Are the Jets under-rated and under respected?
Hockey is an interesting game, as fans and observers we are in a transition period of how to best understand the game. New methods of analyzing what’s happening with teams and individual players allow for a better understanding of what predicts future success and what success is sustainable. There’s much that has been learned and still much more to learn about the game, teams and players.
The Jets by most analysis are over-performing this season based on historical predictive statistics but they should not be ignored for their success. Today they sit third in the league with the third best best goal differential but with the 27th CF%. They move up to 21st when CF% is score and venue adjusted. They are third in the league in PDO, seventh in shooting percentage, and fourth in save percentage.
The numbers can go on. What we end up seeing is stuff like this:
ran a Bradley-Terry model on the NHL season to date:
— Namita (@nnstats) November 24, 2017
- implicitly accounts for schedule toughness
- included a home advantage component
- counted OT/SO games as ties#Isles jump from 9th to 4th leaguewide, #Leafs drop from 8th to 16th pic.twitter.com/GKnbLRATUZ
Team Styles (via Perry's K ratings)
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) November 25, 2017
Min in a defense-first shell (weird).
Mtl stinks.
Tbl is scary good in all facets.
Lots of offensive stuff in NY.https://t.co/HCQLAIrlNu pic.twitter.com/pqqiBh9eIL
Freaking Penguins. pic.twitter.com/Ux2xbRGsT2
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) November 25, 2017
The simple question remains despite not being the best team in deeper, more meaningful numbers the Jets continue to have success and it’s time the rest of the league’s fans and media take notice.
The problem with the fan experience is only for a very small portion do the stats as they happen have meaning, at least for deeper more advanced ones. As games happen they are snap shots of what’s happening in the micro-moment but to accurately gauge the team a more macro view is required.
In the moment though fans want to appreciate the skill of players, the amazing efforts, no matter how infrequent or unlikely to be repeated. In that case the Jets are one of the best stories in the league.
Connor Hellebucyk is 5th in save percentage for all goalies who have played 10 games or more and he’s 4th in goals allowed for all goalies over 15 games played. This is the goalie the Jets and their fans have been waiting for and he might be this good, all the time. If he isn’t acknowledging his play is still important, he’s a huge part of the Jets success.
Mark Schiefele and Blake Wheeler are again point per game players this season and while not near the top as they were a few weeks ago they still anchor the team’s scoring. Patrik Laine and Nik Ehlers are both at 17 points and are supporting the second line scoring while Bryan Little slowly works through an uncharacteristic dry spell.
What’s been overlooked is the value of Mathieu Perreault. After missing 11 games with injury Perreault has come back to play left wing on the fourth line with Hendricks and Armia. Since he return he has 6 points in 6 games but he has also allowed Hendricks to have 2 points in the same 6 games which doubles his output from the previous 9 games. Armia has had the same result with points, doubled since having Perreault join his line.
If Perreault can draw water from a stone on the fourth line what could he do up the line up? The basic point remains is that while Perreault’s skill is above where he plays in a traditional four-line system he has made the bottom six a more dangerous group to face and that’s something the Jets have long needed, just like league average goaltending.
Another important point with this team, it is not playing it’s best hockey, at least by more advanced measurable standards. However it is improving. At even strength the Jets are showing that they are slowly moving to positive possession as CF% as they have been on the right side of 50% 4 of the last 5 games.
The bigger picture remains that while many want to believe in the team they are hesitant due to inevitable regression that seems to catch up with all teams. But remember this, for years the most ardent stats supporters said that the Jets were a playoff team with league average goaltending. To get to a league average there are goalies who are above it and goalies who are below it and Hellebuyck is above it. That’s what’s surprising most people and due to the past 6 seasons of Jets’ goalie frustrations it’s hard to believe that will be sustainable. It just might be and it just might buy the coach and team enough time to figure out how to be better in the other areas of the game that matter too.