Yesterday I made my playoff selections for the Eastern Conference (find them here). While I found the East difficult to sort through I think the Western Conference is even more of a bear to predict.
With the Kings missing out on the playoffs that is one less super power which makes things open up a little bit more.
Let’s jump right into it.
Vancouver Canucks vs. Calgary Flames
The Calgary Flames are a team that I didn’t have anywhere near a playoff berth due to their underlying numbers. Much to their credit they fought through their possession woes to make things work. They only have a Score-Adjusted Fenwick of 46.1% in the last 20 games of the season. This is about where they have been all season long.
Vancouver is probably the most vanilla team in this entire tournament. They don’t do anything terrible but don’t really do anything great either. Their possession in the most recent 20 games is only 48.1%.
Here are the 10 game rolling average of Score-Adjusted Fenwick on the year:
Vancouver has been the better team the entire year except for right now. Calgary drawing Vancouver in round one was very fortunate as they are the only team I think they can beat.
Honestly, I believe think these two teams are the bottom two in the entire playoffs. One of them will get to move on with the current playoff setup
*Let top seeds pick their opponents*
I can’t believe I’m doing it but I am picking Calgary to win a playoff series this year.
Calgary in 7
Winnipeg Jets vs Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim once again has the best record in the Western Conference and once again I do not have them as a favorite. I think this year’s version of the Anaheim Ducks is better than last year’s, but I don’t think they were rewarded for their regular season success. Drawing Winnipeg is a tough pill to swallow.
Both of these teams are playing great hockey down the stretch. In the last 20 games their Score-Adjusted Fenwicks are the two best of the Western Conference playoff teams. Winnipeg is at 54.1% and Anaheim is at 53.9%.
Winnipeg has been the more stable team on the possession front this year and that was with them going through a stretch of time with their defense corp. decimated by injury.
The wild card for this series will be goaltending. Classically speaking Ondrej Pavelec has been a dumpster fire throughout his career but this year he has posted respectable numbers. For his career Pavelec has been a below average .918 at even strength. This year that number is .930. I still don’t trust him but I am going to say that he plays average and gives Winnipeg a fighting chance. Bruce Boudreau usually has a quick hook with his goaltenders in the playoffs and that has never really worked into his favor.
Whoever wins this series has a huge advantage because they would be facing the winner of Calgary/Vancouver which is much more appealing than having to deal with STL/MIN or CHI/NSH.
This is a coin flip series. Sorry Anaheim but the playoff format did not help you at all this year.
Winnipeg in 7
St. Louis vs. Minnesota
At first I thought this series was going to be the most difficult to pick in the entire first round. St. Louis is an excellent team with very few weaknesses and Minnesota is also a quality roster.
Minnesota has had an interesting season. At the beginning of the year they were possession darlings who were receiving atrocious goaltending. This resulted in below desirable results and some people thought that the Wild would need to replace Mike Yeo. Then Devan Dubnyk was acquired and goaltending went from a liability to a strength. But then their possession started to slip, then rebound, and now it has fallen off of a cliff.
I was prepared to make Minnesota my dark horse Stanley Cup pick but their recent dip in possession has poured cold water on that.
St. Louis has been a solid team for years with very tough first round matchups and this year is no different on that front. I think having Vladimir Tarasenko turning into a superstar before our very eyes gives St. Louis a dynamic they haven’t had before. Throw Paul Stastny into the mix and the Blues have never been deeper.
St. Louis in 6
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators
The Predators started the first half of the season on fire. At one point they were the favorite for the President’s Trophy. Nashville was unable to maintain that pace.
Chicago started the season as a top possession team (as expected) however throughout the course of the year they have found themselves coming up short of previous years standard. The Blackhawks underlying numbers are not near where they have been.
Now let me first say that even the Blackhawks lower numbers are more than acceptable, but the Blackhawks are the Blackhawks because they have that incredibly high ceiling to be around ~56%.
In 2011-12 (other low point on graph) they lost in the first round to the Phoenix Coyotes.
I also believe the Blackhawks can take advantage of perception vs. reality. Most people still think Shea Weber is a shutdown defenseman but the numbers don’t support that. I can see Nashville trying to match Weber up against the Toews line but that probably won’t go so well:
Some #SuperWOWY for playoff Matchups. Toews+Hossa vs Shea Weber last 3yrs: 85:14, 61.8CF%, 80.0GF%.
— David Johnson (@hockeyanalysis) April 15, 2015
I still think that the Blackhawks are the better team and getting Patrick Kane back into the lineup is going to do Chicago a lot of good.
I am taking Chicago in this matchup.
Chicago in 6
Second Round
Winnipeg vs. Calgary
As stated above this is where the current playoff setup is going to play out nicely for some of the teams in the tournament. Winnipeg has a much easier second round matchup than they had in the first round.
I view Winnipeg as the superior club at all positions except for goaltending. I look for this to be a short series.
Winnipeg in 5
Chicago Blackhawks vs. St. Louis Blues
Two heavyweights enter, one team gets to punch their ticket to the Western Conference Finals. Remember those possession stats from above for Chicago? I think this is the series where it catches up to them. I am going to break down their possession a little bit further.
The Blackhawks are still generating a similar amount of shot volume towards the other team’s goal. The change has been in their ability to defend
Chicago is way down from their normal standard of shot suppression. Perhaps they are feeling the sting of losing somebody like Nick Leddy.
St. Louis has been consistently in the top five in shot suppression the past few years like Chicago, but this year they are still at that level while Chicago is not.
Corey Crawford will have a more difficult time during this playoff run if these numbers hold.
I think this is the year that St. Louis finally gets to the Conference Finals.
Stan Bowman's job difficulty will increase this summer as Toews and Kane's contract extensions kick in. St. Louis in 7
Western Conference Finals
St. Louis Blues vs. Winnipeg Jets
First off, can you imagine the scene in Winnipeg for a Conference Finals?
There are some big bodies on each of these teams and this should be a very physical series. Given that I have the Jets winning their second round series in only five games this could be very beneficial for Winnipeg.
Alas, I am sticking with St. Louis.
While I don’t think the Blues have the best goaltending tandem in the playoffs I also do not think the Jets will get competent goaltending for three consecutive rounds in the playoffs. I look for the David Backes line to wear down the Jets and for Tarasenko’s grouping to clean up the leftovers.
This is when acquiring Zbynek Michalek will start to pay dividends for the Blues. They will be able to allocate the ice time of their defensemen in a way that doesn’t burn them out.
Welcome back to the Stanley Cup Final St. Louis. Good news, no Bobby Orr.
St. Louis in 7
Stanley Cup Final
St. Louis Blues vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Tons of great players in this series. This would be a really fun matchup to watch.
These are two extremely close teams as far as their skill level and depth.
Possession and shot suppression is very similar. The only difference is that Ben Bishop hasn’t quite had the year he had in 2013-14. The Blues have received just marginally better goaltending than Tampa Bay.
This series is a true coin flip if both rosters are healthy.
Congratulations to the St. Louis Blues on your first ever Stanley Cup
St. Louis in 7
My pick for the Conn Smythe Trophy is Vladimir Tarasenko
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Thanks for reading!