In the six games since Ondrej Palat returned from injury he has registered one point, and that was a power-play goal that he tapped in around the crease against New Jersey. Currently, Palat is playing on the third line with Alex Killorn and Anthony Cirelli. With the postseason around the bend, is it worth trying to work Palat into the top six?
Palat only scored more than twenty goals in a season once, and that was in his sophomore year, 2013-14. But what he adds when he is at his best is playmaking and puck-handling, The Lightning may want to deploy a “checking… or shutdown line during the playoffs against a formidable opposing scoring line. Palat, who has finished 11th and 9th in voting for the Selke Trophy Award, would excel in that role. What probably makes the most sense is if the Lightning break up the Brayden Point line and try to spread the talent out over three lines. Teams that win in the playoffs have scoring depth, and it might be worth exploring in this final push whether the Lightning can have a potent third line. But Palat, Cirelli, and Killorn just do not move the needle.
The best line combination for the Lightning this season in terms of Corsi Plus-Minus is Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and the recently departed Vladislav Namestikov. I really enjoyed Namestikov’s contribution because he could transport the puck well. But since J.T. Miller has joined Kucherov and Steven Stamkos, the chemistry has been instantaneous. With less than 100 even-strength minutes together, the newfangled Kucherov-Stamkos-Miller line has a +36 Corsi and their dynamic has translated to the power play as well. However, even though their 5v5 Plus-Minus is shockingly in the red, Cooper seems highly reluctant to upset the habitat of Miller. At the moment, the former Rangers forward is the Lightning’s most consistent scorer.
Intriguingly, third on the list in Corsi Plus-Minus are Point, Palat, and Johnson. They are a +49 at controlling shot attempts and lead all Lightning lines in 5v5 Goals Plus-Minus with a +11 and that is over the span of 217 minutes together. That is a very healthy sample size of sterling play. But wait, also of note, in 278 minutes, a Yanni Gourde, Palat, and Point combination has a +6 Goals Plus-Minus at 5v5, and +19 Corsi Plus-Minus. It is worth remembering how successful the Lightning were with Palat, Point, and Player X. The Lightning darted out to a big lead on the rest of the East with that combination fueling part of the success.
No doubt, it is hard to see Johnson or Gourde being super eager to leave the comfort of playing with Point on the second line to help steward a third line. Surely, their new line would generate fewer opportunities, and their responsibilities would amplify. So, like most hypotheticals, this one is made in a vacuum and does not account for the very real human dimension that affects how much change can be executed.
Still, with the stakes so high, it is tantalizing to imagine Johnson or Gourde redistributing the wealth. Both are speedy puck-handlers and gifted creators who would give Killorn and Anthony Cirelli more attempts to convert on the rush and forecheck.
Against the Rangers, a game where space was so obtainable, Cedric Paquette looked like a 50-goal scorer; there was the rush that Victor Hedman led; and it was Cirelli who dropped a pass into Killorn’s lap, which Killorn proceeded to slap into the net on the rebound to give the Lightning a 2-1 lead. Johnson or Gourde are more than capable of filling in as the lead puck-handler, which is the role that Hedman assumed, and once the puck enters the offensive zone, Killorn and Cirelli are highly capable of making positive plays around the net and along the boards. They just need a catalyst, and Palat is not it.
In that same vein, having a dynamic playmaker who can push the defense back for the second wave, is central to why the Lightning’s defense proved so prolific in their scoring this season. Moving Johnson or Gourde to the third line would not only create offense for the incumbent forwards, it would expand the range of opportunity to all four skaters aside from the puck-carrier.
The Gourde-Point-Johnson line has shown flashes, but they have not been dominant. Tinkering with the forward lines has little risk of muzzling scoring, especially when the Lightning’s offense has been so inconsistent at even strength in the last ten games. Regardless of whether the Lightning draw Toronto or a Metropolitan Division foe, balanced scoring will be paramount come playoff time. There is reason to believe that rejiggering the forward lines would help the Lightning achieve a state closer to equilibrium.