Calgary was less than a minute away from a date with the defending Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues in Round 1.
Then something magical happened. Joe Pavelski tied the game in the dying seconds and Dallas eventually won in a shootout.
Now, the Flames draw the Dallas Stars – a team I think they have a much better chance of stacking up against.
Beyond the fact Tyler Seguin and Ben Bishop are a little nicked up, the Stars aren’t overwhelmingly scary.
Don’t get me wrong; they’re a good team. But they’re generally not a team that’s going to blow their opponent’s out of the rink. I think they are much less potent than the other Western Conference sides that played in the round-robin series.
A quick glance at the 5v5 numbers suggests, despite the gap in the standings, the Flames aren’t far very off from the Stars.
Calgary’s shot share was actually a little higher than Dallas’ during the regular season. The latter had a slight edge in terms of quality, though. That, coupled with high-end goaltending, is what earned them the bye from the play-in round.
I think the Stars will rightfully enter this series as the favorite. If Calgary’s top line can find a way to give them a little more, or Cam Talbot continues to play like he did against Winnipeg, those slight Dallas advantages could be mitigated.
Ultimately, I think this goes the distance. I like the Stars to pull through in a very close, low-scoring series. The Flames have a very real shot here, though, which is all they could have hoped for.
I'll be back tomorrow to get you set for Game 1.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com Recent posts: