Pavel Buchnevich and Jacob Trouba each file for arbitration by the 5pm deadline Friday. By virtue of at least one player filing, the Rangers can utilize the second buyout windows - which runs from July 20 to August 4, the period of salary arbitration hearings. Rick Carpinello pointed out to me that Brendan Lemieux and Tony DeAngelo are not eligible to file for arbitration while Vinny Lettieri did not elect arbitration, so his contract will be the QO the Rangers offer.
Rangers' RFAs Jacob Trouba and Pavel Buchnevich both filed for salary arbitration today. That will allow the Rangers to use the second buyout window if they chose to do so. #NYR
— Rick Carpiniello (@RickCarpiniello) July 5, 2019
Hockey Stat Miner has a good projection for a possible contract for Buchnevich, which likely will be a bridge and not a long term deal. The range he mentions is in line with what many of us hope will be the contract Buchnevich receives, since the amount will save some cap room. New York could opt for a long term contract and also might deal Buchnevich to free up cap room, though as mentioned, based on what I saw down the stretch and the upside I believe he still has, it would be a mistake to trade him, especially if solely to create cap room. Buchnevich, a 24-year-old who is coming off scoring 21 goals - the majority of which came in the final quarter of the season - and 17 assists, is likely to play on one on the top two lines for the Blueshirts.
By electing arbitration, I believe Buchnevich is now ineligible to receive an offer sheet. A team could have offered him $4 million, which would have only cost a second rounder if New York didn’t match. Given the cap constraints the Rangers are under following the signing of Artemi Panarin, expected deal for Trouba and the other RFAs that need to inked, New York got lucky that Buchnevich filed for arbitration.
I would suspect a 2-yr Buchnevich bridge deal to run between 3.5% - 4% of the cap.
— HockeyStatMiner (@HockeyStatMiner) July 5, 2019
That would translate to $2.85m/yr - $3.25m/yr.
He's in the same spot Hayes & Miller were 3 summers ago (all 3 yrs from UFA, all filed for arb, all got 2-yr deals).
Hayes got 3.56%; Miller 3.77%.
New York didn’t use the first buyout period, which was closed by the time free agency opened. Part of the rationale for not doing so might have been that the team would have cap room if they were unable to sign Panarin. With him under contract, the Rangers need to clear nearly $7 million in cap room to re-sign all their RFA noted above. On the third day after the team’s last arbitration hearing is settled or concluded, they will be provided with a 48-hour window to perform a buyout. Brendan Smith, Marc Staal and Kevin Shattenkirk are all candidates to be bought out. Below is the impact of buying out one of them.
Here’s what it could cost to buyout one of the veteran defensemen and how much cap space it would save each year, according to CapFriendly’s buyout calculator:
Shattenkirk
2019-20 — Cap hit: $1,483,833; Savings: $5,166,667 2020-21 — Cap hit: $6,083,333; Savings: $566,667 2021-22 — Cap hit: $1,433,333; Savings: -$1,433,333 2022-23 — Cap hit: $1,433,333; Savings: -$1,433,333
Staal
2019-20 — Cap hit: $2.9 million; Savings: $2.8 million 2020-21 — Cap hit: $3.7 million; Savings: $2 million 2021-22 — Cap hit: $1.2 million; Savings: -$1.2 million 2022-23 — Cap hit $1.2 million; Savings: -$1.2 million
Smith
2019-20 — Cap hit: $970,833; Savings: $3,379,167 2020-21 — Cap hit: $3,145,833; Savings: $1,204,167 2021-22 — Cap hit: $1,145,833; Savings: -$1,145,833 2022-23 — Cap hit: $1,145,833; Savings: -$1,145,833
Buying out Shattenkirk or Smith would provide substantive savings this season, though not large enough to get New York the amount of cap space needed to re-sign all their RFAs. According to capfriendly.com, the Panarin deal (and other recent transactions) have left the Rangers with $8,018,534 remaining in projected cap space, though Greg McKegg or Boo Nieves can be sent to the minors with no cap ramifications, freeing up a bit more room. Sending down Matt Beleskey, if he passes through waivers, would create a little over a million of cap space. New York will still likely need to make a trade with Vlad Namestnikov, who is making $4 million this season in the final year of his two-year contract, the player most prominently mentioned to be on the block.
The major downside with buying out Shattenkirk or Smith is that the 2020/21 cap hit would be large. The cap charge in that season would be $6,083,333 on Shattenkirk, and $3,145,833 on Smith. As RangerSaver noted, those amounts would be a major portion of their four-year respective totals of $10,433,332, and $6,408,332. Staal would provide a 50% savings on his 2019-20 cap hit this year, with a larger cap hit next season and trailing off, like 'Kirk and Smith the last two years of his deal.
In addition, for all those asking about the cap hit or amount retained if Matt Beleskey or Brendan Smith pass through waivers and is sent down, here you go:
I wrote this in the last blog, but running it again here:
The amount which can be buried in the minors is not the full amount of his cap hit. Meaning that for Beleskey, not all $1.9 mil would come off the books. The same for Smith, even if he passes through waivers, so even though his cap hit is $4.35 million, a large portion of that would remain on the cap even if he passes through waivers and is sent down.
Per HockeyStatMiner, who I trust on all cap hit matters: The rule for burying guys is the max cap relief is $375k + that year's minimum salary. So since the minimum salary next year is $700k, the max burial relief is $700k+$375k=$1.075m. Therefore, Smith's cap hit if buried would be $4.35m - $1.075m = $3.275m