The Calgary Flames are going to remodel their defense this off-season.
It was always a given with *checks notes* T.J. Brodie, Travis Hamonic, Derek Forbort, Erik Gustafsson, and Michael Stone all slated to hit free agency.
Many of those guys will not be brought back, and a few will need to be replaced (having Juuso Valimaki ready to step in helps).
As a result the Flames, who were keen on shaking things up to begin with, are going to be linked to a lot of different names.
The rumor mill is already churning with Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman mentioning Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Rasmus Ristolainen as a couple possibilities the Flames are looking at.
Friedman also reports they've considered Rasmus Ristolainen of the Buffalo Sabres before, perhaps they circle back there.
— NHL Watcher (@NHL_Watcher) September 10, 2020
The OEL tidbit is not surprising. GM Brad Treliving has a connection (we’ve seen those come to fruition before with the likes of Mike Smith), the Coyotes want to cut costs, and the Flames are looking to make meaningful changes.
A few years ago I’d have been all over OEL. Whether looking at his statistical profile, or using the good old fashioned eye test, he was very much elite.
I can’t say that of him right now. The Coyotes’ share of the expected goals, and actual goals, has been lower with OEL on the ice than without over the last couple of years. He has been worth 1.2 Goals Above Replacement during that window, according to Evolving-Hockey.com.
He’s still a useful player, and young enough (29) that there should be gas left in the tank, but he very much appears to have peaked. Even at a discount on the trade market, I don’t think he is the kind of player that should be commanding $8.25 million per season. Or anywhere close, for that matter.
If the Flames are going to bring in Ristolainen, they may as well just blow up the roster and rebuild. He is a horrific hockey player (by NHL standards, of course). Horrific.
Buffalo’s share of the shot attempts, and expected goals, has been lower with Risto on the ice in six of his seven NHL seasons. He’s poor defensively and inefficient offensively. The only reason he has put up points over the years is because he’s been spoonfed minutes on the PP alongside Jack Eichel. He does not excel, or even hold his own, in any aspect of the game.
Depending on the return, and amount of salary Calgary ships back, you could at least justify taking a chance on somebody with OEL’s track record.
I would avoid Ristolainen like the plague, though, and suggest Treliving does just that. If the Flames trade for Ristolainen, a remodel would likely turn into a rebuild.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com
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