Earlier in the week I discussed the Penguins goaltending situation and how it was a strength heading into 2019-20. Last year both Matt Murray and Casey DeSmith were really good. After Matt Murray came back from injury he had a .934 5v5 save percentage, a .844 high-danger save percentage at 5v5, and he saved 18.03 goals above an average goaltender. Only Ben Bishop at 19.88 was better in this somewhat arbitrary timeline. The point is Matt Murray was excellent.
When you get goaltending that good it becomes intoxicating. All the way to the point where your GM will declare it is the best defensive group he's had since taking over. Other people also start to get the idea that maybe the Penguins defense is actually... good?
Latest is our Primer series looks at Penguins’ defense. Why it might be better than you think.#Pens | â¦@TheAthleticPGHâ© https://t.co/BmvAxVP4a0
— Rob Rossi (@Real_RobRossi) August 28, 2019
About that...
As far as giving up shot attempts go last year was the worst the Penguins have been since the analytic era began in the 2007-08 season. If you take out the 2012-13 half season, which screws up the data, the Penguins have been a pretty good defensive team for the past decade. Dan Bylsma teams were pretty good at limiting the looks the other team had. Since Mike Sullivan has taken over things have gotten progressively worse from a CA/60 perspective. This *can* be OK if you are all in on being a skilled offensive team willing to trade chances. The 2015-16 Penguins are a great example of a team built in this way. It is also great hockey to watch.
Since the summer of 2017 we all know what has happened with the roster moves. There was a shift and that shift has resulted in targeting less dynamic players who are limited. The Penguins are relying on quite a number of wingers who are "tweeners". Guys that are probably not full-time top six players, but can do it in a pinch. On paper this is not a dynamic offensive front outside of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and maybe Jake Guentzel. Phil Kessel is and his point per game average is gone. The tweeners are going to have to pick up the slack, but they'll need help. It means the defense is going to have to pick up some of the slack. They are going to have to be good at helping the forwards transition and create offense in the opponent's zone. I'm not seeing it.
Kris Letang is amazing. He makes everyone better. He is a bonafide #1 defenseman and one of the best in the league. No problems there.
Brian Dumoulin is a very competent top pairing defender... with Kris Letang. He's certainly not a bad player, but his results away from Letang are not the same.
Considering Brian Dumoulin gets some of the most favorable usage on the team his 5v5 points per 60 of 0.74 the past three years is very pedestrian. The good news for Dumoulin and the Penguins is that they will play him with Letang and they will be a great pairing.
Marcus Pettersson is an intriguing player. There are encouraging signs about him. His numbers with Gudbranson were positive. It is time to find out if he can have the same effect on Justin Schultz.
That is because Justin Schultz is deployment dependant. He drowned in Edmonton after being placed in a role that was above his capabilities. When he's been sheltered in Pittsburgh or given favorable usage he has been very good. When he gets placed with bad partners and given a heavy workload it has had results among the league's worst. The Penguins need to remember why Schultz was available in the first place because they are making the same mistakes Edmonton did.
Jack Johnson and Erik Gudbranson have huge sample sizes of not being very good. Johnson hasn't shown anything in his first season with the Penguins things will be any different. Remember all that talk about Johnson finding his game midway through the season? I wonder if that was after December 15th when Matt Murray was playing at a Vezina level? We don't have to wonder his on-ice save percentage was .935 after December 15. From the beginning of the season to December 14th it was .900. On-ice save percentage shapes narratives for those that ignore it. He was the same player throughout the year.
Looking towards next year the Penguins defense is not better. It is not the best since Jim Rutherford took over. They are the worst Penguins team in the analytics era at suppressing shots. They are a Kris Letang injury away from crumbling and mightily struggling. People don't want to hear that, but it is reality. The folks who point out the Penguins record without Kris Letang in March last year never include the pesky on-ice save percentage stat which bailed the Penguins out. Great goaltending hides so many things for better or worse.
Things will be fine if Murray and DeSmith are awesome again. Things will probably get dicey if they are league average. It will be very problematic, as it would for most teams, if they are below league average.
The elephant in the room is the Penguins defense and they better hope their goalies are up for the task again.
Thanks for reading!