The Blue Jackets used a pretty pedestrian line-up against the Predators on Saturday. They wanted to give their stars a rest and also avoid getting any points so that they could face Washington in the first round and not the Penguins.
Was this smart strategy? Considering the Jackets playoff history with the Penguins I think most would say yes. Personally I think it was a great idea, as I feel the Jackets are a much better team than the Capitals.
By definition Washington is the favourite this series. They were first place in the Metro division and will have home ice advantage. However not everyone sees it that way.
#mymodel has CBJ as underdogs against PIT and favourites against WSH so this is a sensible decision https://t.co/OgpYUoSExf
— dom 🛩 (@domluszczyszyn) April 7, 2018
Dom has not yet put his odds out yet, so we don’t know exactly how big of a favourite he sees the Jackets as, but he does see them as the favourite in this series. He’s not alone.
Moneypuck.com which is an odds making site has the Jackets at 60% to win the series.
Final odds going into playoffs. #NHLJets favourites followed by #TBLightning, #NHLBruins, and #Preds https://t.co/Xm8baqGqGI pic.twitter.com/0zAe50epKU
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) April 9, 2018
Travis Yost at TSN broke down this series and while he doesn’t do projections he has the Jackets over the Capitals in the first round. Yost points to the Jackets significantly stronger 5 on 5 numbers. Whether you look at shot attempts (51.49% Corsi to 47.96%), scoring chances (50.33% HD chances to 45.12%) or just goals (53.31 goals for percentage to 52.63%) the Jackets have the edge.
Eastern Conference playoff preview is up now. Some numbers, thoughts, and predictions on each series: https://t.co/SRWnZ42pZ8
— Travis Yost (@travisyost) April 9, 2018
Others are not so sure of the Jackets. Micah Blake McCurdy and Emmanuel Perry’s models have the Jackets as big underdogs going into the series.
🎆💀🦀 Chances for 2017-2018 with the bracket finally set. Road teams are next to division names, divisional winners on the four corners. pic.twitter.com/FtGQU0JbTP
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 9, 2018
Micah’s model gives them just a 39% chance of advancing. Manny’s is even lower giving the Jackets just a 31% chance.
WSH (69%) - CBJ (31%) pic.twitter.com/P9kACVgGWa
— manny (@MannyElk) April 9, 2018
In all situations the Capitals scored 256 goals, 20 more than the Jackets. The Capitals shoot the puck very well and capitalize on their opportunities. They finished second in the NHL in shooting percentage at 10.76%, just behind Tampa Bay at 10.82%. The Jackets battled shooting percentage woes all season. For a long stretch it was the worst in the league. They finished the season strong and ended up at 8.55%, the 22nd ranked team.
The Capitals also have a massive special teams edge. They finished the season with the seventh ranked power play, while the Jackets penalty kill finished 27th. The Capitals penalty kill was average at 80.3%, and the Jackets power play was well below average at 17.2%. The Capitals lose a lot of ground at 5 on 5, but they make up a ton with really good special teams. The Jackets need to keep the game at 5 on 5.
When the experts are this divided on a team that to me says it’s going to be a close series, making it difficult to pick a favourite. The first couple games of this series are going to be crucial for how this will play out. If the Jackets can play their game at 5 on 5, and if the refs let certain things go as they are known to do in the playoffs then the Jackets will be fine. However, if the Jackets get too involved with scrums and start taking penalties than this could be a very short series for them.
You can follow me on Twitter @PaulBerthelot