By Tom T
Trade Date 1/6/16
Relevant Stats with analysis below.
Ryan Johansen vitals and stats: Age: 26 Shoots: right 6'3" 218lbs Draft:#4 overall in 2010 (CBJ) CBJ NSH JT Games: 309 253 277 Goals: 79 46 91 Assists: 114 146 125 Points: 193 192 216 +/- -16 26 24
Seth Jones vitals and stats: Age: 24 Shoots: right 6'4" 210 lbs Draft:#4 overall in 2013 (NSH)
NSH CBJ EK Games: 199 235 277 Goals: 15 37 45 Assists: 48 148 213 Points: 63 185 258 +/- -25 8 -12
Team Results: NSH CBJ Playoff PTS Playoff PTS 13/14 OUT 88 IN 93 14/15 IN 104 OUT 89 15/16* IN 96 OUT 76 16/17 IN 94 IN 108 17/18 IN 117 IN 97 18/19 IN 64 IN 59 *Trade occurred in the middle of 15/16 season
What I'm looking at in the stats above: First, I looked at each player's stats with their original team compared to their post trade stats. Next, I compared Ryan Johansen to Jonathan Toews and Seth Jones to Erik Karlsson. I used the 2015 to current stats for Toews and Karlsson. You may agree with those comparisons, you may not, but I wanted to put a benchmark out there because it was not comparable to judge a defenseman's stats versus a forwards.
By the Numbers: RyJoe's goals dipped, assists and points jumped (adjusted for games played). Two things stick out to me. His +/- improved dramatically and all his stats compare favorably to Toews. He has also been to the playoffs all three years he has been with NSH (and probably a 4th this season). Jones has seen improvement in all his numbers driven by increased ice time and a top line role. Helpers jumped significantly, expected from a #1 defenseman, as well as +/- which is a sign of a good or improving team. Seth has seen the playoffs 2 years (fingers crossed 3) in a row with the Jackets. Difference here is that Ryan has been on playoff teams that have seen multiple rounds of play although he didn't get to see the ice in the Stanley Cup Finals in 2017 due to injury.
Circumstances: Time traveling back to 2014 in Columbus puts us in a weird hockey time. The Rick Nash-era ended on a sour note and Columbus struggled to find an identity. Franchise C, Jeff Carter, basically told the Blue Jackets thanks, but no thanks. Then the CBJ got away with grand larceny trading a 2nd and 4th round pick for Sergei Bobrovsky and found a new franchise center in the farm system. He became the leading scorer on a team that had never had anyone of note at the pivot. Then came the contract that caused all major sports outlets to ask 'Can they ever get past the ugly negotiation?'. The answer was 'No'. Signed in October of 2014 traded in January of 2015. On the other side there was Seth Jones. Drafted in 2013 and played 77 games that year. His time-on-ice was limited with the likes of Josi, Weber, Ellis and Ekholm forming NSH D-corp. With a glut of D, Nashville had the luxury of parting with one of them for a top line center. C-Bus saw a young player which could be the cornerstone of their future and a way to part ways with a talented player that they had a damaged relationship with.
Result: One player got a change of scenery, the other an opportunity. Both have produced and thus far (3 years removed) lived up to what their team wanted. For the most part this trade looks like the rare win-win for both teams involved. But let's ask a few questions:
Q1. Is RyJoe a #1 center? A1. He plays on NSH top line and has since his arrival. They have been a perennial playoff team and he may have been the difference against Pittsburgh in 2017. He hasn't made the All Star game since he was there as a Blue Jacket in 2015 (MVP) though. His improved assists and +/- show that he is a maturing C in today's NHL. While he isn't McDavid, Crosby or Matthews (or even a top 10 C) he is an undisputed #1 center and will be for years to come.
Q2. Is Jones a #1 D-man? A2. Yes, yes he is. Improved numbers, more playing time, 3 consecutive All Star appearances and 4th in voting for the Norris in 2018. He is not only a #1 D-man but certainly top 10.
Q3. Who made the bigger impact on their current team? A3. Currently Johansen is winning that battle with all the points and playoff games. But Jones isn't far behind as he is quickly coming into a leadership role.
Q4. Which is harder to find a #1 C or #1 D? A4. Tough choice. As a CBJ fan, I know that it is hard to get the important Ws without a #1 C. But, not having a #1 D can be covered up by a strong stay-at-home guy with a deficit in the offensive categories.
While I think this trade was very even, the slight edge goes to Nashville. Offense is harder to find and replace in today's NHL. Both players win with this trade as they are better players for it. Who do you think won this trade?