The Pittsburgh Penguins have a wonderful opportunity this evening. They have a chance to take a 3-0 series lead and bury the Washington Capitals in self-doubt and panic. Washington is in a do or die situation. Yes they have been the better team and yes over time the results would show that. Time is not in their favor after dropping the first two games of the series. Going down 3-0 is pretty much a guaranteed death sentence. Only four times in the history of the league has a team come back from down 0-3.
Injuries could have played a big role in Game 3. Patric Hornqvist, Tom Kuhnhackl, and Ron Hainsey all left Game 2 due to injury. Today Kuhnhackl and Hainsey participated in the morning skate. Missing were Patric Hornqvist, Carl Hagelin, and Brian Dumoulin. Mike Sullivan has indicated that all three will be a game-time decision. I fully expect Brian Dumoulin and Carl Hagelin to play. It is very encouraging that Hornqvist has been labeled a game-time decision given the fact he left Game 2 and did not return. Pittsburgh could have absorbed the injuries to Kuhnhackl and Hainsey, but missing Hornqvist is something they don't have a replacement for.
Matt Murray is back skating albeit without any gear on. It's a minor step in his recovery. It is still very unlikely he will return for round 2 even in a backup role.
League average SV% in the playoffs this year is 10 points higher than during the regular season (.923 vs .913).
— Draglikepull (@draglikepull) May 1, 2017
Marc-Andre Fleury is at .936 so far while Braden Holtby is a very disappointing .906.
Here is a look at how Kessel is finding space in the offensive zone, the Penguins bad zone exits, and how the team is packing it in in front of Fleury
Pens/Caps Video Dump: Kessel, Convergence, and Turnovers https://t.co/z8VGf5e9SK pic.twitter.com/xJhPzTyJYy
— The Pensblog (@Pensblog) May 1, 2017
The Kessel walk is something I touched on earlier in the year. Given Phil's ability to score from the top of the circle the opposition has no choice but to step up on him which creates other passing lanes. Or they don't get in his lane and he snipes. If the Penguins get a 5 on 3 it would be unacceptable if the Kessel walk wasn't the primary look on their setup. You can't defend it.
The zone exit issue probably won't be resolved this season. It has been a problem for a while and they don't have the proper personnel on the back end to make a significant change in this department.
Defensively the Penguins are utilizing the 'protect the net' strategy from EA Sports. This approach does not eliminate scoring chances, but it does try to limit high-danger chances. I can't fault the strategy because Marc-Andre Fleury's weakness is his high-danger save percentage, but is it working?
Against Columbus the Penguins had a 51-50 advantage in high danger shot attempts. Against Washington the Penguins are losing that battle 19-11.
@JapersRink Series to date. pic.twitter.com/E24A9LIluS
— Natural Stat Trick (@NatStatTrick) May 1, 2017
The reason it is "working" is what Jesse alluded to. The Penguins have been able clog the slot up keeping Washington from getting super clean looks and the Penguins forwards are fast enough to get up the ice despite being down low in the defensive zone. Also, luck has been on Pittsburgh's side. This strategy puts you at the mercy of puck bounces and in this sport good luck predicting how those go. The more rubber at the net the greater chance of a lucky bounce.
It looks as though Washington will be going with the same lineup once again
Looks like no changes for Caps. D pairs and lines are same. Alzner in the extra D pair with Corney again. Carey remains at RW on 4th line
— Tom Gulitti (@TomGulittiNHL) May 1, 2017
Have the Penguins solved Holtby?
Friedman: Exec from another team thinks #Pens "figured out either a tell or a weakness" on Holtby's left side. #Caps https://t.co/S6y4pvjY23
— Chris Nichols (@NicholsOnHockey) May 1, 2017
Sources tell me that if you shoot above the glove, but below the crossbar...
Is this going to be a series or not? We should know around 10PM this evening.
Thanks for reading!