Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Washington Capitals:
1. Mike Smith Smith has posted a .878 save percentage and stopped -17.58 goals above average in 20 appearances dating back to February 1st of last season. Among 62(!) goaltenders to log at least 400 minutes in that span, Smith ranks last in both categories. Has the defense been spotty in front of him at times? Absolutely. In saying that, he is paid a lot of money to stop pucks and he is doing a horrendous job at it. As a 36-year-old with a somewhat spotty track record, it's fair to wonder if he'll ever be the goaltender the Flames hoped he'd be. If he continues down this path, Brad Treliving is really going to have to consider outside options.
2. Top line shakeup For whatever reason, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Elias Lindholm were a disaster in their time together. They posted a 45.95 Corsi For% as a line, allowed nine goals in just over 90 minutes(!!), and gave up chances at a much higher clip than they generated them.
I'm not sure Sam Bennett is the long-term solution but I have no problem with giving him an opportunity. He ranks 3rd on the team in 5v5 chances/60 and is a hard worker who will hunt down loose pucks and get them to the skill guys (like Micheal Ferland with less brute). They have worked well in the past, albeit over a small sample, controlling 59% of the attempts and ~55% of the chances in 76 minutes since the beginning of 2016-17.
3. Keep it 5v5 The Capitals are not a great 5v5 team. Through nine games they own a 48.83 Corsi For%, 47.02 Expected Goals For%, and have a minus-2 goal differential. They do a lot of their damage on the power play (no team has more PPGs) and that has been the case for years. If the Flames stay disciplined and keep things at full-strength, they'll have a pretty good shot at a bounce-back victory. We'll see if they can do it.
4. MMA reunited After a short hiatus, Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund, and Austin Czarnik are back together again. They have been absolutely dominant in the early going out-chancing opponents 32-13 at 5v5. They've yet to have their breakout game and I think this could be it. They'll likely see a good dose of the Alex Ovechkin - Evgeny Kuznetsov duo, which gives up a lot of shots and chances.
5. Elias Lindholm at center He's a very talented playmaker and he'll get more touches/opportunity to create at center than he would on the wing, especially without Johnny Gaudreau opposite side. I think that could benefit him. I also think the speed (Dillon Dube) and scoring prowess (James Neal) on the wings will compliment Lindholm nicely. They could do some damage against a relatively shallow Capitals bottom-6.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Sam Bennett Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Austin Czarnik Dillon Dube - Elias Lindholm - James Neal Garnet Hathaway - Mark Jankowski - Derek Ryan
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Washington (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Alex Ovechkin - Evgeny Kuznetsov - Jakub Vrana Andre Burakovsky - Nicklas Backstrom - T.J. Oshie Chandler Stephenson - Lars Eller - Brett Connolly Devante Smith-Pelly - Nic Dowd - Dmitrij Jaskin
Michal Kempny - John Carlson Dmitri Orlov - Matt Niskanen Brooks Orpik - Madison Bowey
Braden Holtby
Puck drop is just after 4:00 eastern and can be seen on Sportsnet Everything and NBCSWA.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.