Thursday night 5-2 +4.10 Units YTD 20-23 -5.99 Units
Another big slate of games tonight with 12 on tap! One thing that Vegas has caught up on are the totals. Tonight, 6 of the 10 games have totals set at 5.5. Scoring lately has been down as the goaltenders have caught up to the shooters after having no pre-season. Be selective on the totals you play.
Three new angles that I have been tracking that might be something to look at both short and long term are as follows.
Scenario #1 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 15-5! Oilers fit this system tonight.
Scenario #2 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 5-3 when teams play on the road back to back nights.
Scenario #3 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 21-16 in that situation. Oilers and Flames fit this system tonight.
Quick stat updates - First period totals going over were 0-1 last night and are 49-65 on the season. Road teams were 1-0 last night and are 44-70 on the season. Home side the way to go even with the higher juice on the ML! Game totals going over the total were 0-1 last night and are 61-51-2 on the season, which is still a very profitable angle.
Gamenotes for tonight –
Preds/Lightning – TB is very strong at home while the Preds have been very average, especially on the road.
Pens/NYR – Pens are terrible on the road while the NYR need this win at home!
Bruins/Caps – Bruins are a different team on the road, plus Caps are strong at home. Couple that with the Caps and Chara facing his former team. Lean to the Caps here.
Flames/Habs – Flames players had a closed door meeting after last game, sometimes it can resonate with a team, it will be interesting to see how they respond.
Plays –
TB – ML(-173)(2 Units) Caps – ML(+120)(2 Units) Oilers – ML(+105)(1 Unit)
Feel free to ask any questions in the blog and I always get back to everyone. I will have Twitter and Instagram going shortly. Good luck tonight!
Puckpix