One could argue that the game between the Jets and Wild on Wednesday night was decided by chance and luck. They would not be wrong in three cases but not all. First the determining goal by Morrow was all luck and as been debated extensively- not the optimal decision based on time, position and options for him. It went in the net and that's all the matters in hindsight but going forward there needs to be some adjustment by Morrow than to simply hammer the puck with time and space.
Second the blocked shot and subsequent effort by Byfuglien was less than ideal decision making and resulted in a two-on-one that Morrow played poorly but really had no chance on based on the scrambling he had to do to cover for Buff.
Third was the Wild's opening goal where Ehlers and Myers cover the same guy leaving he slot wide open and Chiarot in no man's land. Not ideal but that was it. Scheifele and Laine's goals were nothing short of perfection and little the Wild can do to counter those plays.
So if you look at preventable opportunities the Jets win that game 2-0 or 2-1 still but that likely won't be enough come this evening at the Bell MTS Centre when the two teams play the second game of the series.
The Jets have to realize that Boudreau knows some aspects of their game and style to exploit and he all but mentioned that post-game when he spoke about Byfuglien's tendencies. What the Wild will do is tighten up the middle of the ice and although the Jets had one goal from that area on the PP they had an uncharacteristically low amount from their preferred shooting area.
Thanks to Natural Stattrick you can see the heat map below:
The question would be why aim from the centre of the ice on the largest goalie in the league? One of the long-time beliefs about Dubnyk is that while he possesses a massive frame he also has some mobility problems. He also is know for letting in a bad goal a bit more frequently than some would expect given his talent and size. The Jets beat Dubnyk with Scheifele in the slot and Dubnyk giving up either side as he stayed low in the crease to try to cover for Laine on the side. With Laine's goal he was again positioned but left open an area big enough to beat his glove as Laine moved to the right in the high slot- Dubnyk did not move enough.
It might stand to reason that the Jets want to get the shots from the centre because as Dubnyk squares up he leaves space and perhaps does not square up well enough because his relies on his frame to take away space. Again, if you look at the heat map the Wild did a pretty good job at keep the Jets to the outside for shots given that they had 40 of them.
So the first adjustment for the Jets will be to find ways to draw the Wild players out and get the puck into the middle for shots. Both Buff and Myers tried this from the point a few times coming back to the middle before blasting shots- now the forwards have to try to repeat what Laine did and then Scheifele on the PP.
The Wild, if you look at the heat map, had most of their even strength shots from their left side while they spent much of the game trying to enter the Jets zone on the Jets' left side. After Morrissey, who was smoother than cream cheese on hot rye bread Wednesday night, the left side of the Jets defence leaves much to be desired with Morrow and then Chiarot. For many fans Enstrom cannot come back soon enough, and perhaps for the coach too but if the Jets keep winning it only buys them more time for him to heal.
Given that the entries come on the left and the shots are coming on the right side against the Jets what will the Wild be looking to do? First they may have some stats about where they want to shoot from on Hellebuyck but it may simply be that they want to gain the zone and go from there. The Wild offensive talent is not near what the Jets' is so the biggest adjustment might be the pace of play or action and getting more shots attempts and shots on net could be a priority. Boudreau may also want to change up his lines faster with possession given that there is weakness within the the Jets bottom pairs right now.
To make that faster change could require changing tactics though as when the Wild have gained possession in their zone they literally take off as fast as they can to get the puck out. If they do not have the optimal match-up perhaps they use this time to swap players. This situation is simply discussed as an option because the roster is not as deep and Boudreau might want to create preferred match-ups where and when he can.
Given the ramifications of this game and the opening night nerves have passed what do we see? No lead is safe with the Jets when they are skating but Dubnyk with a lead can shut the door as well as anyone. Both coaches want a lead but the difference is, as we saw on Wednesday, when the Wild had to open the game up more, the Jets were simply able to shut them down, holding them shot-less for nearly 15 minutes. Good luck with that.
If the Jets come out moving like the third period this could be a very fun game but slow starts have been known to bite them in the rear at times. Make sure that doesn't happen and I'd expect a Jets win again.
It's believe that Jack Roslovic will be the option if Perreault becomes a game time decision not to play.