Elliotte Friedman’s 30 Thoughts was absolutely loaded with information this week. He had some great quotes from Jarmo Kekalainen in thoughts 11-14, which we will get into in future posts this week. Today however I want to discuss thought number 10 as it pertains to the Blue Jackets and the third overall pick, owned by Dallas.
10. Stars GM Jim Nill went public, laying the groundwork for a potential trade of that third-overall selection. He’s looking for a defenceman who makes a difference. The Ducks can do that. Columbus and Minnesota could too. Winnipeg could if it wished to part with Jacob Trouba, but I think the Jets are going for it, and that doesn’t make sense.
The first thing here is even if Columbus has the pieces to move up would they even consider making a big move like this? I think they absolutely would if they were to get a deal they were comfortable with. The best place to find high end talent is at the top of the draft. The Jackets have lots of high end young players, but it’s never a problem having too much of a good thing.
The Jackets management group has not been afraid to go out there and make a big splashy move. We saw it with the hiring of John Tortorella, with the Seth Jones- Ryan Johansen trade and with the pick of Pierre-Luc Dubois over Jesse Puljujarvi. The draft seems like the place where they explore the biggest moves. In 2015 the Jackets had a chance to move up to pick #4, to select Noah Hanifin, and in 2016 they talked about a three-way deal where they would move down to pick #4 to select Dubois, letting Calgary move up and take Puljujarvi. Both these deals fell through but the point remains the Jackets have explored making big draft day moves, and who knows maybe third time is the charm.
The next part of this is who would the Jackets be interested in if they did move up. In thought 11 Jarmo is quoted “You’re always looking for a No. 1 centre.… He was talking more general than the draft specifically but as mentioned earlier the best place to find a player of that calibre outside of a trade is the draft. This draft is widely considered to be a weaker draft due to the lack of top top end talent like a Connor McDavid or an Auston Matthews, but there are still plenty of good talented players available some of which could become the number 1 centre Jarmo covets.
The centres that are ranked most around the third spot are Casey Mittelstadt and Gabe Vilardi. Both players have size, Mittelstadt at 6’1 and Vilardi at 6’2, and both are highly skilled who can score. Mittelstadt ripped it up playing in high school with 64 points in 25 games. The competition levels in high school are spotty and every top prospect puts up crazy numbers like that. In the USHL Mittelstadt was also very good putting up 30 points in 24 games. His 1.25 points per game rate was the highest in the league. Vilardi had a very strong season in the OHL. He put up 61 points in 49 games, good for 1.24 points per game. That ranked 20th in the OHL and third among players under the age of 18. He's strong at both ends of the ice, and that was on display at the Memorial Cup where he helped Windsor go undefeated in the tournament. Either one of these players would be great pick at #3 and could become that top flight centre.
Other names to keep an eye on for the Jackets are Michel Rasmussen, Cody Glass, and Elias Pettersson Rasmussen standing 6’5 has the size the Jackets like, but doesn’t appear to have the skill of the others. He had just 55 points in 50 games for Tri-City in the WHL. That doesn’t scream number 1 potential despite him routinely ranked in the top 10. If you want size and skill, Glass and Pettersson would be the players to target. Both are 6’2 and put up some impressive offensive totals. Glass had 94 points in 69 games in the WHL, ranking seventh in the league. Pettersson had 41 points in 43 games in the Allsvenskan which ranked ninth. Pettersson’s numbers are even more impressive when you consider that the Allsvenskan is a pro league. His 41 points rank third all time for a player under the age of 19, just behind Patrik Berglund and William Karlsson and ahead of players like Filip Forsberg, Alexander Wennberg and David Pastrnak.
The Jackets should clearly have interest in these players, so what would the cost be for pick #3? Dallas is “looking for a defencemen who makes a difference.… First off Seth Jones and Zach Werenski are difference makers but there is no chance either of them is being moved, let alone for a draft pick. They both have so much more value than the third overall pick and in my opinion more than even the first overall pick.
If a trade like this happens it would have to be for one of the Jackets other defencemen and pick 24. Does Dallas view David Savard as a difference maker? Buy into Jack Johnson’s resurgence? Believe in the potential of Ryan Murray or Gabriel Carlsson? If the answer is yes to any of these then I think the Jackets should explore moving one of these players for the third overall pick.
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