By Tom T
Is Ryan Murray's future in C-Bus? He is an RFA so the immediate response is 'Yes'. Shouldn't we be talking about Bob or Bread being traded, not Murray?
Murray is not a scoring defenseman, but he's not asked to be. He is a second pair guy eating up 20 minutes a night. You hear little about him, which to me means he is doing his job. He is 25 years old, and will be a RFA at season's end. He will be due a payday, but how big is the question. He has stayed healthy this season and is reaching his potential.
Given all of this above why would Columbus want to trade him? Easy answer is because he has value. Teams want a young guy who can eat minutes and anchor a line. Price and return is the other answer. What will it cost to resign him? Is is south of $5M or north of $5M. If you believe it is above $5M, maybe it is time to get some equity out of this player. If it is below, depends on how far below. Is a young, injury prone, stay-at-home D-man worth $5M or $3M? What is the return? Jeff Skinner, Oilers' 1st Round Pick or Wayne Simmons? Let's break them down one at a time:
Jeff Skinner 26 years old, 30 goals, 44 points, $5.73M salary and will be a UFA
Suggested trade: Murray + Conditional Pick (see 1 below) for Jeff Skinner + Conditional Pick (see 2 below) Condition 1: If Skinner signs with CBJ, Buffalo gets a 2nd Round Pick Condition 2: If Skinner does not sign with CBJ, CBJ gets a 3rd Round Pick
Breakdown: Skinner is a rental v. Murray is not a rental but will need to be signed. Skinner is no guarantee to re-sign with a team he gets traded to and its likely to cost more than his current $5.73M. Given the Jackets trade Panarin the Jackets will need to replace production. If they don't trade Panarin, Skinner could be overkill.
Oiler's 1st Round Pick Currently Edmonton sits in 24 which would translate to a #8 pick.
Suggested trade: Murray for EDM 1st Round Pick + Conditional Pick Condition: EDM makes the playoffs CBJ get 3rd round pick too
Breakdown: This one is interesting because of the fluidity of the Oilers' pick. On one hand you could end up in the top 5. The other you could be in the bottom 5. Neither of those scenarios is more likely than the other. However, with Edmonton only 3 points out of a playoff spot they have something to play for. Which means adding a solid roster player is what they are looking for and as they climb the standings they are giving up less and less (lower and lower draft pick). Smart money tells me not to bet against McDavid and look at a 20something draft pick thus the necessity for the conditional pick. Either way C-Bus would be saying that they want a do-over at their first round selection as Murray was a #2 overall pick.
Wayne Simmonds 30 years old, 15 goals, 23 points and $3.98M cap hit. UFA at the end of the season.
Suggested trade: Murray + Conditional Pick (see 1 below) for Simmons + Conditional Pick (see 2 below) Condition 1: If Simmonds signs with CBJ, Philly gets a 4th Round Pick Condition 2: If Simmonds does not sign with CBJ, CBJ gets a 3rd Round Pick
Breakdown: Simmonds is a rental v. Murray is not a rental but will need to be signed. Simmonds is more likely to sign with the CBJ than Skinner, but these players are at different points in their careers. Skinner would be considered young talent while Simmons would be a veteran presence. Both have their value but the young talent has a greater upside. Jackets could keep Panarin and get Simmonds without having any issues on the front end.
As a fan I would love to see Skinner come here, but would want him for more than a rental. He would be an awesome add if Panarin is on his way out.
With so many moving parts this season for the CBJ it is hard to look at moving one guy without looking at the bigger picture.
Does trading Murray make Columbus better in any of these trades? And is that 'better' for the long term or just a few months? Getting a rental must = winning a first round series for it to be successful.