1) I was looking at Nico Hischier's scoring rates from this season and found something interesting and encouraging: he is the only draft eligible player in the CHL to finish top-5 in even-strength goals per 60 and even-strength assists per 60.
Hischier averaged 1.37 goals per 60, which tied him with Patrick for 5th, while finishing 4th with 1.67 assists per 60.
I don't know that I'd consider him an elite goal scorer but he has a deceptive release and shoots a lot so he should get his fair share at the NHL level. What I really love about Hischier, though, is playmaking and ability to dissect defenses. I think he's at another level in that regard and perhaps the best in this draft class.
2) Nolan Patrick has a more powerful shot than Hischier and, perhaps as a result, the perception seems to be that he's the better goal scorer of the two. While that could prove to be true, I think the two are a lot closer in scoring talent than many realize.
This season Patrick scored 1.37 goals per 60 minutes of even-strength ice and averaged .60 goals per game. Hischier scored 1.37 goals/60 and averaged .66 goals per game.
If you prefer to look at 2015-16, where Patrick was completely healthy and played big minutes on a powerhouse Brandon team, to get a better indication of his scoring ability, the results are nearly the same. Patrick scored 1.38 goals per 60 at evens and averaged .57 goals per game.
Obviously, that was his draft-1 season but he was less than a week away from being eligible last year, and he had an elite supporting cast, so I don't think it's unfair to use last year's numbers to help paint the picture.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that after watching a lot of tape, looking through data, and tracking some of my own, I don't think Patrick's advantages over Hischier in some areas are as big as many would have you think. Goal scoring may be one of them.
A few weeks ago I was really on the fence but the more research I do, the more confident I am saying Hischier should be the No. 1 pick.
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