It’s time to take the Jets seriously
There is joy in Winnipeg, or Joyville as former Jets head coach Claude Noel would say. The Jets as of this writing are second in the NHL, two points behind the Lightning and tied with St. Louis in points but with a game in hand. Only the Blue Jackets have a better record in their last ten games (8-2 vs 7-3-1).
Even the mighty Golden Knights could not tame the Jets at home as for the second game in a row at home the Jets unleashed 7 goals in a 7-4 win. They are the 4th highest scoring team in the NHL with 89 goals and are 7th best for goal allowed.
The most controversial issue that surrounds the Jets as it pertains to believers vs the skeptics is line construction and usage. While success has come to the Jets some (at times yours truly as well) still believe there are better constructs to the team.
When looking at deeper stats the Jets first line of Ehlers, Scheifele and Wheeler is not even near the top in the NHL of line combos when looking at Corsi For % and Expected Goals for %. What is surprising is who is near the top?
Lowry, Copp and Tanev have somehow, to most people’s surprise, jumped into the top ten in the NHL for line combos at 5v5 for CF% for all combos that have played 100 minutes or more together. Who saw this coming. When looking at expected goals for- they move even higher to 3rd in the NHL under the same conditions.
The powerhouse trio of Connor, Scheifele and Wheeler is much further down the list but if you change the parameters a bit so do the results. Using the same criteria but with 200 minutes played things look like this with Corsi For %
15th- Ehlers, Little Laine 17th- Connor, Scheifele, Wheeler
xGF% 14th Ehlers, Little, Laine 16th Connor, Scheifele, Wheeler
What happens when you drop the ice time lower is also interesting. At a minute 50 minutes played the trio of Perreault, Hendricks and Armia show up as the 8th best line by CF% and 14th by xGF%. For the more interesting observers this line will be the one to watch because it was never formed this way by design. It was the injury to Mathieu Perreault that forced combinations to change, the unexpected benefit was the rise of Kyle Connor who came up from the Manitoba Moose while Perreault was injured.
Once healthy Perreault was put on the fourth line! The horror for many and the questions for the very questionable Paul Maurice began/continued but the results kept coming. The Jets kept winning and earning points.
What Jets fans are starting to discover is fairly simple but almost unexpected, there is finally depth in the organization and more importantly the depth is paying off. Absence of depth along with adequate goaltending has long been what many around and afar of the Jets have said has hurt the team.
If the season for the Jets is divided in half for 13 and 13 games this is what the splits look like
(all stats 5v5)
First 13
Shooting % 9.77 Save % 92.01 PDO 101.79 CF% 45.01 xGF% 47.81
Second 13
Shooting% 8.36 Save % 93.86 PDO 102.22 CF% 51.2 xGF% 51.3%
The Jets are improving and while the underlying numbers have suggested that the Jets were due to regress or worse it simply hasn’t happened. They are getting better and that should be a comforting factor for those who are still clinging to some skeptical thoughts. Frankly, it’s okay to believe in the team even if you don’t want to be the preacher in the pulpit.
With all this being said even the captain Blake Wheeler knows that this team can be better and he said as much after the game on Friday even as he admitted that winning like this is uncommon territory for the team.
The ‘why is this happening now’ can come from many possible reasons but the combination of development, depth, goaltending, and chemistry is probably what has allowed the Jets to take flight to new heights. How any particular person weights those elements is up to them as they likely do not all contribute in some equal measurement.
The theory I believe works like this. After the first two game the goaltending when from god awful to good to great and it stayed great for some time. After the first two games the Jets only had one other game with sub .900 goaltending in their next 11 games. They did not break between the pipes and that bought the team time. There’s no denying while individual efforts looked great a cohesive effort and level of play was not always there but the play in net was. Having that level of goaltending bought the Jets some time and it allowed for the players to develop into a better group.
Add in the development with players such as Connor and Poolman stepping into the line up and playing well there have been few holes to play against. Their additions simply increases the depth of the team and allows for a player like Perreault to play on the fourth line and special teams. Perreault has long been a player that is the straw that stirs the drink. He creates plays, drives possession and simply makes his line mates better players and both Armia and Hendricks are the biggest benefactors. The result is that ‘it’s’ finally coming together for the Jets and they are a dangerous team and one that can likely get better.
Yes it’s time to take the Winnipeg Jets seriously. Not only should their fans take them seriously but also know they can be better and likely will if they keep their trends as they are progressing. That’s the task at hand for the coaches and players as the team looks forward through December and into January where they play a game almost every other night. Just like the route that took them to this point, patience and practice will be the process. Speaking of the process is anyone really doubting it any more?