Slowly but surely I'm getting through these mailbag questions, and here is part 3!
Hey, just wondering if you are hearing if the sens are trying to trade for another player or sign an RFA. thanks for your time!---Justin
I can’t see them trading for anybody, especially if it is going to add to their salary. There’s no chance that they would offer sheet some player because they would be giving up valuable picks, plus that would cost a lot of money while they are still bad. Of course, they still need to re-sign Colin White, so that is one RFA they will sign soon.
Which of the impending UFA (Pageau, Ennis, Boedker, DeMelo, Hainsey, Borowiecki, and Anderson) are most likely to be traded by the deadline?---khawk
I think they want to keep Borowiecki as a “glue guy,… and Anderson probably won’t have a market due to his poor play. I doubt anyone would want Boedker too, although he’s still 29 and might be moved with some retained salary. I’m hoping they will want to keep DeMelo and Pageau around, so I’m betting that Ennis and Hainsey will be the ones who could get moved. If I had to order them in the likelihood of getting traded I’d put it like this: Hainsey, Ennis, Boedker, DeMelo, Pageau, Borowiecki, Anderson.
At what point does the NHL step in and force a sale of the Sens? Is this a pipe dream? Does Chabot have to be traded?---Iceman
I don’t know what has to happen but there is obviously a line that Melnyk could cross at some point. They are definitely aware of his financial situation right now, and I can’t imagine they are thrilled with what is going on. A forced sale might not happen for a few more years and something egregious would have to happen to show that he is not fit to own the team. It might be a bit of a pipe dream though, as I think it’s more likely that he just ends up selling at some point. Chabot does not have to be traded, although he might have to several years from now if Melnyk is still owning the team and is still broke.
Trevor, What do you foresee Connor Brown's stats being (e.g., 1st or 2nd line; linemates; PP time; G's; A's)?---Sergeant32
I think he will be getting 3rd line minutes behind Drake Batherson and Bobby Ryan, which is exactly where he should be. He might get some powerplay time, but there are other more talented forwards who will take precedence. He should get a decent amount of penalty kill time though, especially with there not being many options. I’ll say he ends up with 12 goals and 21 assists on the season (3 points below his career-high).
What kind of impact will Colin White or Logan Brown might have?---Denisbeauregard
Brown definitely has the higher ceiling, as it’s possible that he can be a lower-tier first-line centre who puts up 60-70 points. I’m not sure if he will reach those heights, but I’m confident that he will at least be a consistent 50-point player. He might not be that player in 2019-20, but it shouldn’t take him too long to get there. As for White, he will be better defensively but also a safer option.
As of now, he is a fringe 2C but I think he will settle in comfortably on the second line. I’m curious to see how he does without Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel though.
What do you make of the big money AHL signings (Ebert, Goloubef, Szwarz combine for 1.15M to play in Belleville)? Why wouldn't Dorion come out and say they plan to build a culture of success starting with Belleville? I guess hard to have plan and Dorion in the same sentence…---h2owed
I think Ebert, Alsing, and Szwarz add some much needed depth to Belleville, and even though they will be losing prospects to the NHL, others such as Alex Formenton and Josh Norris will be coming in to replace them. I’m sure he’s insinuated that it’s important to build a winning culture in Belleville first, but I’m not sure he needs to explicitly state that. I’ll say this: their AHL signings over the past two summers have been much better since Randy Lee left.
My question: Are the Sens REALLY that bad? Yes, they have no superstar, and yes they have a lot of kids. However a lot of the toxicity of the past few seasons is gone and perhaps with a bit of fun playing so too will the performance improve. I am not saying the 2019-20 Sens will challenge for the cup, but IMHO they are due for a modest improvement---probstc
I hate the narrative that the players who left were “toxic.… I have no idea (and nobody really does) what the dressing room was like, plus some of the players who left like Mark Stone were actually huge losses in terms of his off-ice impact. Maybe some of them needed to leave (like Hoffman), but we’re very much in the dark. To answer your question though, they are definitely very bad---a bottom-3 team in the league pretty easily. They could be due for a modest improvement if their goaltending is slightly better and their young players burst onto the scene, but their “best case… scenario is a bottom 5-10 finish.
A lot needs to go right for them to be not completely terrible though because they won’t even have their three highest scorers for ~60 games like they did last season.
What is a good contract for Chabot? What would be a win, what would be a loss? (I'd say 8x8 seems to be the ideal #)---Adam W
A “win… would have to be an 8-year deal. He would be 31 at the end of that, so even by the end he would still be a solid player (but not at his peak). $8M per season might be realistic, although that number could easily go up if Chabot improves on his 2018-19 season and demands more. Anything between $7M-$8.5M would be a “win,… but if he gets even better, then I could see a scenario where I would be fine with a contract worth over $9M.
A “loss… would be something under 5 years because 4 would bring him to unrestricted free agency, and that also leaves open the possibility of him leaving much earlier than everyone would like. A lot can change between now and next summer, and if I were the Senators, I’d be trying everything I can to get him extended.
Do you think EM is just waiting for his expansion fee before selling the team?---Code85
I really hope so, but I’ve learned to expect nothing in regards to ownership rumours. He has stripped the team of its expensive players and is actually paying well below the salary floor so it would make sense if he was waiting for a little extra cash in order to finally sell, but he’s also repeatedly said that he is never going to sell the team. As I keep saying, don’t get your hopes up for a sale in 2021 when Seattle comes into the league.