As we sat in the media meal last night, on the events level of the TD Bank Garden, the general consensus among the hockey folks was, "Before Game 1 I thought this would be a long series, but now I think Boston is just too good." It was basically unanimous, the Bruins were going to win the Stanley Cup, and they were going to win it as soon as possible...
But many of you who read my stuff know by now that I tend to be counter to that kind of thinking. Why? Well, have you been watching hockey for a while? Don't we know how this works yet?
Hockey is about four things. Everyone mentions two of them, right?
1. Skill 2. Hard-Work
But I would argue there are two other factors...factors which are always determining factors when looking at a hockey game. Factors which are amplified to a higher status in the playoffs...
The Four Factors That Determine a Winner in Hockey.
1. Skill 2. Hard-Work 3. Desperation 4. Momentum
If you can own three of those factors you will likely win the game. If the factors are split evenly there is a fifth factor to cast the tie-breaking vote...
5. Luck
So as I sat there last night, hearing EVERYONE talking about how Boston would roll the Blues it occurred to me that the Bruins and Blues were pretty much evened up on these factors going into the game...
SKILL
I will give this one slightly to the Bruins, but not by more than say 1 point...The Blues defense is crazy skilled.
Hard-Work
This is the Stanley Cup Final...These teams arent here if they are NOT Hard-working teams. I have to call this one" EVEN
Momentum
The Bruins had this one going into the game last night. They had put the Blues in their place and felt confident for sure...
Desperation
As much as the Bruins had the momentum, the Blues owned the desperation in spades last night St. Louis knew they had to win and the Bruins had won 8 playoff games in a row. Plus they were at home...It was going to be really tough to keep up the work-ethic without desperation....
So were I to assign points to these going into the game, it might look something like
Talent: Boston +1 Hard Work: EVEN Momentum: Boston +3 Desperation Blues +4
So it was even...or at least close to even
and Lady Luck gets to cast the deciding vote...
Which she did. The Blues hit a post late in the game, and then Pastrnak ALONE in the slot with less than a minute left just HITS Binnington....that is not a knock on Binnington, he gets tons of credit for being in position to let the puck hit him...I am just saying there is not a goalie in the NHL/World who is stopping that Pastrnak shot if it is 6 inches higher...
The Blues did indeed out-work the Bruins last night, and Rask was amazing to keep that game 2-2 after 3....They out-worked the Bruins because they were more deperate...those two factors always go hand in hand...
Going back to St Louis these factors again shift...The Bruins desperation level will rise to even with the Blues, but the Momentum shifts back to the Blues. The excitement of their first home Cup Final game in 50 years after they won Game 2....The factors favor the Blues in game 3...
But who do you see winning Game 3?