After days of speculation surrounding Joe Thornton, the signing of Mike Cammalleri today will be a let-down.
That said, Cammalleri can bring a lot to the Los Angeles offense, especially at a fraction of Thornton's cost:
The LA Kings agreed to terms with Michael Cammalleri on a one-year contract w/ an AAV of $1 million (plus bonuses).https://t.co/GBDxfC74Jz
— #LAKings (@LAKings) July 1, 2017
Now hearing Thornton's one year deal in SJ will be closer to $6.5M than $6M.
— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) July 1, 2017
However, like Thornton, Cammalleri suffered a less-than-satisfactory 2016-17. Banking just 10 goals in 61 games resulted in New Jersey buying out the 35-year-old. How concerned should we be about this diminished production?
Last year, the winger had a 7.0 shooting %, which was the worst of his career (previous low was 9.0). Let's look harder at this figure.
At 5v5, Cammalleri's 8.16 shooting % last season was not particularly high -- from 2007-16, he scored at an overall 11.5 clip. But this slump paled in comparison to his woes on the man advantage.
At 5v4, his 2.6 shooting % was a far cry from his norm -- from 2007-16, he enjoyed a 14.8 success rate.
When a player's shooting % drops, oftentimes, the next thing to consider are his shots on goal and scoring chance rates. If he wasn't scoring, was he getting his chances at least?
In Cammalleri's case, it appears that he was. His 7.0 5v5 Shots/60 were his most in three years, while his 15.5 5v4 rate was his highest since 2007-08. And according to All About the Jersey's excellent breakdown, his scoring chances didn't look much different than 2015-16's, when he notched 14 goals in just 42 contests.
So nothing to worry about, right? Cammalleri's shooting % will surely bounce back.
It would be easier to say that if Cammalleri was 25 and not 35. Case in point, the also 35-year-old Marian Gaborik, who has also been earning his chances the last two years, but not producing at a customary clip. When you lose it, you lose it.
But at a million-plus for one year, Cammalleri is a fantastic gamble. While the winger won't have the potential impact of a Thornton and probably doesn't increase the team's chances at a Cup much, you can't argue with 25+ goals upside at that cost.
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Los Angeles also signed Christian Folin, Darcy Kuemper, Cal Petersen, and Stepan Falkovsky today.
Hockey Wilderness had a thorough recap of Folin's 2016-17. In short, the 26-year-old enjoyed an effective start to his campaign, where the physical defenseman flirted with top-four minutes and killed some penalties. But after a late November injury, he couldn't get back on track.
Bruce Boudreau had this to say about Folin at his best last year:
"He's a big body that makes simple plays but doesn't make mistakes," said Wild coach Bruce Boudreau. "He competes. That's what you're going to get out of him, and those guys are hard to play against." (NHL.com)
Besides these qualities, Folin is mobile for his 6'3" frame and moves the puck adequately. At the very least, he's a proven depth blueliner who will provide some credible competition for Paul LaDue, Kevin Gravel, and Oscar Fantenberg. It's a solid one-season flier.
Kuemper, also signed to a one-year deal, has had an up-and-down career. Once tabbed as Minnesota's number-one goalie of the future, the 27-year-old ceded his starting job to Devan Dubnyk three seasons ago.
The 6'5" netminder has NHL-level talent and between he and Jack Campbell, hopefully one will emerge as a solid backup for Jonathan Quick. However, Wild goalie coach Bob Mason noted that Kuemper's development was slowed by not playing enough recently:
Kuemper played 21 games last season and 17 games this season, which is why goalie coach Bob Mason believes Kuemper’s game has taken a turn for the worse. He often melts down in games when adversity strikes. One goal against can become two and three quickly.“He’s very light in games played, so he gets very little traction,… Mason said. “There are tough moments in games where he hasn’t gotten the minutes to get through a lot of those. Being a goaltender, there are tight minutes where a span of minutes can be critical. The more you go through them, the more you get used to them. (Star Tribune)
This is worrisome, as the role of Quick's back-up isn't a development position. I also wonder if LA will rue -- like last year -- not investing in a more proven second keeper a la Ryan Miller or Ondrej Pavelec, just in the case Quick gets hurt again.
Petersen is a much-needed addition to LA's pipeline. The 22-year-old NCAA free agent and recently-drafted Matt Villalta will provide an infusion of goaltending youth to a system which sorely needs it. I'll write more about the pair of prospects in the coming days.
Falkovsky, inked to a three-year entry-level contract, should compete for a job in Ontario. Jon Rosen pulled some good info about the 6'7" blueliner who scored 21 goals in the ECHL last year:
OHL source on Falkovsky: "Big, rangy D that skates well. Made decent decisions. Not overly physical." 67s alum, which makes @JimFox19 happy!
— Jon Rosen (@lakingsinsider) July 1, 2017
He has an NHL one-timer and great offensive ability. Needs a little (and by little I mean a lot) of work on his celebrations... https://t.co/nXAMh2lfLF
— Chris Treft (@Chris_Treft) July 1, 2017
The 20-year-old needs some work defensively, but blessed with great size and decent mobility, he looks like a worthwhile project.
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Stats as of 6/28/17, courtesy of Behind the Net, Corsica, Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Puckalytics, and Sporting Charts. ++++I AM CURRENTLY LOOKING FOR ADVERTISERS! If you, or anyone you know would be interested in placing an ad here at HockeyBuzz, then send me a PM!++++