At this point, it's fairly clear that Mathew Barzal is the best forward on the New York Islanders. But once you look past him, there’s a grey area in terms of who the team’s second-best forward is.
There are really only four potential options here, in Josh Bailey, Jordan Eberle, Anders Lee and Brock Nelson (yes, I'm leaving Anthony Beauvillier off that list at this point). This article will look at the four and try to determine who the team’s second-best forward is.
- OVERVIEW -
Of the four, Bailey and Eberle have the most significant consistency problems. Both can be quite effective when they’re on their game but sometimes they just don’t show up. Lee, on the other hand, almost never fails to give 100 per cent but he does have a ceiling in terms of offensive production. Nelson would’ve never been considered as the team’s second-best forward two years ago but he’s taken a big step since taking over as the team’s second-line center.
- STATS -
Below are the stats for each player, combining the last two seasons (2018-19 and 2019-20):
Some things to note here: Eberle’s poor 2018-19 season is largely responsible for bringing his point totals down here. Also, even though Bailey ranks second in points per 82 and points per 60, he’s also scored at the lowest rate by far and was tied for the least points of the four players in the 2019-20 season. He also had a shooting percentage of 14.9 per cent this year, which was the highest of his career. Nelson had the same shooting percentage but he was also around 14 per cent in the two previous seasons, meaning it’s more sustainable for Nelson than it is for Bailey.
- VERDICT -
To me, even though Bailey has actually been fairly consistent with his production, he’s not an impact player. In my opinion, playing with other talented players has been a major factor as to why he has the stats that he does.
It gets more tricky with the last three forwards. When he’s at the top of his game, Eberle is the best player. That said, you don’t know what kind of player you’re going to get with him on any given night and he can go stretches of games at a time where he just fails to show up. This is a pretty major red flag with him.
With Lee, he’s one of the hardest workers on the team and is a true goal scorer. It’s never a matter of effort with him and he’s also strong defensively, which is a huge plus. But he does have a ceiling and he’s probably not going to hit 40 goals and 60 points again like he did in the 2017-18 season. The reality with Lee is that he’ll probably fit more into a range of 25-30 goals and 50-55 points per season going forward.
Then there’s Nelson. He was a secondary piece for the Islanders until John Tavares left and since then, he’s done a great job adjusting to a larger role. Like Lee, it’s rarely a question of effort with Nelson but given the fact that he’s only really reached a new level in the last two seasons, we don’t know what kind of numbers he’ll put up going forward.
To recap: If each player is performing at the top of their game, I believe Eberle is the best player. But Lee is the most consistent player and the hardest worker. Nelson is the wild card but has been the best of the three players over the last two seasons.
It’s a difficult decision but I’m going with Brock Nelson. He has the consistency and we’ve now seen he has the upside. As long as he’s able to continue with the play we’ve seen in the last two seasons, to me, he’s New York’s second-best forward.
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Here’s today’s poll question (results and discussion will be posted next weekend):
Who do you think is New York's second-best forward?
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