After multiple days of mailbag posts, this is finally the last one! Thanks for all the great questions, I really enjoyed answering all of them as always. There were a few that I didn’t answer, but that was only because they were similar to others that I responded to. Anyway, here are the rest of the questions!
Why wouldn't the Sens use their cap leverage and take a run at an expensive dman from the Flames and Tkachuk ?---KF
You lost Eugene Melnyk at “expensive.… Ottawa isn’t going to spend any more money than is necessary in regards to the cap floor even if it means they would be getting a free asset or improving the team. They will certainly not be offer sheeting Matthew Tkachuk because Ottawa would be giving up a ton of high draft picks and they would still be bad for his first few seasons. As for their defensemen, I would love to have Noah Hanifin, but all of their other expensive defensemen are at least 28 and will be past their primes once the Senators want to compete again.
There’s cap leverage to be had, but not with Calgary.
Do you think they are serious discussion between the Oilers and the Sens about Pujujarvi? What do you think about it? Can he finally be this good as a top 4 projected prospect of the entry draft in 2016 ......or the Sens shouldn’t touch him? What can be the price in exchange for him? Can Brannstrom make the big team this year?---Steve
Ottawa might have touched base with Edmonton regarding Puljujarvi, but I’m sure every other team in the league has as well. I think if a deal could have gotten done between these two teams, it would have happened by now. I would be all for buying low on him, but I’m also not 100% sold that he is a future top-six forward. In terms of what he would cost, it’s incredibly difficult to gauge. I assume Edmonton would be asking for a young NHL-ready prospect in return such as Batherson or Brown, in which case, I would be fine saying no to that.
As for Brannstrom, I don’t think he’ll make the NHL right away due to the logjam they have, but I think he will end up playing 30-40 games in Ottawa after injuries occur. A bit more time in the AHL can’t hurt, although he should be ready quite soon.
Are there any buy low candidates (like Puljujarvi) that you can see the Senators would look at and/or trade for?---Niko Farmer
As just mentioned, I don’t think Puljujarvi will be coming to Ottawa because of the asking price and the fact that every other team is interested in him. I don’t think the Senators will be making any more moves before the season starts, but if I were them, I would take a look at Nikolay Goldobin, Robby Fabbri, and Michael Dal Colle (amongst others). Goldobin could probably be had for cheap from Vancouver despite playing fantastic in the AHL and not being given much of a shot in the NHL. Fabbri has had injury troubles but had a great rookie season and has been connected to Ottawa. Dal Colle finally had a solid AHL season with 34 points in 34 games and the former 5th overall pick showed some life---he could be resurrected for a cheap price.
Don’t expect much though, I don’t think Dorion will actually be trading for any of them.
With teams like Arizona and Florida spending to the cap with a much smaller fan base than the Senators, do you think that Eugene is taking home profits? As well do you think Eugene is waiting for the expansion money or a new TV deal before he sells?---Joshua Fernandes
I don’t know how much money Melnyk is making in recent years, but we do know that he is really struggling. Arizona and Florida spending more isn’t really due to their fanbases, it’s more to do with deeper-pocketed owners compared to Ottawa. As I said yesterday, he could definitely be waiting for expansion money from Seattle, which would make sense. However, he wants to hold onto the Senators for as long as possible, so I wouldn’t guarantee a sale within two years either. One thing most people seem to agree on: there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
Is the organization's promise of unparalleled success in 3 years time realistic for a team that cannot afford to spend to the cap? Year 1 saw the liquidation of all our worthwhile assets. Year 2 seems to have a last-place finish as the prime target in hopes of picking Lafrenière. That only leaves one season to go from last place to a playoff team. Is that realistic?---Voice of Reason
A lot of it depends on who the owner is. If Melnyk is still around, then they won’t be spending to the cap and won’t really be able to add much to the roster. Furthermore, I don’t have faith the Pierre Dorion is a good GM. I think there’s a chance that Ottawa could contend for a playoff spot in 2021-22, but even that’s not a guarantee. The organization’s timeline seems to be faster than what others believe it will be, and they will need a lot to go right in order for that to happen.
What would have to go right/wrong the Senators to finish outside the bottom 5 lottery pick this year? I.e., Anderson goes down early and Nilsson goes on a Hamburglar-type run, or Team-X is worse than Ottawa---Nick
I think you hit the nail on the head about Nilsson playing very well. Ottawa’s goaltending has been atrocious for two straight seasons, so if Nilsson can pick up the slack and Hogberg can play well when he gets called up as well, that will definitely be a boost for them. Furthermore, if young players such as Drake Batherson, Logan Brown, Christian Wolanin, Rudolfs Balcers, etc. can take a big step forward and establish themselves as full-time NHLers, then the Senators could move into the bottom 5-10 range instead.
That’s a lot of ifs though, and the more likely scenario is that they finish in the bottom-3.
With Montreal trying to use Carolina’s internal budget to offer sheet Aho, how scared are you that someone with try that same with Chabot next season?---David
I covered this in a Thursday Think Tank article a few weeks ago, but it’s definitely something that is a bit worrisome. We know that Melnyk does not have much cash, so any contract that is heavy on signing bonuses is a no-go for him. I wonder how cheap he would be willing to go in order to let another star player leave town because I feel like it wouldn’t be that much. That’s why it’s so important to get Chabot signed before July 1st, even though offer sheets are so incredibly rare.
Can you make an argument why Chabot would sign now as opposed to waiting for RFA. With the assumption Melnyk will be consistent in avoiding signing bonuses like we've seen this year?---Wasanegg
This is similar to the previous question, and you’re right, Chabot has no reason to sign right now. I think he will have an even better 2019-20 season, which means he will be able to ask for even more on his next contract. I don’t think Chabot wants a team to offer sheet him just so he can leave Ottawa, but I’m sure he would be fine with waiting until July 1st to sign anything so that he can get a contract structured just the way he likes it. Chabot holds a lot of leverage just by betting on himself this season.
Will Chabot sign contract before the season in season? White news?---BayernSenators9
I haven’t heard a single thing about extension talks with Chabot, so I feel like there won’t be anything until at least the new year, which is disappointing. Like I said though, he has leverage right now and is probably betting on himself to have an even better season. If it can be done though, now is exactly the time to get it done while Dorion is only dealing with one other contract. Speaking of that contract, there is nothing new to report on Colin White, although I’m not worried about a deal getting done. Ottawa usually does quite well on RFA deals for players like him.
Thanks again for all of your questions! I hope you enjoyed this mini-series.