Toronto Maple Leafs Draft Lottery Nightmare: How the Brandon Carlo Trade Complicates a Tank

When the Toronto Maple Leafs posted a dominant 7-0-2 stretch through December and January, it seemed the organization had finally shaken off its early-season struggles. Following a statement victory against Colorado, their record sat at a comfortable 23-15-7.

Since that peak, however, the wheels have completely fallen off.

A dismal 4-9-2 run has dragged their record down to 27-24-9. With playoff hopes all but dashed, the Leafs now appear poised to become outright sellers ahead of the March 6th NHL Trade Deadline. But if you think the front office can simply pivot to a rebuild and secure a high draft pick, think again.

The Brad Treliving Trade Blunder

The process of tanking is exponentially more complicated for Toronto, thanks to a shortsighted move made by GM Brad Treliving at last year’s deadline.

In the deal that brought Brandon Carlo to Toronto from the Boston Bruins, the Leafs packaged their 2026 first-round pick. While conventional wisdom dictates a standard "doomsday clause", usually top-10 protection, to prevent handing a premium lottery pick to a bitter divisional rival, Treliving inexplicably secured only top-5 protection.

NHL Draft Lottery Odds: Caught in the Middle

This singular decision has cornered the franchise. Even if the Leafs lose out the rest of the season, securing a bottom-five pick is far from guaranteed.

Toronto currently sits 22nd in the NHL, holding the 11th-best odds for the Draft Lottery. While they are only three points ahead of the 26th-place spot, sinking any lower becomes mathematically treacherous. The Calgary Flames (28th) are currently a full nine points behind Toronto.

Even if the Leafs somehow managed to plummet to that 28th spot, they would still only hold the 5th-best lottery odds. This leaves them incredibly vulnerable to being jumped in the lottery by a team behind them, which would push their pick outside the top five and automatically default it to Boston.

Source: NHL League Page @ Elite Prospects

The Out-of-Town Scoreboard

With desperation setting in to somehow ensure that pick lands in the bottom five, every single game across the league matters to Leafs Nation right now. Let’s dive into the ultimate best-case scenario on the out-of-town scoreboard for today, Sunday, March 1st.

Source: NHL League Page @ Elite Prospects

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

Ideal Result: Penguins win in regulation.

Tank Impact: The Penguins (72P) are currently ahead of Toronto in the standings. While we aren't "chasing" them in the traditional sense, any points picked up by teams in the 70-point range ensures that the "basement" floor remains high. We need the middle of the pack to stay well clear of our 63-point mark to solidify our lottery odds.

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Utah Mammoth

Ideal Result: Blackhawks win in overtime.

Tank Impact: This is a massive multipoint opportunity for the tank. Chicago (53P) is currently trailing the Leafs by 10 points. If we want any hope of sliding into a bottom-five slot, we need teams like Chicago and Utah (66P) to go on a heater. A Blackhawks win helps close the gap between the true bottom-feeders and the Leafs.

Winnipeg Jets vs. San Jose Sharks 

Ideal Result: Jets win in OT/SO. 

Tank Impact: Today’s game between Winnipeg and San Jose is probably the most important game of the day for the Leafs. Any situation where both teams secure a point would be extremely beneficial to Toronto. Ideally the Jets secure the two points and help narrow the gap between the teams to 6 points, however a Sharks win also helps to reduce the points gap as well. 

St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild

Ideal Result: Blues win in any fashion.

Tank Impact: St. Louis sits at 51 points, making them a key player in the draft lottery standings. For the Leafs to secure a top-5 pick, we need the Blues to start leapfrogging teams. Every point St. Louis gains makes the Leafs’ 63-point cushion look a little less comfortable, which is exactly what we want.

Florida Panthers vs. New York Islanders 

Ideal Result: Panthers win in regulation.

Tank Impact: The Panthers (63P) are currently tied with the Leafs in the Atlantic Division standings. This is a direct "positional" battle for lottery seeds. An Islanders win keeps Florida stagnant, but a Panthers win pushes them ahead of Toronto, effectively dropping the Leafs lower in the league standings and increasing that lottery percentage.

Calgary Flames vs. Anaheim Ducks

Ideal Result: Flames win in regulation.

Tank Impact: Calgary (54P) is another team the Leafs are watching closely in the rearview mirror. We need the Flames to continue picking up points to ensure the Leafs don't "fall" into a higher seed by default. A Calgary win keeps the bottom of the league tight and competitive.

The State of the Tank: Toronto Maple Leafs 

After the "embarrassing" (to quote Auston Matthews) loss to Ottawa last night, the Leafs have now dropped three in a row. While it hurts the pride, it’s exactly what the doctor ordered for the long-term health of the franchise. The Leafs are back in action tomorrow against the Philadelphia Flyers in what can only be considered, a must lose game. 

Next Game: Monday, March 2 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (65P).