We can dissect the loss to the Avalanche all day long. It won't change the result but don't ignore one thing, there are more problems with this team that simply saying its goaltending or defence, or offence, or systems or coaching. It's not one it's many, and with teams as inconsistent as the Jets you never really know what problem will rise to the surface at any given time.
This is why the Jets have the record they do, and why they are inconsistent. The team never really eradicates any one problem for very long, or ever.
Let's focus on one thing that seems to get ignored when looking at the team, how they win. The Jets allow a lot of goals. That is a problem because it means there is more pressure on the offence to score more if a win is to occur. The 'why' of allowing goals is a different issue so accept that they do. They have allowed the most in the league this year at 172.
They are 6th in the league in scoring with a 161 goals, behind the top teams of Pittsburgh, Rangers, Minnesota, Columbus, and Washington. That's pretty good company to be in right?
This should be a better team in terms of record, but instead they sit 23rd overall while the other teams are all top 10 in the league with 4 being the top 4 teams. This cannot go overlooked but the problem is where to put the blame and Jets fans are certainly looking for the culprit to take ownership of this problem.
The part of inconsistency that is often overlooked is preparation for a game. That's not just watching film or knowing the opposition, that's the easy part of preparation. A team that is prepared for playing is ready to dictate the flow and pace of the game, by executing their game plan and countering the opposition's game plan.
How often does that happen?
Right now the Jets rarely are able to grind out wins. Let's clarify what 'grind' means as it's sued here: win low scoring games. That means winning 1-0, 2-1, 3-2 or 3-1 or 2-0. The kind of game that requires a strategic effort to counter what the opposition does. Now to be fair strategic games can also be higher scoring affairs to but often we overlook those as being run and gun games or with poor goaltending.
Until February 4 there have been 728 NHL this season where 2 or less goals were allowed. Without being a spreadsheet master I took a sample size of 280 games and found that within that sample 229 of those games resulted in a win or 81.7% of the time.
The Jets have only had 16 games out 54 where they have allowed 2 or less goals. In those 16 games they have 15 wins and one loss. Looking a bit deeper in those low scoring games against the Jets have scored 3 or more goals 11 times.
While most of these numbers reinforce that the goals against this year have been a calamitous state it appears nothing is really being done to address it. In the 16 games played this year 2017, the Jets have only allowed less than 3 goals two times. Sure look at the goaltending but also look at a couple of other things.
The Jets are not terrible at generating chances and they are not terrible at preventing them either so what is causing this problem of allowing so many goals? Right now their rolling average of CF% is dropping off a cliff, it's bad and on the season it's now below 50%. A low event team on offence might be getting worse and that's a sign of something else perhaps and yesterday was perhaps the biggest eye-test example of what.
The Jets were completely and utterly disrupted by the Avalanche. They had not control of positioning or players in their own zone with mistake after mistake being made. Whatever system they are playing in the defensive zone is clearly not being executed in an effective way. Consider that the best way to generate offence is to transition the puck out of the defensive zone and how difficult that is the for the Jets to do sometimes. Then remind yourself of what you saw yesterday.
I'll make a big assumption here, and get blood flowing with this statement: an easily disrupted team in it's defensive zone is more likely to give up shots that are harder for it's goalie to save. Combine that notion with the quality of goaltending the Jets have had this season and it's easy to conclude that the poor systems execution could have a large role in the scoring chances the Jets face.
There's lots of meat on that bone to pick at, I know. Furthermore I'll be bluntly honest, I don't have the skills to mine the data to verify my theory. I think the two problems go hand in hand and what I saw yesterday seems to support my beliefs. It doesn't happen every game but when looking at the rolling average of CF, one on a downward trajectory, something is going wrong and the team is not figuring out how to combat the problem.
Now the challenge comes when the coach is trying to find a way to get a goalie 'going'. That hope that some one between the pipes can out-play the problems. It's almost like some of the line combinations and PP formations we see where the impression on fans is one of confusion. The player usage and selection that comes with each line-up and game that confounds some logic. The... well it goes on and on.
However you look at the picture, from the net out, or the forwards back, problems exist for this team that don't get addressed. Maybe that's not right, they probably do get addressed but never fixed, or eradicated as I presented earlier.
The Jets simply don't win enough games when it's low scoring. Nope 11 of their 25 wins this season are low scoring wins. Jets can't win enough when they score goals either but they have 21 wins in 30 games where they scored 3 or more goals. However as we have seen they give up goals in an almost equal fashion.
I'm confused, and I don't imagine I'm alone. This is a very puzzling team and right now, no one including the coach(es) seem to be able to figure it out. So, bemoan the loss. Bemoan the hard facts that this team is an enigma in terms of identity, systems and personnel. Where do you want to start the fix first?