Leveling criticism at the Tampa Bay Lightning is sticky business. They are in first place in the NHL and have the best goal differential in the league at +55. But as the Washington Capitals would tell you in confidence, besides qualifying for the playoffs, the regular season does not mean jack squat. So every Lightning win – like last night’s 5-4 victory on the second game of a back-to-back in Dallas – is painted in the familiar veneer of “Yeah they won. They usually do. But here are a few warts to keep an eye on.… One side of the brain is maintaining a dialogue in the present; the other side is problem-solving their survival in the future.
Take a peek at the Dallas Stars’s heat map for shot attempts accrued at 5v5 in the low-slot, then watch the sequence of the Brett Ritchie goal. The Lightning faithful know this problem well. If Tampa Bay wants to overload the boards and the space below the goal line, it is a zero-sum affair. In the case of the Ritchie goal, Anton Stralman fumbled a pass by Brayden Point, and when Adam Erne and Point overloaded 3-on-2 on the Stars’ forwards, the puck wiggled past Point, allowing Jason Dickinson to pass it to Ritchie in the low slot for the Stars’s third goal.
Even with those three skaters concentrated on the puck below the goal line, the other two Lightning skaters were well below the dots around the slot. Yet Cory Conacher and Mikhail Sergachev failed to adequately deny Ritchie the shot attempt. In fact, they outnumbered Ritchie two-to-one, so this is layered overloading that failed! But the positioning of Conacher and Sergachev is worth harping on for a few different reasons, especially projecting forward.
Opponents know that if their F1 and F2 can escape the clutches of the swarming Lightning skaters, they will have open teammates because of the Lightning’s overload. The math guarantees that. And if the low-slot is sealed off in the future, that leaves the entire top half of the ice open for opponents’ defensemen to seize on. If you are an offensively gifted defenseman and possible future postseason opponent, like Morgan Rielly or Kris Letang, this is a prime opportunity. The light will never be greener to attack.
In last night’s game, the Stars collected a plethora of good looks because the Lightning’s skaters above the goal line kept closer to the point. Because the middle or the top half of the offensive zone will be left open, the Lightning leave themselves vulnerable by making their defensive coverage strategy a winner-take-all affair. Maybe this is tautology, but if the Lightning outnumber their opponents on the puck, then they will be outnumbered in the area where the puck is not. That is a strategy note worth underlining.
When the Lightning acquired J.T. Miller, they traded for a player whose talent is offset by the exasperation one feels watching him. It is almost like the Law of Miller: For every good thing he does, he has to make an equally dumb, confounding play to nullify it. But a shrewd way to safeguard his inevitable failure of temperament or dereliction of duty on defense is to surround him with Point and Yanni Gourde, two players who make life way, way easier for their linemates. The Lightning did that last night.
To Miller’s credit, his two assists last night were superlative plays by him. On the Point goal, he undermined the retrieval of Stars defenseman Stephen Johns and pinned Johns against the boards. Gourde, crashing in as the F2, eliminated Dan Hamhuis and disarmed Hamhuis’s stick as he followed in support of Johns. Miller spun toward the puck, fought off Johns, and slipped the puck to Point, who dove in to score as the F3.
On his second primary assist, he scooped up the puck after a shot by Stars defenseman Esa Lindell. Miller then turned away from Lindell and Nick Shore, who both applied a little pressure, before identifying Steven Stamkos soaring through the middle to split the Stars’ defense. Good recognition by Miller, and nice stretch pass to attack through the neutral zone. Cooper’s instincts on this are correct. Surround Miller with Point, Gourde, and Stamkos, and that shields the Lightning from his worst impulses.
After dropping a point in overtime against the Sabres, it was encouraging to see the Lightning grab the two points on Conacher’s tally in extra time. Even if the overtime winner came after blowing a two-goal lead. I guess, for the time being, the Lightning have to take the good with the bad.