Marlies Up 2-0 in Calder Cup Finals: Which Prospects Will Make John Chayka’s Maple Leafs?
The Toronto Marlies currently hold a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Chicago Wolves in the Calder Cup Finals. I want to preface this analysis with a healthy dose of reality: teams that find the most success in the American Hockey League are traditionally built around an abundance of successful veterans, and the Marlies are no different. So, while a deep playoff run is a massive positive for the organization's culture, AHL success doesn’t always translate directly to the NHL. Don't make the immediate assumption that hoisting the Calder Cup instantly upgrades the Maple Leafs' prospect pool from average to elite.
However, this doesn't mean the Leafs won't see players from this current Marlies squad make the jump into successful NHL contributors. After grinding through three rounds against stiff competition and taking the first two games of the Finals, this roster has showcased a never-say-die attitude and a commitment to each other that has helped them overcome the odds. GM John Chayka will be watching closely as he navigates the summer trade market, roster crunches and hiring of a new coach.
Excluding Easton Cowan, who will undeniably be a full-time NHL player next year without question, here is my breakdown of the Marlies prospects, categorized by who could make the jump, who will make the jump, and one intriguing wild card.
Players Who Could Make the Jump
Tverberg got a brief cup of coffee with the Maple Leafs this year, dressing for two games. His potential promotion next season heavily depends on whether he gets leapfrogged by additional organizational depth like Miroslav Hlonka.
The Case for Tveberg: Tverberg put up 36 points in the AHL regular season. During his NHL stint in April, he recorded a max skating speed of 20.95 mph, putting him right in the conversation for functional NHL pace. To secure a spot, he needs to elevate his high-speed physicality and improve his offensive zone puck-retrieval rates against bigger NHL defenders.
Hildeby technically belongs in the "will play" section, but the narrative surrounding him is complex. The looming question is whether John Chayka uses him as trade bait to upgrade the roster elsewhere. If he survives the offseason without being dealt, he will almost certainly be on the Maple Leafs' opening night roster.
The Case for Hildeby: At 6-foot-7, Hildeby’s profile is about crease presence and lateral power. His high-danger save percentage hovered around .835 during the AHL regular season, but his true standout metric is his lateral push speed. Advanced tracking shows he covers post-to-post distance faster than the NHL average, effectively taking away the bottom of the net. In a well coached system that forces shots from the outside, a goaltender with Hildeby's wingspan and lateral explosiveness is a massive asset.
Villeneuve has paid his dues and could finally get his shot at the NHL next year. However, given his impending waiver requirements for next season, that opportunity might not come in Toronto. Chayka may be forced to make a move here to avoid losing an asset for nothing.
The Case for Villeneuve: Villeneuve is an offensive leaning right-shot defender who scored 30 points in 61 regular-season AHL games and exploded for 19 points in 21 playoff games during this Calder Cup run. To make the jump to the NHL permanently, his "functional grit" needs focus. NHL EDGE tracking during his three-game NHL stint showed his max skating speed at 20.30 mph (just below the NHL average of 21.59 mph for defensemen). However, his puck-retrieval data under heavy forecheck pressure in the AHL playoffs has been excellent. If he can process the game a half-second faster at the NHL level to absorb contact while making the first pass, he will stick.
Players Who Will Play NHL Games
Bo Groulx
Groulx proved during his 13-game stint with the Maple Leafs this season, tallying three goals and two assists, that he firmly deserves a chance to play in the NHL. At 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, the 26-year-old brings a reliable two-way game, a heavy, above-average shot, and a 200-foot mentality that fits perfectly into a bottom-six role. In the AHL, he was dominant, racking up 28 goals and 52 points in 59 regular-season games for the Marlies.
The Case for Groulx: Groulx excels in functional grit and offensive efficiency. While his max skating speed of 22.09 mph sits right at the NHL average, he uses his frame effectively to shield the puck and disrupt defensive breakouts. His hit volume on the forecheck is consistently high, and during his NHL call-up, he capitalized on his chances with an elite 20.0% shooting percentage. He is practically purpose-built for Craig Berube's heavy, grinding system.
Quillan is primed to fiercely compete for the Maple Leafs' 4th-line center role. While the 24-year-old logged NHL games earlier in his professional transition after signing as a free agent, he never received a proper, extended opportunity to establish his rhythm under Berube. The former ECAC Best Defensive Forward is a workhorse who thrives in low-event, high-leverage defensive situations.
The Case for Q: Quillan’s true value lies in his defensive zone starts and penalty-killing utility. Scouting reports consistently highlight his highly translatable game habits, relentless motor, and high effort levels. His puck-retrieval data along the wall ranks among the top tier of Marlies forwards, showcasing his willingness to engage in the dirty areas, win 50/50 puck battles, and safely transition the puck out of the defensive zone.
Haymes truly earned his stripes this year, transitioning seamlessly out of Dartmouth College and immediately making an impact at the professional level. The 22-year-old posted 17 goals and 33 points in 66 AHL games and even made his four-game NHL debut in April, picking up his first career assist. He will be going head-to-head with Quillan in training camp for that 4th-line center vacancy.
The Case for Haymes: Haymes is a goal-scoring, 200-foot center who has demonstrated a sharp offensive evolution. His transition to the pro game highlighted his ability to excel along the walls and battle at the net front. While his NHL EDGE max skating speed clocked in at 20.35 mph during his brief call-up, his growth in high-speed physicality and intensity without the puck proves he can absorb hits, maintain possession, and play the heavy game required at the NHL level.
Akhtyamov in my opinion has surpassed Hildeby on the organization's depth chart, cementing himself in the eyes of many as the undisputed goalie of the future. He has been nothing short of spectacular, boasting a 12-6-0 record and a .927 save percentage through the first three rounds of the Calder Cup Playoffs. He has played his way into being the first call-up, or even securing an NHL role out of camp. However, his waiver-exempt status gives Chayka the flexibility to keep him in the AHL to start the year.
The Case for Akhtyamov: Beyond his stellar 12-6-0 record and .927 save percentage in the Calder Cup Playoffs, Akhtyamov’s underlying analytics are what make him the goalie of the future. His rebound-control metrics are elite; he swallows initial shots and drastically limits secondary scoring chances. Furthermore, his "functional athleticism" rating, measuring his ability to reset his feet and square up after chaotic scrambles, is the best in the Maple Leafs' prospect pool. He doesn't just stop the puck; he actively kills the opposing team's offensive momentum.
It might not happen early in the year, but Ben Danford will find his way onto the Maple Leafs' roster this season, and once he arrives, he won’t give that spot up anytime soon. Joining the Marlies late after a deep OHL run, the 20-year-old just scored his first professional goal in Game 1 of the Calder Cup Finals, already making a strong impression.
The Case for Danford: Danford possesses a hockey IQ well beyond his age. His closing speed on loose pucks and willingness to engage in the corners make his skill set highly transferable. He just needs a bit more AHL seasoning to adapt to the speed of the pro game and iron out rookie mistakes before his eventual NHL growth is fully realized.
The Wild Card and my Favorite
Landon Sim is easily my favorite player on this list and someone who I believe could make a difference in unique ways in the NHL. Sim is the absolute definition of a shit-disturber, and he is exactly the type of player who could burst onto the NHL scene before anyone realizes what hit them. The 21-year-old just signed a two-year entry-level contract with the Maple Leafs in April after splitting his first pro season between the Cincinnati Cyclones (ECHL) and the Toronto Marlies. At 5-foot-11 and 187 pounds, he plays significantly bigger than his frame suggests. Coming off back-to-back OHL Championships and a Memorial Cup with the London Knights, where he scored 30 goals in his final junior year, he knows exactly what it takes to win in high-pressure environments.
The Case for Sim: Sim is the modern blueprint for what an agitator should be. While an early-season injury limited his pro games this year, his functional grit is off the charts. In just 13 regular-season games with the Marlies, he racked up 31 penalty minutes and 3 goals, perfectly translating his aggressive style to the pro level. He throws his weight around with reckless abandon, and his "engagement rate" (the percentage of shifts where he registers a hit, drawn penalty, or contested puck battle) is the highest of any forward in the system. He genuinely skates well enough to keep up with an NHL fourth line, making him a dark horse to win over any coaching staff in training camp as a high-energy wrecking ball.
The Final Takeaway
While the Maple Leafs might not be flush with blue-chip, top-line superstars or elite top-pairing defensive prospects, what the organization is incredibly ripe with is high-motor depth talent. These are players capable of filling out a roster while playing a very important role when it comes to intangibles.
Combining these analytical profiles with the invaluable knowledge of what it takes to win a championship, albeit at the AHL level, can be considered nothing but valuable and positive for the Leafs organization. John Chayka has the depth pieces he needs; now, it's about deploying them effectively to support the core.