Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Buffalo Sabres:
1. 3M vs BUF1 Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund, and Michael Frolik have played suffocating defensive hockey this season. They've always been a spectacular two-way line but they're reaching a whole new level. At 5v5, they're giving up just 41.6 attempts, 20.6 chances, and 1.5 goals per 60 minutes of play. Those are shockingly good numbers.
With Buffalo severely lacking scoring threats outside of the top line, you can bet Backlund and co. will be stuck to them like glue. It won't be easy, of course, but if they can slow down the Jack Eichel line, the Flames will have a fantastic chance of picking up their eighth win in nine games.
2. An exploitable duo Casey Mittelstadt and Tage Thompson are a pair of kids known more for their play with the puck than without it. As such, it should surprise nobody that the Sabres are a train wreck in their own end with this duo on the ice. At 5v5, the Sabres allow 64.45 shot attempts and 36.6 scoring chances per 60. They are an absolute disaster in their own zone. Bill Peters should get the top line out against them every chance he gets. I don't think Johnny Gaudreau and co. would have much trouble exposing them.
3. Team discipline Buffalo has one line that can consistently do damage at 5v5. Playing primarily against 3M, they might not be able to – at least not as much. As a team, I think they're going to have a very difficult time creating offense at full-strength. That's why it is important for the Flames to stay disciplined tonight. Don't give them easy opportunities to create offense.
4. James Neal As lifeless as he looks a lot of the time, he is still getting chances. Johnny Gaudreau is the only Flames player whose tallied more over the last 10 games. At some point, they're going to find the back of the net. They have to. Perhaps the tide will finally change against a shallow, struggling Sabres team that's given up 16 goals over the last three games. One can only hope.
5. A struggling 3rd pairing Oliver Kylington and Rasmus Andersson have not played well of late. Over the last 10 games, the Flames are controlling ~42% of the scoring chances with them on the ice. They haven't gotten it done offensively, either, combined for two secondary assists and 15 shots at 5v5 during that stretch. Right now they're really not giving Brad Treliving any reason to hesitate about pursuing a veteran defender for the bottom pairing.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - James Neal Andrew Mangiapane - Derek Ryan - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic Oliver Kylington - Rasmus Andersson
David Rittich
Buffalo (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Jeff Skinner - Jack Eichel - Sam Reinhart Conor Sheary - Casey Mittelstadt - Tage Thompson Vladimir Sobotka - Evan Rodrigues - Jason Pominville Zemgus Girgensons - Johan Larsson - Kyle Okposo
Rasmus Dahlin - Zach Bogosian Jake McCabe - Rasmus Ristolainen Marco Scandella - Nathan Beaulieu
Carter Hutton
Puck drop is just after 9:30 eastern and can be seen on SN360, SN1 and MSG-B.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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