Lottery luck was not on the Flyers' side in Toronto on Tuesday. The team will pick 11th in the first round of the 2019 NHL Draft; one spot down from their default position at the conclusion of the 2018-19 season.
The New Jersey Devils, who finished with 10 points fewer than the Flyers, had the third-best odds of the top pick. General manager Ray Shero's team won the first overall pick for the second time in three seasons. The New York Rangers, who had only four fewer points than the Flyers and five teams below them in the final standings, got the second overall pick. Those picks are likely to be Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko.
The biggest jump in the lottery draw was that of the Chicago Blackhawks. The Hawks finished two spots above the Flyers in the final league-wide standings but will pick third overall in the 2019 Draft; a spot that could see the team select Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin or perhaps one of the the several highly touted players from the Western Hockey League: defenseman Bowen Byram or forwards Dylan Cozens and Kirby Dach.
Entering last year's Draft, despite many prognostications that Joel Farabee would be there for the Flyers with the 14th overall pick, I really thought some team would take him within a few picks before Philly selected. He was easily projectable for his all-around game -- yet with offensive upside as well. (Thus, in the mock draft the Flyers website asked me to do, I correspondingly had Farabee off the board prior to the Flyers making their first pick, so I "selected" high-upside defenseman K'Andre Miller instead).
Fortunately for the Flyers, it worked out that Farabee was available at 14th and they got him. A year later, it's looking like a good "get" in that spot. He'll turn pro next season.
So far at least, the Flyers subsequent gamble to take Thayer Academy standout Jay O'Brien with the 18th overall pick is not looking great. However, injuries played a big part in his disappointing freshman season and lack of use at the World Junior Championships. During the WJC Showcase tourney last July/August, O'Brien looked impressive after also showing promise at Flyers Development Camp. O'Brien's sophomore season at Providence will be an important one for him.
For what it's worth (not much), since Miller was still on the board when Philly made its second pick of last year's first round, that would have been my preference with the latter first round pick. However, I like it when organizations make bold picks if they have scouts who feel strongly enough to step up on a player. The O'Brien pick could still pay off down the line but this past season showed it's not going to be an instantaneous return on investment. My mock draft pick for Philly was a far more conservative projection, opting for Isac Lundeström, who appeared in 15 NHL games with Anaheim this season, as well as a dozen AHL games and 17 back in Sweden with Luleà¥.
This year, the group of players likely to be available in the Flyers' range include another batch of USNTDP players (ala Farabee and Miller) as well as some mobile defensemen from Europe. As the Combine and the Draft approach, we will look in depth at some of the options likely to be available as well as a few sleepers (pre-draft, we profiled O'Brien last year, among others) if the organization goes a bit off the board.
Upcoming profile plans include USNTDP products Trevor Zegras, Alex Turcotte, Matthew Boldy, pint-sized but dynamic Cole Caufield, defenseman Cam York, Swedish prospects Victor Söderström, Philip Broberg and Simon Holmström, OHL scoring standout Arthur Kaliyev and Barrie Colts center Ryan Suzuki. Flyers general manager Chuck Fletcher said on Monday that there could be one or two goaltenders who go in the first round of this year's Draft but I think the Flyers will go for a position player unless they acquire additional picks or trade down.