Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Dallas Stars:
1. A stacked top line The Jamie Benn - Tyler Seguin - Alexander Radulov line has played spectacularly well this season. Through 150 5v5 minutes, they have a +6 goal differential and are controlling better than 55% of the scoring chances. Even though Radulov has missed double-digit games, this trio ranks 1st, 2nd, and 3rd on the Stars in both points and scoring chances at 5v5. Jason Spezza's best days are long behind him, Valeri Nichushkin hasn't scored a 5v5 goal this season, and there isn't much of note in the bottom-9 beyond those two. All of the eggs are in one basket. If Calgary can slow down Dallas' top line – easier said than done, I know – they'll have a great chance of walking away with another victory.
2. A pace-down game The Flames play fast. They're in the top half of the league in total attempts/60, total chances/60, and they look very quick by the eye. The Stars are quite the opposite. At 5v5, there is an average of 108.35 total attempts/60. That ranks 31st. They're a little higher in chances but still sit inside the bottom third. Given they really only have one reliable scoring line – and are banged up on defense – it's not overly surprising they make it a priority to slow things down. Don't expect to see run-and-gun hockey in this one. If we do, it will almost certainly favor the Flames.
3. Something's gotta give Earlier in the year James Neal was playing fairly well and simply not getting results. That's not the case right now. He has not registered a 5v5 point over his last 10 games. He's not generating many quality opportunities either. No forward who dressed in all 10 has recorded fewer high-danger looks. During that span, Neal also ranks 9th among forwards in Corsi For% and the Flames are controlling just 47% of the chances. He's really in a rut and needs to get out of it sooner than later. Perhaps a date with a banged up, shallow Dallas team is just what the doctor ordered.
4. A tough spot for the power play The Flames have scored six power play goals over the last six games and converted at least once in nine of the last 11 they've had a man advantage opportunity. I'm not sure I'd expect them to continue running hot tonight. Only eight teams take fewer penalties/60 than the Stars. They rank 5th in goals against/60 and 10th in expected goals against/60 so they are quite good at limiting the damage when they do take penalties.
5. A longer leash Oliver Kylington looked poised with the puck and, with him out there, the Flames gave up just one high-danger look (while generating four) in 13:49 of ice. With news Juuso Valimaki will be out of the lineup for a while, and a solid outing under Kylington's belt, I'm curious to see if Bill Peters and the coaching staff will give him a little more responsibility moving forward.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Sam Bennett Austin Czarnik - Derek Ryan - James Neal Dillon Dube - Mark Jankowski - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic Oliver Kylington - Rasmus Andersson
David Rittich/Mike Smith
Dallas (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Jamie Benn - Tyler Seguin - Alexander Radulov Roope Hintz - Jason Spezza - Devin Shore Valeri Nichushkin - Radek Faksa - Tyler Pitlick Mattias Janmark - Jason Dickinson - Blake Comeau
Esa Lindell - Miro Heiskanen Gavin Bayreuther - Roman Polak Joel Hanley - Taylor Fedun
Anton Khudobin
Puck drop is just after 9:00 eastern and can be seen on SN1 and FS-SW.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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