So who is going to win the Stanley Cup this year?
Honestly, I don’t think there is a person out there that can confidently state the answer to this question. There are no clear cut favorites in this field. After skimming through the first round matchups I am just as likely to see my Stanley Cup prediction lose in the first round as they are to make it to the Final (last year I picked San Jose).
Today I am going to do my best to pick the Eastern Conference.
New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
As I wrote yesterday this is a series that is probably closer than some think. The Rangers are not the possession darlings they were last year in their run to the Stanley Cup Final. Last year in the last 20 games New York had a Score-Adjusted Fenwick of 53.9% and this year it is 49.1%. The Penguins are decent at possession/shot suppression but they can’t score. I believe Henrik Lundqvist will once again be the difference.
I wrote a more extensive breakdown of each team’s strengths and weaknesses for Hockey Prospectus that you can find here.
Rangers in 7
Ottawa Senators vs. Montreal Canadiens
The Ottawa Senators are the hottest team entering the playoffs. They played their asses off to climb the standings in the past month and a half. Montreal has been at the top of the Atlantic Division for much of the season. Both teams have been the beneficiary of solid goaltending with Montreal getting a Hart caliber season from Carey Price.
I believe a ton of Montreal’s success is predicated on Carey Price being unbelievable. If he slips even a little bit I’m not sure Montreal has what it takes to survive.
Possession wise Ottawa is the much better team.
In this series I am taking the red hot Ottawa Senators
Senators in 6
New York Islanders vs. Washington Capitals
This series is incredibly difficult to predict. For much of the season the New York Islanders were one of the elite possession teams in the league but they have slipped in that area to close out the year.
Washington has the best goal scorer in the sport and his supporting cast is playing a decent level again for the first time since Bruce Boudreau was coaching the team. Barry Trotz has the Capitals creeping towards those former years of dominance. They aren’t quite there but it has been a step in the right direction.
The Islanders have been buried by poor goaltending in year’s past and now have the competent Jaro Halak in net, but Washington has one of the underrated goaltenders in the league in Braden Holtby. Holty put up an EVSV% of .930 this year while Halak was hovering around league average of .922.
Alex Ovechkin vs John Tavares will be fun to watch. This is a pick’ em series but I am going with Washington.
Capitals in 7
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings
Steve Yzerman’s Lightning will take on the team he played for during his legendary career.
Both of these teams have been playing identical hockey on the possession front down the stretch. Score-Adjusted Fenwick for Tampa the last 20 games is 51.3% and Detroit is at 51.2%.
Both have solid forward depth throughout the lineup with a mix of veteran and young players who are able to make tangible contributions.
The difference between these two teams is on the back end. Tampa Bay has the tremendous Victor Hedman and the underrated Anton Stralman leading the way and while Detroit still has Nicklas Kronwall his supporting cast is not nearly as good as Tampa Bay’s. Goaltending is intriguing because Mike Babcock has elected to go with Petr Mrazek instead of Jimmy Howard. Mrazek played well this year with his .931 EVSV% compared to Howard’s .922. Ben Bishop of Tampa Bay went from being way above average last year (.933) to being right at the league average this year .922.
I see Detroit being a few defensemen short from winning this series. Could this be it for Mike Babcock in Detroit?
Tampa Bay in 6
Second Round
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Ottawa Senators
I had Ottawa getting by Montreal because of Montreal’s poor underlying numbers beyond Carey Price. I do not not have them getting past one of the Eastern Conferences better teams in this series. Tampa is too deep with too many decent players for the Senators to continue their miraculous run.
Tampa Bay in 5
Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers
It will be Capitals and Rangers for what feels like the 10th time in as many years. This two teams love to face each other in the playoffs.
I had the Rangers getting by the Penguins based on their superior depth and Henrik Lundqvist but the Capitals have more balance than Pittsburgh and their goaltending from Holtby has been statistically at the same level as King Henrik this year (.930 vs. .929)
On intriguing matchup here will be the Capitals #1 power play in the NHL (25.3%) up against the Rangers sixth best penalty kill (84.3%).
The Capitals have been the better possession team this year and they have the best goal scorer. I am betting on Ovechkin playing great and the rest of the Capitals supporting him.
Capitals in 7
Eastern Conference Final
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Washington Capitals
Two enemies from the old Southeast Division will face off for the Eastern Conference title this year.
Alex Ovechkin and Steven Stamkos are consistently regarded as the two best goal scorers in hockey and now each player has their team one round away from the Stanley Cup Final. This would be Ovechkin’s first time in the Conference Final. Steven Stamkos’ Lightning finished one game short of making the Stanley Cup Final in 2011 when they lost to the Bruins in seven games.
With most players battered and battling some kind of injury I tend to lean towards teams that have better depth and in my opinion that team is Tampa Bay. I also have Tampa Bay playing a five game series in round two which will help them out as well.
Ovechkin will have to wait for his first visit to the Stanley Cup Final. Tampa Bay returns to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2004.
Tampa Bay in 7
This conference should be fun to watch unfold. There are many feasible outcomes in these matchups. I have Washington making it to the Eastern Conference Finals, but they could just as easily lose to the New York Islanders in round one.
Not an easy year to make predictions by any stretch.
Thanks for reading!
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