Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Nashville Predators:
1. 3M vs NSH1 3M was reunited for Calgary’s clash against Boston and it’s hard to say it wasn’t the right decision. 3M beat Boston’s top line, which I think is the best in the league, on the shot clock and the scoreboard. They were also dangerous while killing penalties.
Tonight they’ll face another tough task trying to slow down the Filip Forsberg - Ryan Johansen - Viktor Arvidsson line. While not quite as prestigious as BOS1, they are still very good. In ~585 minutes together since the beginning of 2017-18, they have controlled 55.9% of the shot attempts and out-scored opponents 38-19. Those are elite numbers.
The problem for Nashville is scoring can be an issue outside of those guys. Forwards expected to skate on lines two through four have combined for just one 5v5 goal in six games thus far. If 3M can limit NSH1, the Flames will have a very good chance of picking up another win.
2. Special teams They are always important. Tonight, perhaps even more so. We’re still dealing with small sample sizes but the Flames, who have been great at drawing penalties in the past, rank 2nd averaging 5.49 drawn calls/60. The Predators are not far behind sitting 5th with 5.0 drawn calls/60.
Both teams play fast, aggressive hockey and that (clearly) forces opponents into a lot of penalties. If that’s the case again, special teams will play a huge role in deciding the outcome.
3. Better 5v5 play from the top line Power play production has really masked the fact the Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm line hasn’t been all that good. At 5v5, they have controlled 43.3% of the shot attempts 42.3% of the chances and been out-scored 6-4. Vancouver aside, they’ve faced some really good teams/tough lines. It could also take some time to fully gel with Lindholm considering he plays nothing like the guy he is replacing (Micheal Ferland). In saying that, you’d expect more from a line worth ~$18 million annually. They need to be better.
4. An emerging duo Sam Bennett and James Neal have worked surprisingly well since being put together. In ~32 minutes, they’ve controlled almost 60% of the shot attempts while helping the team create 21 chances(!) and out-score opponents 3-1. I think their success could continue tonight against a Nashville team that has some holes in the bottom-6.
5. Mike Smith The Predators peppered Smith with 43 shots and 14 high-danger chances last time these teams met. While I’d expect a better defensive performance from Calgary tonight, the Predators have not played since Monday and are no doubt chomping at the bit to get back out there. I’d expect them to come out with a lot of juice and test Smith early. He’ll need to be ready.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary (via @Fan960Steinberg)
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - James Neal Garnet Hathaway - Derek Ryan - Austin Czarnik
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Rasmus Andersson Juuso Valimaki - Michael Stone
Mike Smith
Nashville (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Filip Forsberg - Ryan Johansen - Viktor Arvidsson Kevin Fiala - Kyle Turris - Craig Smith Calle Jarnkrok - Nick Bonino - Ryan Hartman Zac Rinaldo - Colton Sissons - Miikka Salomaki
Roman Josi - Ryan Ellis Mattias Ekholm - P.K. Subban Dan Hamhuis - Yannick Weber
Pekka Rinne
Puck drop is just after 9:00 eastern and can be seen on SN360 and FS-TN.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey. Recent posts: Strong showings from Frolik, Smith lead Flames past Bruins