It has been a rocky start to the season for the Lightning, but the silver lining has been Ondrej Palat and his reemergence as an impact player. In Saturday’s game against the Predators, Palat demonstrated how he can alter the outcome of a contest in both conspicuous and subtle ways.
Trailing Nashville 1-0 in the first period, Tampa Bay got to try their luck with the man advantage. Palat was stationed as the net-front presence on the power play, and after a Nikita Kucherov shot, Palat steered the bouncing puck to Steven Stamkos in the slot.
Palat’s retrieval thwarted two Predators defensemen: first Ryan Ellis, who was trying to jostle with Palat in the low slot, and then Roman Josi, who Palat slipped the pass by.
Palat did not just create a goal; he prevented one too. With less than two minutes left in the third, he proceeded to deny a pass intended for Kyle Turris in the slot, which salvaged a point for the Lightning as they then headed into overtime. Palat read the feed to Turris perfectly, and instead of intercepting the puck and risking a confrontation with him, Palat shoveled it out of the slot and toward the boards.
Palat had his fingerprints on other sequences as well. He had one entry where he swung the pass to Victor Hedman, who shot-passed it to Point in the low slot. In another instance, when Palat did the gritty work along the boards in the Bolts’ own zone, his area pass spurred a two-on-one chance for Kucherov and Point. Most players with an injury history whose production is tailing off do not get a second wind at age 28. But Palat is taking a jackhammer to that wisdom.
The last two years were difficult for him. He has been plagued by injuries, missing 44 games, and in the contests in which he has appeared, his scoring has been below his career marks. From 2013-14 through 2016-17, Palat scored at a pace of 20 goals a season. In the last two years, his goal-scoring rate dropped to 13. Also, Palat’s efficacy has always derived more from his two-way play and ability to create than his knack for potting goals. There was a dip in those facets too during his last two seasons. His assists rate per 82 games sunk from 39 to 34.
Of the top-nine Lightning forwards in 2018-19, only Tyler Johnson had a worse Corsi Plus-Minus than Palat. The possession metrics would be excusable if Palat was starting every faceoff in the defensive zone, but his situation was, in fact, the opposite. He had the most advantageous zone starts of anyone on the Lightning last year. More than Kucherov and Mikhail Sergachev.
What a difference a year makes! Palat already has three goals and two assists. He is tied for fourth with Brayden Point in Corsi Plus-Minus (and is ahead of Kucherov and Stamkos). Palat also has the fourth hardest zone starts on the Lightning.
The Lightning’s announcing crew has discussed how Palat got leaner in the offseason, and it shows. He looks faster. All of a sudden, he is winning races to loose pucks, tracking down opposing forwards and disrupting their rush chances, and creating offense on the rush and cycle. Last year, Palat was a frustrating player because he played top-six minutes, but his contribution was not commensurate with his role. Not the case this season. His work in all three zones makes him a valuable addition to any line, and with the Lightning trying to taper back their freewheeling style and instead assert a system of play more conducive to the postseason, Palat’s power forward game fits nicely in the mold. Having players who can track pucks down below the circles and be conscientious in their own zone is something that was missing from Tampa Bay last year, and the Blue Jackets seized on that vulnerability.
It is early, but from my vantage point, I had thought Palat and his contract were a problem, something the Bolts would be wise to trade if possible since his play was clearly dwindling. Instead, the Lightning’s patience has been rewarded. As a player who doesn’t need the puck to succeed, he can be influential doing the dirty work and helping to put the stars and shooters in scoring position. If Palat can sustain this play, he is part of the solution.