MELTZER'S MUSINGS: MARCH 30, 2018
1) The Flyers have returned from Denver, site of their 2-1 win on Wednesday over the Colorado Avalanche, but will not practice on Friday. There is simply more benefit in giving the team an additional day of rest following a stretch that saw the club play three games in four nights across the eastern, central and mountain time zones (and the altitude factor of playing in Denver, something with which the Avs players get used to over the course of 41 home games a season but which many visiting team players have historically struggled to cope).
The team will reconvene on the ice at the Skate Zone in Voorhees on Saturday before hosting the Boston Bruins on Sunday afternoon. The Bruins, who took over first place in the Atlantic Division with a victory over Tampa Bay on Thursday, will host the Florida Panthers on Saturday before coming to Philly. Boston enjoys the NHL's largest positive goal differential this season, having scored 57 more goals than they've allowed (253-196).
The current three-night schedule break for the Flyers is the team's final one of the season, and their first since the NHL All-Star Break in late January. Exiting breaks of three nights or more, the Flyers are 4-2-0.
The Flyers will have an on-paper fatigue factor benefit on Sunday, as the Bruins will be playing for the third time in less than four nights while Philly will have been off for the three previous nights and at home waiting for the Bruins on the back end of Boston's weekend home-road matinees. While this is far from a guarantee of the more rested team winning the game, it does add to the degree of difficulty for the tired opponent as the match progresses. Third periods like the one the Flyers had in Colorado, in which they barely clung on for dear life in the final few minutes to close out a one-goal win, are not at all uncommon across the NHL.
2) In terms of making the playoffs at all, the Flyers currently have a magic number of 7 to insurmountably stave off the Florida Panthers on points.
How it works: if Florida won all six of its remaining games, it would finish with 98 points. The Flyers would need 7 points in its final four games (3-0-1) to get to 99 points. Each and every possible point that the Flyers earn and/or Florida does NOT earn further reduces the Philadelphia magic number.
For example, if the Bruins beat the Panthers in regulation on Saturday, the Panthers could then finish with a maximum 96 points. The Flyers would then go into Sunday's game against Boston with a magic number of 5 and a chance to cut it to 4 with a regulation point and 3 with a win of any variety.
As far as the tiebreaker goes in the event of a dead heat in points, the Flyers currently hold a one ROW (37-36) edge on Florida. With the Flyers having four games left (maximum 41 ROW) and Florida having six left (maximum 42 ROW), this tiebreaker could come down to the wire if it ends up mattering.
If both ROW and points end up tied, the next potential tiebreaker is points from head-to-head games. In situations where a season series between two teams has an odd number of games (3), the NHL tosses out the result of the first home game for the team with the extra home match in the season series. That works to the Flyers' benefit in this case.
The NHL's tiebreaking procedures means that the Panthers' 3-2 regulation win over the Flyers on Dec. 28 does not count for tiebreaker purposes. Instead, the only ones that matter are the Flyers' 5-1 home win over the Panthers on Oct. 17 and the Panthers' 4-1 home win over the Flyers on March 4. Thus, the secondary tiebreaker will be a 2-2 dead heat for standings purposes. Thus, if the both points and ROW for the Flyers and Panthers end up equal, the final tiebreaker that would be applied is both teams' total goals for/against differential. The Flyers are currently ahead +2 in that category.
The Flyers' outlook on the races for second place (home ice in round 1 against the third-place finisher), third place (guaranteed playoff spot, insulated from a non-divisional wildcard team's record) and the higher Eastern Conference wildcard (a first-round matchup against the Metro Division winner) is below.
3) The one thing the idle Flyers did not want on Thursday from the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and New Jersey Devils was a three-point night. Any outcome in regulation, whichever way it went, would have a significant benefit as well a significant drawback to Philadelphia. The least desirable outcome was an overtime decision.
The result: Same as last Friday, except with the opposite winner this time. The Penguins prevailed in OT on a goal by Sidney Crosby.
The impact: The Penguins moved back to two points ahead of the Flyers in the push for second place in the Metro. In reality, it is a three-point gap. Pittsburgh also clinched the ROW tiebreaker (42-37) with the Flyers only having four games left on the schedule. However, even entering the game, Pittsburgh had already clinched the secondary tiebreaker of head-to-head points with Philly only mathematically able to tie the Pens in ROW by winning out in regulation/OT decisions.
The news was better in the push for the Flyers to stay out of the lower wildcard spot, which would necessitate playing the Atlantic Division winner in the first round of the playoffs. The Devils narrowed the gap behind the Flyers to three points with one game in hand but the Flyers still retain a 37-35 ROW edge. If the Devils were to pull even in ROW and the final standings were to come down to the secondary tiebreaker of head-to-head points, the Flyers clinched it with five points in the now-completed season series to four for New Jersey.
The Devils stand a good chance on Saturday of drawing back to with a single point and one ROW of the Flyers before Philly takes the ice again. New Jersey hosts the New York Islanders. While the Islanders stepped out to beat Pittsburgh, 4-1, on March 20, the Isles have only three wins in their last 10 games (3-6-1) and are playing out the string with five games left in their disappointing season. No team in the NHL has yielded more goals against than the porous Islanders (279, seven more than Otttawa in the same number of games).
4) It was quickly apparent on Thursday that the Flyers would not be getting any assistance from the Calgary Flames against the visiting Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus went ahead early and never looked back in a 5-1 blowout. The Blue Jackets moved back ahead of the Flyers in the Metro standings by one point (93-92) and one ROW (38-37).
One way of looking at it: the Blue Jackets have had to win 11 of their last 12 games to create the narrowest of leads over the Flyers. No team can stay that hot forever. Another way to view it: the Flyers have points in seven straight games (4-0-3) and still trail the Blue Jackets in both points and the primary tiebreaker. The Flyers have left four points on the table over the course of March due to late-game goals against or shootout losses has been a boon to both Columbus and Pittsburgh this month. Then again, both the Blue Jackets and Penguins beat the Flyers in head-to-head meetings in March.
Columbus closes out its western Canada road trip on Saturday with a game in Vancouver. The woeful Canucks (29-40-9) suddenly have a 3-game winning streak. The Canucks surprised even themselves last weekend by blowing out a demoralized Dallas Stars team one night after Dallas suffered a crushing third period collapse against Boston. The Canucks then rattled off a 4-1 win over Anaheim and followed it up with a 2-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday.
After returning from the current road trip, Columbus hosts Detroit. Ever since the team came up with a shootout win over the Flyers on March 20 to end a 10-game losing streak, the Wings have been a tough out for playoff teams. They were nipped by Washington (1-0) and Toronto (4-3) after beating the Flyers. This week, Detroit has won back-to-back games, including a 5-2 win over Pittsburgh on Tuesday.
Following the Detroit game, the Blue Jackets host the Penguins on Thursday in a game that could have enormous standings impact both on those teams and the Flyers (who host pesky Carolina the same night). The Columbus regular season closes out next Saturday on the road against the Nashville Predators. Peter Laviolette's team will likely have already clinched both the Central Division and Western Conference championships before then, so it will be a meaningless game for the Predators and a potentially vital one for Columbus depending on how the lead-up matches go for John Tortorella's team and its closest competitors in the East.
5) My view of playoff matchups can be summed up this way: Worry about what's within your team's control as it approaches the regular season finish line and then worry later about which opponent the club will face. It's my belief that every playoff-position team in the Metro -- Penguins and Capitals included -- has exploitable flaws. It's not just the Flyers, which is why the race has been so tight down the stretch.
Some Metro clubs have a bit more frontline and/or secondary scoring pop than others. None are especially deep on the blueline. Several of the teams have had inconsistent goaltending, with the Flyers having the biggest question marks as to who will be in net and what to expect. Even two-time Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky, who has a strong season, will have to get over the mental hurdle of past playoff struggles.
Something that many folks have missed about the Penguins is how many even strength goals the team gives up. Pittsburgh ranks tied with non-playoff team Carolina for 27th in the NHL in that category. None of the six teams immediately above the Penguins and Hurricanes (Vancouver, Buffalo, Arizona, Detroit, Chicago, Edmonton) will make the playoffs. Nor will any of the three below the Penguins (NY Rangers, NY Islanders, Ottawa).
It is very hard for a team to simply score its way to the Stanley Cup, which is what the Penguins will have to try to do this time around. This year's edition of the Penguins is NOT as good as last year's Cup-winning team and last year's squad wasn't quite as good as the all-around dominant squad that steamrolled its way to the 2015-16 Cup. The Penguins replaced the free agency departure of Nick Bonino by trading for Derick Brassard to center the third line. While that made Pittsburgh an even-tougher line matchup team for opponents, the trade came at the cost of some blueline depth (and, longer term, a first-round pick and a good goaltending prospect) that ended up going to Columbus when Ottawa flipped Ian Cole (seven points, +12 in 16 games with the Blue Jackets).
In terms of "rooting" to play a certain team, be very careful of what you wish for, because you may just get it. The fact that the Flyers won three of four regular season games against Washington does not make them an ideal opponent for the first round nor does the Flyers 0-2-2 mark against Pittsburgh preclude a potential upset of the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions but "upset" is the operative word. The Penguins would be favored to beat Philly, and rightfully so. Then again, so would Washington or Columbus. So let the chips fall where they may, and play whoever is front of you.
That said, I do think it is important for the Flyers to stay above the lower wildcard spot. Realistically, I do not think there is much of a roadmap for a Philly to win a best-of-seven against either the Lightning or Bruins.
6) The trade that brought Petr Mrazek over from the Red Wings was a fair one for both sides. However, once the trade was made, it pretty much precluded any other trade deadline deals for the Flyers. If the Flyers are to get the scoring depth and/or blueline depth to win a playoff round, it's going to have to come from rookies stepping up and/or someone like Jordan Weal or Valtteri Filppula chipping in a few goals in a playoff series.
The Mrazek deal temporarily tied up four trade assets (2018 second-round, 2018 third-round, 2018 fourth-round, and 2019 third-round picks) even if only one of the picks will ultimately change hands and go to Detroit. Anyone who knows Ron Hextall knew there wouldn't be any other moves of significance for the stretch drive and playoffs this year. Within his limited comfort range of dealing draft picks, he pretty expended all of the flexibility he had. There was no way that a first-round pick was going to be traded unless a young or career prime impact player was coming back to Philly, which simply wasn't going to happen.
The structure of the Mrazek trade was done in such a way that the compensation owed to the Red Wings was equally scaled to reflect both the Flyers success as a team and Mrazek's contributions toward it. While the results so far have been mixed, Mrazek has hit the requisite 5 wins to increase the compensation from a 2018 fourth-round to 2018 third-round pick if the Flyers also earn a playoff spot.
The condition for the third round pick to turn into a 2018 second-round pick sets the bar extremely high. The Flyers would have to reach the Eastern Conference Final (8 wins required) with Mrazek winning six of the games along the way.
An added stipulation: If the Flyers re-sign Mrazek as a restricted free agent this summer, the Red Wings will also receive the Flyers' 2019 third-round pick. Subsequently, the Flyers acquired a 2019 third-rounder from Edmonton (originally belonging to New Jersey) in the deal that sent to the Oilers the rights to University of Michigan center Cooper Marody.
Given Mrazek's extreme inconsistency since his acquisition and the hefty qualifying offer price tag to avoid him becoming an unrestricted free agent, it seems right now that his stay in Philly will be a short one. However, that could still change under several circumstances:
A) Mrazek unexpectedly builds a hot streak that lasts through a deep playoff run and parlays it into a contract extension with the Flyers.
B) The Flyers find a way to rid themselves of the final contract year of serially injured Michal Neuvirth, and Mrazek is willing to take a "prove-it" pay cut on a one-year or two-year contract agreement or via salary arbitration.
C) Brian Elliott's own recent injury issues do not end with his pending return from core muscle surgery and the Flyers still have two goaltending jobs in limbo as they plan for next season.
Even if one of these scenarios play out, the Flyers may still opt to move on from Mrazek and look elsewhere for next season. They would opt to stay with Elliott for the remainder of his contract and seek a different short-term backup than Neuvirth (perhaps staying in-house with restricted free agent Alex Lyon) while grooming Carter Hart for the long term.
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PHANTOMS IN ACTION
The Lehigh Valley Phantoms host the Providence Bruins at the PPL Center in Allentown on Friday night. The club holds a seven-point lead over the Wilkes Barre/ Scranton Penguins and an eight-point lead over the Bruins. The Phantoms have eight remaining regular season games while the Pens and Bruins have nine.
Second-year forward Nicolas Aube-Kubel has served his two-game suspension by the AHL (his second in less than a month) and will be available to play in Friday's game. Third-year defenseman Samuel Morin remains sidelined by injury and is not yet at the stage where he's skating with the team.
Swedish goalie prospect Felix Sandström is not eligible to play for the Phantoms next season due to the NHL out-clause structure of his SHL contract with HV71, and will not be signing an ATO for the rest of this season. However, he's been with the team this past week at practice.
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CHL PLAYOFF UPDATES: THURSDAY GAMES
* OHL: The Owen Sound Attack wrapped up a first-round sweep of the London Knights with a 2-1 road win on Thursday. Maksim Sushko, who scored the game-winner in Game One of the series, missed the clinching game due to injury.
* OHL: Sarnia Sting forward Anthony Salinitri also remains sidelined by injury (believed to be a shoulder or collarbone issue). On Thursday, the Windsor Spitfires knotted their series with the Sting at two games apiece with a 3-1 win. The scene shifts back to Sarnia on Friday, with game six in Windsor on Saturday.
* WHL: The Kelowna Rockets entered their first-round playoff series with the Tri-City Americans with home ice advantage. They exited as the victims of a four-game sweep that was completed on Thursday with a 5-3 road loss. Playing his final game of junior hockey, Carsen Twarynski had an assist in a losing cause. He finished the series with two goals, four points, four penalty minutes and a minus-one rating. Twarynski will likely join the Phantoms for the rest of the AHL season, although he may not get into any playoff games.