There are some rumblings about the Penguins looking into solidifying their goaltending. I have some thoughts on it. First let’s look at what is being said
WHO NEEDS A GOALIE? The #NHL goaltending market is heating up and @frank_seravalli lists five names potentially on the move - ranked from most expensive to least expensive in acquisition cost.
— TSN Hockey (@TSNHockey) November 28, 2018
More: https://t.co/NnLjPGQx8Q #TSNHockey #TradeCentre pic.twitter.com/N3tyq9TGfu
The Blues are reportedly sniffing around Detroit’s Jimmy Howard, but they may not be alone. The Pittsburgh Penguins are very much in ‘win now’ mode, are believed to have interest, and, unlike the Blues, the Pens have a first-round pick to dangle.
OK, so let’s try and figure out if this is actually a good idea.
Jimmy Howard is probably a better goalie than he has been given credit for. His 5v5 save percentage has been consistently league average or above during his career.
His high danger save percentage has seen some dips in quality over the years. The Penguins are no stranger to this
Howard is clearly having one of his better seasons in 2018-19. The appealing part of Howard’s play this year has been his high-danger save percentage. The perception is the Penguins give up a ton of high danger chances. They are actually pretty average in that regard being 14th in the league at 215. The Red Wings give up even more at 237 for a 23rd overall ranking. So in theory the workload would actually get easier for Howard in Pittsburgh.
So how does Howard compare to Pittsburgh’s other goalies this year?
He compares favorably.
The questions that need answered for the Penguins:
Do they believe Casey DeSmith is as good as his stats? DeSmith’s stats are totally acceptable and a team like the Penguins could do just fine if the numbers were to stay where they are. The problem with DeSmith is that we don’t really have a large sample of evidence. Even Matt Murray doesn’t really have a ton of NHL evidence.
Do the Penguins think Matt Murray can be better?
Matt Murray has two pretty equal sample sizes going on. The first is him being one of the best goalies in the league. The second has him below replacement level. The second one is the more recent one. Murray is dealing with an unknown injury at this point in time and hasn’t shown many signs of getting his game together this year.
This isn’t a great situation for an ultimate win now team to be in. The supposed starter is hurt and has played bad for a season and a half while the backup is performing well, but you don’t know if that is the real talent level or not.
When I first saw the Jimmy Howard rumor I quickly dismissed it as dumb. After looking at his career path and how he’s been playing this year on a bad Red Wings team it made me rethink my original dismissal.
The first round asking price makes more sense than it appears on the surface. The Penguins don’t have any cap space. Like it or lump it Jack Johnson’s 3.25M plays a role in every possible trade because of the cap situation.
Detroit would likely have to retain salary because Howard, who is a pending UFA, has a 5.29M cap hit.. You have to make it worth Detroit’s while to move a goalie playing really well at a reduced salary. Pittsburgh’s first round pick is going to be traded it is just a matter of what they spend it on.
I don’t love the idea spending assets on goaltending, but if the team doesn’t think Matt Murray or Casey DeSmith is going to give them league average you can’t waste a year of your win now window being sank by goaltending.
I would keep this idea on the back burner and keep playing Casey DeSmith like a number one goaltender to see if he can continue to be league average or better. If he falls short the Howard idea might not be as bad as my initial reaction to it.
Thanks for reading!