a Conn Smythe contender and has led the way because the Pens have arguably been outplayed in both of their series (if you look at possession numbers). He is still Marc-Andre Fleury, and there is always the chance for the meltdown that has haunted him in previous years. However, Murray backed up Fleury in game 7, so if Fleury does have a stumble, plan B is pretty good.
Craig Anderson has had an up and down playoff, but was very good in game 6 against the Rangers, hopefully a sign that he is finding his game. Anderson's save percentage of .914 is adequate, but needs to be better against a sharpshooting Penguins team. Although plan B for the Senators might not be as good as that for the Pens, should Mike Condon be forced into action the Senators wouldn't lose much.
Whatever happens, given their (in)ability to handle the puck, I am sure both teams would prefer their netminder focus on stopping the puck rather than stepping out to play it.
EDGE: PENGUINS
SPECIAL TEAMS
Even without Letang, the five guys the Pens can throw out there for their top power play unit is downright scary. Crosby, Malkin, Kessel and Schultz can throw the puck around with ease and the fifth member, usually Patric Hornqvist, is a pest in front of the net. They are clicking at almost 22% (8 for 37). Meanwhile the Senators have been more timely than good with the man advantage, going 6 for 41 (14.6%) but have also allowed 3 opposition short-handed goals, so their power play is just +3 in the playoffs.
The Pens penalty kill has not been strong, at just 80%, while Ottawa has been better with a 87.5% success rate.
The PP + PK combined ratings: Pens - 102.6, Sens - 102.1
EDGE: EVEN
INTANGIBLES:
The Penguins core has 2 Stanley Cups in the past 8 years, including last year. They know how to win, and have to think that after beating the Blue Jackets and Capitals, both top 5 NHL teams, their road is a little smoother. That is not to say they will take the Senators lightly, because they are too smart for that. It also means they have played a lot of hockey in the last year, and it is always tough to repeat.
The Senators' whole has seemed to be greater than the sum of its parts for a while now, and that is in part due to the system that was promised by and delivered on by Guy Boucher, and everyone has bought in. The Senators have proven to be resilient, scrappy and although inconsistent at times they have found a way to scratch out wins.
EDGE: PENGUINS
Crosby is usually a focal point, and this series will be no exception, not only because of his previous playoff success, but dating back to about eight weeks when an innocent looking slash caused catastrophic damage to the finger of Methot, causing him to miss 10 games after having the tip of the finger re-attached.
PREDICTION:
I said the Senators in 7 for round 1, and they won in 6. I called Senators in 7 for round 2, and again they won in 6.
The Senators won the season series 2-1, holding Crosby to just 1 point, which can give the Senators some solace, but great players step up in big moments and Crosby is no exception. Karlsson also has that clutch moment, and he has the eye of the tiger right now.
Although I think the Senators have a decent shot at pulling the upset and it wouldn't shock me if they continued to surprise, I think the Penguins just have too much experience winning and firepower.
PENS in 7.