The fantasy hockey league season is right around the corner for many of us hockey fans. We like to bet that we know how to draft better than our peers and when things are going good we love to let everyone know. Fantasy hockey gives many of us the necessary excuse to obsess over pages and pages of stats while watching every minute of live action we can through various services we pay for. We buy the preview magazines, we study the annual yearbooks, and hope to win a starting draft position in the first three picks. Friendship are made, and ended, during fantasy sports season all in the name of winning money and bragging rights.
I'm sure many of you are Hockey Pool regulars and are likely looking for any edge you can get for the upcoming season. None of us join these leagues to lose and its oh so satisfying to walk away with some of your good friends money each spring.
With this in mind I will present to you the most astute standard points league picks for the Montreal Canadiens this upcoming season along with some info on a few key stats that will be relevant to more intricate league scoring formats.
1. Carey Price
This is clearly the most obvious choice from the Canadiens. Typically, your league will give goaltenders 2 points for a win, an extra point or two for a shutout, and varying points for a goal or assist. Price is coming off a 37 win season with 3 shutouts and 1 assist through 62 games. That's 81 points in points only league and good enough for 6th overall in this fantasy format behind Holtby, Talbot, Bobrovsky, Dubnyk, and Rask.
I would suggest that all of those goalies mentioned could see a bit of a regression next season. The Capitals lost depth and its core is getting older. Talbot is unlikely to start 73 games again next season. Bobrovsky is a consistently inconsistent, and injury prone, season to season. Dubnyk could come close to his previous seasons totals. Rask could put up 37 wins again, but it may difficult to produce 8 shutouts and 2 assists again. For these reasons we could see Price force his way back into the top 5 and possibly the top 3.
Aside from the injury filled 15-16 campaign Price has been cornerstone of the fantasy league world for the last 4 years. A full year of Claude Julien behind the bench and emerging young talent at forward should help the net minder produce stellar numbers again.
Stat Projection: 40 wins, 4 shutouts, 1 assist for 89 points in a standard league. Head to head leagues provide an even bigger reason to take Price early as he is likely to a SP% in the .925 range and a GAA in the 2.25 range which could help you secure most of your goalie stats each week.
2. Max Pacioretty
Depending on your league Pacioretty will count as either just another Forward or he will count against a specific position slot. The 28 year old LW will be a lock for 35 goals and 30+ assists. He has produced at a 60+ point pace for the last 6 seasons and there isn't a reason to think that will change this year.
Pacioretty may actually see a jump in his point totals with the addition of Jonathan Drouin. There are many ways the Canadiens may deploy Drouin but considering the current formation of the roster we may see Drouin jump into the left point position on the first powerplay unit or even on the RW or C position of said unit. This could produce a more effective PP unit resulting in a few more points for Pacioretty. If Danault centers Patch again, and Danault builds off his 40 point sophomore season, I would think it could result in a bump up in Pacioretty's totals as well. Could we finally see a 40 goal scorer in Montreal again?
Stat Projection: 37 goals, 35 assists in 82 games with 7 of those goals game winners. If your league counts shots then Patch is a must have as he has been consistently in the 270-300 shot range per year. He is typically on the good side of +/- as well, so keep that in mind if your league likes using all kinds of stats. His 21 power play points could go up next year as well with the addition of Drouin.
3. Jonathan Drouin
The newly added, 22 year old Drouin is a versatile forward. In Yahoo leagues he is still listed as LW and RW eligible and if he slides into a center position this season he may be a huge add in those head to head leagues that count face offs because of his ability to be deployed on either wing while still employing your standard center spots.
Drouin produced a solid 21 goals and 32 assists in 73 games and was 78th in league scoring during his 3rd NHL season (second full year). His work on the power play could make him a bit of a sleeper in certain. Last season he produced 9 goals and 17 assists on the power play, added 6 game winning goals, and 183 shots. His trajectory shows he is likely to improve and while Montreal doesn't have the firepower that Tampa Bay employs he could thrive in a role that hands him the keys to the bus, which is expected to happen this fall in Montreal.
Drouin is a French Canadian who wants to come to the Canadiens and win. He is a battler with exceptional hands and vision. If your pool has a die hard Habs fan (or two) then expect him to go relatively early, but he could be a difference maker in middle rounds.
Stat Projection: 30 goals and 33 assists in 79 games for a career year and eliminating his status in future drafts as a "Sleeper". Drouin is going to be close last seasons power play TOI average of 3:05 last season. Drouin was brought in to be an elite forward and this could be the season he lives up to expectations.
4. Alex Galchenyuk
Last season the 23 year old LW (or possibly C?) was dealt his first campaign that showed regression rather that progression in his point totals. A stellar 15-16 campaign saw Galchenyuk produce 30 goals and 26 assists in 82 games in what was his fourth straight year of progression. Well, last years injury filled campaign had Galchenyuk moving from C to LW, he struggled with consistency, and he fell out of favour with the coaching staff in the playoffs (which shouldn't have happened considering the Canadiens needed GOALS, but I digress). All of this led to a 61 game seasons where he put up 17 goals and 27 assists.
It wasn't all bad, fantasy sports wise, depending on your league. Alex bested his previous career high with 6 game winning goals and he remained relatively consistent to his previous seasons power play totals with 15 total PPP. Galchenyuk averaged 2:17 per game on the PP and that time should increase this season so he is likely to surpass last years PPP total. If his injury timing (December 4, 2016. Missed 18 games) worked out for your team then it was likely you had someone you needed off your IR list or grabbed someone available from the Free Agent list that was heating up and you jumped all over it subbing Chucky out. It just was terrible timing as Galchenyuk was hot with 22 points in 25 games.
He should be deployed at center this upcoming season, preferably with Drouin on either wing and able to jump in for a face off, if needed. In my previous articles I mentioned that Montreal should deploy an "All Out Attack" line of Drouin, Galchenyuk, and Lehkonen. Should this occur and they remain consistently together Galchenyuk could be primed to produce a new career high in points.
Stat Projection: 29 goals and 30 assists in 82 games. Galchenyuk and the Canadiens won't be looking to dwell on the failings of last season and this will push Alex back onto the path of progression. Maturity and experience will work in Chucky's favour this year, as well as playing with an emerging star in Drouin.
5. Shea Weber
The 32 year old defender started last season like he was shot out of a canon, or like he was the canon doing the shooting. Weber's first 25 games had him in Norris Trophy talks because he slammed home 8 goals and put up 10 assists. Unfortunately, the goal starved Canadiens possibly had a cumulative effect on Weber's production as the team struggled to score goals after a hot start and he finished the season with his lowest point and shot totals in 8 years with 17 goals, 42 points, and 183 shots.
Now, I'm not piling on Weber here. Weber will obviously begin slowing as the years accumulate but as Markov has shown us, age can be nothing but a number... Until around 37 anyways. Weber will be the Canadiens leader in ice time and will be out first for every power play. The addition of Drouin and the emergence of other young Habs like Lehkonen and Danault could help the Canadiens goal totals and its likely Weber will be the guy grabbing some additional secondary assists this season.
In leagues that count PPP Weber will be a highly valuable asset for his position. Weber's 22 PPP total could increase with a bit less pressure from "The Trade" and so could his even strength points if the aforementioned young Habs progress upward in their point trajectories. Claude Julien also knows how to get the most from his D men and I would think this could mean a better game plan to make use of Weber's offensive talents.
Stat Projection: 19 goals and 27 assists in 82 games. I would expect the rockets he fires from the point on the PP could produce 25 total PPP as well. Weber will be slowing down eventually, but I wouldn't bet on it being this year. The Canadiens may have lost the skill of Radulov this offseason but the addition of Drouin, a return to form for Galchenyuk, a healthy Gallagher, and the progression of players like Lehkonen and Danault should help the Canadiens put a few more goals on the scoreboard and Weber will have his part in them.
Keeper Sleepers
Some of us are deeply invested in keeper leagues and depending on the rules you may have the opportunity to draft prospects who are drafted by NHL clubs and keep them anticipating their realized potential.
The Canadiens dealt away their top prospect this summer in Memorial Cup Champion defender Mikhail Sergachev to acquire star forward Jonathan Drouin. Pickings would be slim for Habs fans outside of hoping Nikita Scherbak finally begins his NHL career in a meaningful way, but thats looking less likely after a couple disappointing AHL seasons.
That changed this last NHL Draft as they snagged draft day slider center Ryan Poehling of St. Cloud State University with the 25th overall pick. Poehling began last season in the NCAA as a 17 year old and was the youngest NCAA player in the league. This showed in his stats as he put up a unspectacular 7 goals and 6 assists in 35 games. Regarded as a solid two way center with upside who was supposed to be picked in the mid first, Poehling showed his skills at this years summer showcase event for Team USA where he produced 1 goal and 6 assists in 5 games and was highly regarded for his overall game and offensive vision. Poehling could be worth a very late keeper pick with the intentions of letting him sit in your prospect pool with the potential to achieve a top 6 forward spot with the Canadiens in 2-3 years time. You could chose to wait it out in the event no one picks him this draft, but if he shows up to college in a big way it could cost more that a last round pick to snag him next year. Just something to think about.
The other forward to jump onto the prospect scene was this drafts second round pick (58th), 18 year old center Joni Ikonen. Another summer showcase standout for Team Finland, Ikonen showed he battles and can play with skill by producing 3 goals and 2 assists in 5 games. Ikonen had fans thinking of the Canadiens former captain Saku Koivu due to nationality and compete level. I won't heap that kind of expectations on Ikonen just yet, but he was turning heads at this tournament and could be had in the last round of your keeper league as a high reward prospect.
Both of these players are likely to be around at the end of your draft and one could be plucked by the Habs Homer of your group but if not they could be worth it to you to stash them away on your prospect bench for the future. If they start hot next year its always possible to flip them to a GM who wants them now believing they are truly breaking out as a high end prospect. Or you could get a good return in a trade from said Habs Homer who passed them over and has some draft day remorse.
Deep Sleeper Keeper The 19 year old London Knight defensemen Victor Mete has improved in his 3 OHL seasons while earning a Memorial Cup Championship along the way. Last season Mete destroyed his previous seasons point totals of 8 goals and 30 assists in 68 games by putting up 15 goals and 29 assists in 50 games. Mete is probably the Habs prospect I'm interested in the most but he is still 3-4 years away from even debuting in the NHL unless he shines in AHL play. Keep Victor Mete on your keeper league radar for the next couple seasons, he could keep producing at a high rate and might be a fantastic final round pick for your 2018 draft.
I hope these write ups help you in your leagues if you are unfamiliar with the Canadiens outside of Price and Pacioretty. I know I seem to have set some lofty expectations but I don't believe they are unreasonable by any stretch, more like trying to estimate the next level based on current trajectories of said players careers.
I think the Canadiens will contend for the Division title again this season and the emerging youth on the roster is going to help push them forward. At the very least, the Canadiens appear to have two very solid scoring lines despite not having a true, #1 center to lead them. Although we may see that situation resolve itself if Galchenyuk and/or Drouin get the chance to step in and seize the opportunity. Here's hoping that's the case and we don't have to put on the same record and discuss not having a top line center.
Or trading for (and signing) John Tavares works too, whichever is fine by me.
Good luck in whatever leagues you join this fall!