Last year I took a look at some of the Penguins prospect players and what the probability was that they would make an impact at the NHL level. I used data that was created by Josh Weissbock to assist in those predictions. Since then Josh has been hired by the Florida Panthers and we can look back at some of those predictions and try to make a few new ones with the players that just entered the Penguins system professionally.
So 19-21 yo AHL forward prospects, scoring 0.7 ppg seems to be the benchmark; @ 22-23 it jumps to 1.0 ppg pic.twitter.com/VucQe1nEys
— Josh Weissbock (@joshweissbock) July 20, 2015
Here is the chart from last year
Pittsburgh had a few players who were transitioning from that .7 points per game age to the 1.0 points per game range last year. The leaders were Conor Sheary and Scott Wilson. Those two players are probably still the most likely of that grouping to find offensive success in the NHL. Sheary played a top six role during the championship run while Wilson was hurt and unavailable. Wilson should be given a legit chance to make the NHL roster in training camp. Bryan Rust admirably filled in on Malkin's line during the run. Kuhnhackl found his place on the fourth line and made the most of his opportunity.
Some people will take these parameters literally instead of as guides. If they worked literally this whole scouting thing would be something anybody could do, hence Josh's hashtag of #probabilitiesnotdestinies. What this does is shine light on players like Sheary who more than likely would have been an afterthought because of his size just a few years ago.
It is also worth mentioning that the AHL does a pretty bad job on the statistical front. Possession information is tracked by third parties doing the best they can and not by the league itself. The possession stats are usually team based and not individual based. As a result things like points per game is about the best thing available at the present time. Even if you wanted to invest a ton of time (and hundreds of dollars) into scouting the AHL their online game package consists of beaming you the feed from their scoreboard. It isn't a great production.
Here is some updated information using this probability baseline
I put Wilson and Sheary back on there because they played 30+ games for WBS last year. You can see that they are definitely at that 1.0 points per game benchmark for their age and maintain a good probability to find sustained NHL work. Dominik Simon is at that benchmark as well. Simon's opportunity might not come with the Penguins because of limited job availability but it is a decent sign none the less. Oskar Sundqvist has been tabbed as Matt Cullen's replacement if he does not re-sign with the club. Last year was his first year in North America. Dea is only 21 years old but he is going to have to show better in his 22 year old season if he wants to make a push to the NHL somewhere.
The two other members on this chart have an incredibly small sample size (10 playoff games each) and I put them on there because they are the only two forwards left of note that played with WBS last year. These are guys to watch in 2016-17. Guentzel acclimated himself to the AHL in impressive fashion with the games that he played. Can he continue to find success at near a point per game? What can Teddy Blueger do with a full season of AHL action awaiting him? Keep these point per game baselines in mind while evaluating their progress next year.
Pittsburgh has a few defensemen to track next year as well. The first is Lukas Bengtsson. Last year was his first full year playing in the SHL with Frolunda and he was able to put up 14 points in 30 games while winning the SHL championship with his team. Bengtsson was signed as an undrafted free agent and had interest around the league.
Of Drafted players, likelihood of becoming NHL regulars if still playing in the SHL at each age: pic.twitter.com/FNEQubfJfO
— Josh Weissbock (@joshweissbock) July 21, 2015
The asterisk to this is chart that Bengtsson was undrafted so make of that data what you will. He would fall in that 21 year old range.
The second defenseman is Ethan Prow. He had 38 points in 37 games his senior year with St. Cloud State. In seven games with WBS last year he had one assist.
The benchmark for Lukas Bengtsson will be 0.5 points per game next year (assuming he goes to WBS) and for Prow it will be 0.7 points per game due to their ages. Remember, probabilities not destinies.
Past 22, AHL defence men need to score ~0.7 ppg or higher otherwise their odds of a long nhl career diminish
— Josh Weissbock (@joshweissbock) July 20, 2015
Derrick Pouliot played in 37 AHL games last year and had a .62 points per game in his 20 year old season.
Josh provides a good baseline to start that analysis process in the AHL. Keep it in mind when discussing potential NHL prospects who are in the AHL.
****
Sticking with the AHL theme today the Baby Penguins hired two new assistant coaches yesterday.
Chris Taylor and J.D. Forrest named Penguins assistant coaches for the 2016-17 season: https://t.co/NVakCy4ltu pic.twitter.com/op9jPyGexH
— WBS Penguins (@WBSPenguins) August 2, 2016
Jason Botterill is the general manager of WBS and it is worth noting that he has a personal connection to Chris Taylor. In 2002-03 the two led the Rochester Americans in scoring when they were teammates
Jason Botterill's career was cut short by concussions. He was a decent player in his own right.
Thanks for reading!
.png){kind=spacer}