After 17 games the Jets are sitting in a place they have rarely seen, near the top. For some, yours truly included, the rocky start is still not forgotten and the ability to trust this team is still not there. The simple truth for so many Jets fans is that they need to see the Jets beat better teams before they can psychologically ‘get there’ and ‘trust’.
The last two wins have been against a team with only to wins. Before that they lost to the surprising Vegas expansion team but beat a middle of the pack Dallas team. The fact remains there’s an argument the Jets have not proved they are able to beat the better teams in the league and that might be because they have not played many or any yet?
In come the Philadelphia Flyers tonight.
If you have not seen this article (a bit of a hit job IMHO) it’s worth a read:
With #NHLJets on tap, #Flyers have proven better off without Steve Mason https://t.co/QKMX1yLO7T
— Scott Billeck (@ScottBilleck) November 16, 2017
The Flyers, depending on who you read/speak to are either underperforming or exactly what they should be, a middling team trying to capitalize on some young defenders, new top draft pick, and some very good veteran players. In some ways they are like the Jets, but with strengths and weaknesses in different areas. Those similarities do not mean the teams are equal though but they may experience similar issues in regards to growing pains.
From a numbers stand point the Jets still have concerns that won’t go away- they don’t generate enough action towards the opposition net. It’s an issue that predictively will lead to trouble if the Jets can’t sort it out in the long term.
Even if you exclude the first two games of the year the Jets still rank in the bottom for ‘shots for’ share at 5 vs 5 and the same with ‘Corsi for’. Even the month of November is used and the Jets with their six games played still rank low.
This team is finding success through goaltending and and shooting success which has the leading the league in PDO- that combined number of shooting percentage and save percentage.
As noted elsewhere the PK unit is still a hot mess. It still defies logic, and now for many fans emotional pleas, as to how it can be so passive. It’s where a detailed systems analysis would be interesting to see but from multiple points of view to see if the same problem is being seen. Regardless though, the PK is the 19th best and being supported by a great road effort at 86% while at home it runs at 69%. The Jets do not take nearly the same amount of penalties as they used to and are only the 14th most penalized team. That alone, may have some affect on the modest PK improvement from previous years.
What is being missed by many is the Jets PP unit having come out of the doldrums after years of pain. For the first three full years of Maurice’s tenure the Jets have run 17% PP unit, 26th overall for that time period. This year to date they are running almost 6% better at 22.8% which puts that at 8th in the league thus far with only the 24th most opportunities on the PP.
The Flyers by comparison come in at 18th in the league for PP 18% and 18th for the PK at 80%, right ahead of the Jets.
Game Notes
Nolan Patrick was questionable for the game today as the former Brandon Wheat King and Winnipeg native returns home for the first time this season, but that has changed as he will play after missing 9 games with injury.
Mathieu Perreault had expressed that he would like to play tonight and at the AM skate he was taking fourth line rushes with Hendricks and Armia while the line of Copp Lowry and Tanev remained intact as the third line. Make what you will of that.
Hellebuyck is expected to start in net as opposed to Steve Mason seeing his old team.
Matthias is sitting as Perreault enters the line up.
Winnipeg has the 4th best goal differential in the league at +9
Philadelphia has the 16th at +2
Winnipeg is 6-1-3 in last ten games
Philadelphia is 3-5-2
Is this game a test? Only in one sense in that its a game the Jets should win, just like the Montreal game was. The test is only in the sense that they test themselves to be the better team from the start of the game and not let the play come to them.