This will be a different kind of recap. The kind that only happens when the game is equal parts blowout yet simple to explain. Last night the Buffalo Sabres fell to the Colorado Avalanche 6-1 and somehow it didn’t really feel as if it was that sort of one-sided tilt. Certainly, by the time the Avalanche went up 4-1 the Sabres essentially stopped skating, but Colorado wasn’t really firing on all cylinders.
The expected goals time line says it all. Even if the model isn’t capturing every subtle detail of each goal, when the gap between expected and actual goals against is this high, it’s usually a goaltending issue.
Carter Hutton has had somewhat of a nightmare tenure on the Sabres. After just one season into a three-year contract, Hutton lost the starting job to Linus Ullmark, the goalies most figured would be the backup all throughout Hutton’s tenure with the team. It’s a demanding job being the starter on a team trying to transition from rebuild to playoff hopeful, but so far Hutton hasn’t been up to the task. The Sabres have done a great job limiting the quality of chances against when Hutton is in goal. He’s seen the 3rd lowest expected goals against of any goalie with at least 950 minutes played (3/46 total). Despite this, goals like the ones from last night’s game have become commonplace for the Sabres when Hutton starts. Here’s a few examples:
I’ll never pretend to be a goaltending expert and this was a nice shot to watch in real time from Nazem Kadri, but Hutton is already down when Kadri takes this shot. All the parts of the net that should be taken away from the shooter are wide open. Even If Johansson is impairing his view, this probably isn’t how Hutton should be set up facing a shot.
Even if we look past the Kadri goal, it’s really goals like this one from former Sabre Nikita Zadorov that absolutely crush your teams’ spirit. There was still a chance for the Sabres to get that early second period goal back and close the gap to one. Instead, Hutton lets a defenseman whose 120 shot attempts ranks 207/239 skaters with 700 mins (5v5) beat him five-hole with a soft backhand.
There’s been a lot of talk about Sabres management’s inability to address needs at the forward position, but a season of good to borderline great defensive results has gone to waste due to some poor goaltending from the half of the tandem that Jason Botterill acquired.
On a positive note, after being beaten by a dagger of a wrist shot from Mikko Rantanen, Jonas Johansson bounced back and had a solid NHL debut given the less than ideal situation. The prevailing assumption is that the long-term starting job is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s but Johansson has a chance to throw his hat in the ring and make some noise. He’s put up some impressive numbers with the Rochester Americans in the AHL and made some good saves last night. Hutton was seen praising the young goalie’s efforts and it generally pains me to say this about someone who most will say is an outstanding guy, but the Sabres are looking at nine straight years outside the playoffs. Major changes need to be made and he should be one of the current roster players on the chopping block.
The forwards don’t escape criticism here either. The Sabres have generated the lowest expected goals for in the entire league (yes even lower than Thursday’s opponent, the Detroit Red Wings) and last night was yet another example of how much they struggle to generate chances.
Marcus Johansson has posted and individual expected goals for of 3.32 in just over 632 minutes of action at 5v5. This not only ranks him 8th worst among forwards with 400> minutes but for context, former Sabre Tyler Ennis has nearly three times the IXG Johansson does playing for the rebuilding Ottawa Senators.
The “LOG… line also makes an appearance in the bottom 100 of this list. We know they’re primary responsibility is to be the shutdown line and they have done a great job doing that. However, this is a line that is costing them 9.15 million dollars on the cap, the majority of it being Kyle Okposo’s contract. I’ve mentioned before that Okposo’s turn around to become a defensive forward has been impressive but unfortunately, it’s simply not enough to warrant carry that cap hit into the next season. This coming off season the Sabres will need as much cap flexibility as possible to re-tool so all possibilities to move the contract must be explored, even if it costs some assets.
Thanks for reading!