Thanks to everyone who took the time to submit questions to Mike’s Mailbag! I have the benefit of some hindsight when answering now that a few days have passed, but here are my answers to your questions on the Ottawa Senators, National Hockey League, and life itself.
Alex asks: Some of the kids seem on the cusp of breaking into the NHL (Brown & Batherson, especially). What more do they need to prove in the AHL before they get called up for good? Also, it would help if DJ would provide these kids with offensive opportunities as opposed to sheltered 3rd & 4th line minutes.
Hindsight is really useful to illustrate a larger point with this one, actually. We’ve since seen Logan Brown come up from Belleville and look like he belongs. The sample size is minute, but his expected goal share at five-on-five is north of 70% since he was called up. That leads the team.
What does this tell us? It tells us that there’s plenty of reason to give the kids a shot. Giving them a shot means more than playing them down the lineup, as you note. It’s about creating opportunities for them to be counted on, for them to thrive, and for them to be everyday, contributing Ottawa Senators. Hopefully the example Brown has set early on here provides DJ Smith with ample evidence that it can work.
Steve asks: What’s wrong with Belleville? They should be one of the better AHL teams with all the talent there.
I think a lot of it stems from the blue line. Ottawa has a lot of talented forwards stashed down in Belleville, but the defense is woefully thin comparatively. The team just announced that Frank Corrado has signed a PTO, which should hopefully provide a stabling presence that can help to fix things.
Rob asks: Why would the Senators send Vitaly Abramov down when he played so well and scored a goal? Let the kid play!
No argument from me. The Senators are going to be bad this year, but so far the most entertaining moments have been the ones that include young players doing exciting things. The whole “let the kids marinate in a winning AHL environment… argument hasn’t panned out, as evidenced by Steve’s question, so why not at least see what young players can do with an extended look at the NHL level? The yo-yo-ing of prospects, from my perspective, just creates confusion. Sometimes a certain level of stability can breed results.
Alex asks: Do you think Dorion makes a trade to push the rebuild along/address the lack of star talent (a la Matt Duchene)?
No, my hope is that he learned his lesson. This team isn’t ready to compete; there would be no point to making such a move. Let the talent grow internally and organically, and count on there being a potential superstar or two available at next June’s draft.
Travis asks: Which brawl did you like better? Sens vs. Flyers 04 or Sens vs. Buffalo 07
I’m not big on fighting in hockey, but I’ll take Sens vs. Flyers 04 here. Any brawl that results in a not-insignificant rule change has to be the winner, right?
GalacticStone asks: Let's beat this dead horse again. Is there any plausible scenario you can envision where Melnyk sells the team or is no longer the primary owner? They will never become a contender on a shoe-string budget like Melnyk is trying to get away with. For Ottawa to take that next step upwards, they need somebody with deeper pockets who makes smarter decisions. For fans and players (and probably all of the staff), this has to feel like running in circles over and over again.
*Any* scenario? Sure. Likely short-term scenario? No. If you look at the Karlsson/Stone/Duchene departures as sunk costs, Melnyk sticking around right now doesn’t hurt the on-ice product. The team is rebuilding. No amount of money spent in free agency was going to turn this group into a contender. The only big test Melnyk has faced recently was the Chabot extension, and dollars didn’t prevent that from happening.
Right now, I think Senators fans just have to sit back and block out the noise. While it’d be nice to stay out of the news for more than a week at a time, there’s nothing a new owner would do today that would change the on-ice fortunes of the team in 2019-20. We’ll have to see what happens when this team is ready to compete, and needs to spend more money in the process. Maybe then we get some clarity on the long-term ownership situation.
AlfieisKing asks: With the top pick in 2020 being Lafreniere (LW), would it make fans more satisfied to get the center, Byfield, assuming that there wasn’t a large gap between the two? Do you agree that the biggest concern moving forward is down the middle, even with White, Brown, and Norris?
I think fans would be satisfied with either. Even if a team finishes last, there’s no guarantee that it will end up with the first overall pick. If Ottawa is lucky enough to be in that spot, fans will be thrilled.
More to the point of your question, though: The team should take the best player available. If you assume that there’s absolutely no gap between the two, then I do think it makes sense to lean towards a C. It’s easier for a center to move to the wing than vice versa, and Edmonton’s McDavid and Draisaitl have shown that doing so can be quite productive.
I would also agree with your proposition that the priority area up front has to be down the middle.
Starsky asks: What would be considered a successful season for Lassi Thomson?
I think confidence and health are the key here. All the scouting reports when Thomson was drafted marveled at the offensive tools, but questioned his defensive game and awareness. Choosing to leave the WHL for the Finnish Elite League means that Thomson will be playing against grown men, which isn’t an easy task for a player who doesn’t stand particularly tall or wide. Getting better on the defensive side of the puck might be challenging in that kind of environment.
It’s clear that the offensive skills are there – just check out his point totals in Finland for evidence of that – but success for me will be determined when he comes back to camp next year healthy and confident after a competitive year against bigger players.
Starsky asks: What do you think JBD’s potential is and do you think he’s being slept on as a prospect? I love this player. I’m not sure that he’s being slept on as a prospect, but I certainly think that he’s got a ton of potential. The jump from the AJHL to the US college scene isn’t a small one, but JBD was able to do it without issue. Now in his second season with North Dakota, he is already playing at a point-per-game pace through six games played. Even though that’s primarily attributable to a single four-point game, it’s still incredibly promising.
Code asks: Who do you think is the next Sens captain?
I’d throw the C on Mark Borowiecki, but my hunch is that they’ll give it to a younger guy like Chabot or Tkachuk next year.
Octavarium asks: Other than the quiet cancellation of the search for a President of Hockey Ops… it’s been a prolonged period of peace in Sens land. Which of these “next issues… do you think will boil over first? A) Low fan turnout/apathy, B) Low corporate support/apathy – general distrust of owner, or C) Owner! Or owner’s health
I think those are all really just variances of the same thing.
All Chabot the Benjamins asks: If you’re offered a mid round 2020 1st for any one of the Sens’ current top prospects, do you do it?
Who do you consider to be the top prospects? Without any specifics, I’ll say no. That’s not to say there isn’t a deal out there that might make sense.
Texas Ranger asks: Are you excited about the meme potential a Josh Norris call up has? You know, Tkachuk Norris?
Ha. Michael asks: Will the league allow a new owner to relocate the Sens ASAP?
This doesn’t seem necessary.
Wild asks: Will a total boycott of the Senators Games drive the NHL to switch Senators ownership?
No. You’d never get to a *total* boycott, and even in their current situation the Senators still have far more support that some other teams around the league.
Seb asks: Do you believe Pierre Dorion is competent enough to build a Stanley Cup contender?
This is a really interesting question. I don’t think there’s any General Manager in the league who is more difficult to objectively evaluate than Pierre Dorion. While some are quick to discount him because of his “proud day… comments on the Mark Stone trade, I struggle to find any glaring red flags with Dorion’s recent tenure. He’s been put in a tough spot, without the resources that some of his counterparts have available to them.
What can we evaluate Dorion on objectively? The rebuild. The mark of a good rebuild is acquiring as many picks and prospects as possible. He’s done that better than many who try. He is successfully building something special. Whether he has the capacity to turn it into a contender remains to be seen, but I think it’s too early to make any judgments on that front.
Athrin asks: Are you concerned about the total lack of production for Chabot, Brady, and the other young players so far?
The production for Tkachuk doesn’t really scare me. It’ll come. Per Natural Stat Trick, Tkachuk has a five-on-five shot attempt share of north of 50%, and one of the best five-on-five expected goal shares on the team at 58.42%. He’s doing a lot of things right. I would be more concerned if the lack of tangible production was coupled with worrying underlying numbers.
Chabot is a bit of a different case. The Zaitsev pairing continues to produce… questionable results. They need more than a 45% expected goal share at five-on-five from their cornerstone defender, and the only way to get that might be to separate him from Zaitsev. Short-term bad trends can turn into long-term bad habits, which would be absolutely catastrophic given the contract commitment that was just made.
--
As always, thanks for reading!