We’re just two games into the season. The New Jersey Devils lost both and conceded 11 goals in the process.
That has understandably resulted in a ton of early frustration, from the coaching staff, to the players, to the fans. There’s a lot that needs to be addressed so I’m going to run through it all point by point:
1) The hot topic right now in Devils land is Damon Severson. He’s been on for almost every goal against and has made some sloppy plays with the puck. That – along with an up-and-down history – makes him a natural target. I get it. He hasn’t played well and I’m not going to suggest otherwise. What I will say is that he hasn’t played as poorly as everyone wants to believe. Based on shot volume and location, the Devils were expected to score 1.24 goals and allow 1.30 through two games with Severson on the ice (5v5). That’s a 48.86 xGF%. Wrong side of 50, but close to treading water. The results haven’t come close to matching that thus far, as the Devils have scored once with Severson out there and given up six goals. Has he had some poor shifts? Absolutely. But Devils goaltenders have combined to save 72.73% of opposing shots with him on the ice at 5v5. Any player in the league is going to look bad with goaltending like that. For perspective of how ridiculous that is, Brandon Manning (86.84%) and Tomas Hertl (87.58%) were the only two regulars in the NHL last season to finish with an on-ice save percentage below 88. Again, I’m not excusing Severson’s play and saying everything is fine and dandy. It’s not. Everything that could have possibly gone wrong has, though, and he’s far from the only one responsible.
2) The elephant in the room: Jack Hughes’ play. It hasn’t been good. At all. Through two games, the Devils have been out-attempted 33-10, out-chanced 18-5, and out-scored 3-0 with Hughes out there at 5v5. His 23.26 CF% and 21.46 SCF% are good for dead last on the team. Beyond a couple flashy skill plays with the puck, he has not shown much offensively and has looked completely lost defensively. He’s been out-muscled off pucks, slow on the backcheck, late to assignments, the whole nine yards. It’s not at all surprising Hughes has struggled with some of those things. He is an 18-year-old who still needs to fill out. What the Devils need to do is better protect Hughes by putting some defensive prowess and physical ability on his line. Nikita Gusev looks like a below average defender. Miles Wood is a below average defender. Heck, so is Jesper Bratt. Stacking those guys with Hughes is bound to get poor results – at least defensively. My preferred move, as I’ve said all along, would be putting Kyle Palmieri on Hughes’ right wing. He is a natural finisher who can capitalize on the chances Hughes creates. He’s also a bulldog in puck battles, and his defensive ability is very underrated. He seems like the perfect fit. If not Palmieri, I’d even like to see Blake Coleman tested on Hughes’ line. It is crystal clear Hughes needs a player who excels in the areas he currently struggles in to mitigate the issues and help balance things out.
3) I don’t want to see Mirco Mueller on Wednesday. It’s clear he’s far from a good fit alongside Severson and he certainly doesn’t belong anywhere near the top-4. Get him out of the lineup, let him reset, and give Connor Carrick a chance. If you can’t play Carrick after the two games Mueller just had, why is he even on the team?
By the way, it's worth noting Severson has a 55.55 CF% and 62.28 xGF% in his time away from Mueller thus far.
4) Jesper Boqvist better not sit next time out. He made a couple really nice plays with the puck in Buffalo and didn’t back down when things started getting physical. He will give the team a much better chance at success than John Hayden.
5) Please, please, please, don’t be one of those people saying Taylor Hall has been quiet. He has found the scoresheet in both games and leads the way in shot attempts, shots on goal, and chances. Last night he recorded 600 more shot contributions than the next closest Devil. He is legitimately the last of my concerns.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com or tracked manually Recent Posts Predicting the 2019-20 Stanley Cup Final