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The biggest move the New York Islanders made this season was acquiring Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Ottawa at the trade deadline.
I’ve been vocal about my mixed feelings towards the Pageau deal. On one hand, I think he’ll be a great third-line center for the Islanders and gives the team some quality depth down the middle. On the other, I can’t say that it was worth giving up both a first and second-round pick to get him, then paying him $5 million per year on top of that.
The main reason is that I believe he was overvalued, based on his numbers this season. He may have been on pace for 32 goals and 51 points but those numbers aren’t consistent with his career totals. Here’s what his goals and points per 82 average has been over his last six seasons:
The last two years have been outliers. His shooting percentage was way off from his career average, at just 4.8 per cent in 2018-19, then all the way up at 17.2 per cent this season. If his shot totals are adjusted to his career shooting percentage of 10.8 per cent, he’d have been on pace for between 35 and 40 points in both seasons.
Something else to note with Pageau is that he was playing over 19 minutes per game when he put up 40 points in 60 games with Ottawa this season. However, over his career, he's averaged just over 16 minutes per game. I’d maybe expect to see him play more than that with the Islanders, however, New York's only forwards to average more than 18 minutes per game this season were Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson and Anders Lee.
Next season, I probably wouldn’t expect to see Pageau’s goal totals fall below 10 goals or exceed 20 goals. In terms of points, it’s likely we see him in a range of somewhere between 30 and 40 points next season.
Here’s today’s poll question (results and discussion will be posted tomorrow):
How many points do you expect from Pageau next season?
New York Islanders Blogger • 
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