Some things we can count on each spring. Cherry blossoms bloom, peak sightseeing weather bathes the nation’s capital, the Washington Capitals are one loss away from losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and Marc-Andre Fleury is a .934 goaltender. Wait, what was that last one?!
Marc-Andre Fleury is the most important flower blooming this spring. Apparently, this kind of flower only comes out once every nine years. This is by far and away Fleury’s best performance in the playoffs since his amazing run in 2008 when he put the team on his back along with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and made it to the Stanley Cup Final against Detroit despite being a miserable possession team. It worked then and it appears history is repeating itself now.
Here is a look at his past playoff history using some goaltending metrics from Emmanuel Perry and Corsica
FSv%: Fenwick Save Percentage; The percentage of unblocked shots against a team that are saves (1 – GA/FA)xFSv%: Expected Fenwick Save Percentage; A team or player’s expected Fenwick save percentage (1 – xGA/FA)
Adj.FSv%: Adjusted Fenwick Save Percentage; Observed minus expected Fenwick save percentage (FSv% – xFSv%)
You can see that is hasn't been commonplace over the years for Fleury to outperform his expected save percentage. It is even rarer for him to do this when the sample sizes start to grow. He was very good in 2014-15, but that was a five game series in which the Penguins were dramatically overmatched by the Rangers. If the Penguins win this series Fleury will be starting in at least 14 games for the first time since the 2008-09 season. If he maintains his level of play it will be his finest work in some time.
My big picture view of the Penguins goaltending situation will not change based on the current playoff run. The situation is what it is and we'll sort that stuff out in the offseason. However, I am going to take a lesson a different Mr. Wilson from way back in the early 90's and that lesson is to forget about all the outside noise and to just enjoy the blooming flower in the present because the shelf life doesn't always last very long.
Fleury taped over Niskanen's name on his mask. pic.twitter.com/qmU5SImOIV
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) May 4, 2017
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It's the NHL so there are going to be bad calls in important moments. Last night Nick Bonino drew a phantom high sticking call against TJ Oshie late in the third period. Instead of the Capitals being able to put on a full forced assault on the Pittsburgh Penguins they found themselves playing 5v5 with the goalie pulled. It wasn't a penalty and it snuffed out the Capitals chance to tie the game much like the Penguins did just a few days ago.
Brutal break for Capitals…Oshie called for high stick but never got Bonino pic.twitter.com/A5LehFukjs
— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) May 4, 2017
You could blame Nick Bonino for "diving", but where did he learn that from? The reason he did it is because he saw it work before. The man who taught him that lesson? None other than TJ Oshie himself in last year's second round
It was wrong last year and it was wrong last night. This is the league we watch.
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Justin Schultz scored the game tying goal on Monday night and he scored the game winning goal last night. His tying goal was a lucky deflection. His goal last night was anything but
Justin Schultz goal pic.twitter.com/SZcjSkltbp
— Shane O'Donnell (@shane1342o) May 4, 2017
Just an unreal shot.
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The Penguins defense pairings are still a mess. Usually when we look at possession numbers the range that we focus on stays within the 40-60% area. That is not the case for the Dumoulin-Hainsey and Maatta-Daley pairings. Their numbers have been miserable against the Capitals.
When the best pairing is ~43% that isn't great even if we are dealing with a small sample size.
Being up 3-1 on the Capitals is a great thing, but that doesn't mean you can't continue to look on how to improve. I still say the Penguins could use a shuffling of the deck on the back end.
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Good news on the Sidney Crosby injury front. He skated today
Coach Sullivan: "Sid skated this morning. He is in the process of rehabbing. We'll leave it at that. It's a day-to-day process."
— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) May 4, 2017
While I don't think he'll be ready for Saturday's contest I do think that a potential Game 6 is on the table. Regardless of when he actually returns the fact he is already in full gear skating is the best case scenario in a healing process that takes time.
New Hockey Hurts Podcast is out and discusses Game 4 between the Capitals and Penguins as well as the series as a whole
NEW PODCAST: Caps are on the Brink! https://t.co/cLO4dVNlIE #NHLPLAYOFFS #CapsPens #NHL
— Hockey Hurts (@Hockey_Hurts) May 4, 2017
Thanks for reading!