Over the course of the next week or so I am going to release divisional previews. I will be starting in the West and work my way East and finish with the Metropolitan Division. These previews will provide the order that I believe each time will finish in and some general thoughts about what the 2016-17 season has in store for each team.
Today is the Central Division
This division has what I consider a clear cut favorite. Five teams that can finish anywhere between 2nd and 6th, and then a bottom team.
Nashville
The future is now for the Nashville Predators. They are an extremely well built team. The strength of their team is their defense and they even found a way to improve that this offseason. Trading Shea Weber for PK Subban is one of the best trades of all-time (as long as you got PK). The idea of PK Subban going from Michael Therrien to Peter Laviolette leaves one thinking about a second Norris Trophy for the former Canadien.
Biggest question: Is Pekka Rinne going to sink this team? Rinne has a reputation in the league as being one of the best at his position but this isn't the reality. He is not good at stopping high danger shots. Since 2012-13 out of goalies who have played at least 2,000 even strength minutes he ranks 55 out of 63 in his high-danger save percentage. This is not what you want. If Nashville wants to roll the dice with Rinne again they should at least be thinking about a competent backup which will probably be needed.
For years under Barry Trotz the Predators weren't really known for scoring goals. Between the coaching change and some of the personnel moves (Johansen, Forsberg, Neal) this team has been a lot more fun on that front. Their ability to drive play and have players who can finish is what makes them so dangerous moving forward.
Dallas
The Stars won the highly competitive Central Division last year and they may have won the subjective award for most fun team to watch. Lindy Ruff has no issue letting his skilled players try to make skilled plays. He still has a lineup full of players who can do just that. Losing Valeri Nichushkin is inconvenient, but Jim Nill did a great job by filling that slot with 5v5 offensive machine Jiri Hudler. A team with Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza, Patrick Sharp, Jiri Hudler, and Alex Hemsky is going to score some goals.
Biggest question: Can this year's defense corp. move the puck as well as last year's? Alex Goligoski and Jason Demers may not be top players at their positions but they are very good at what they do. Both players are able to get the puck up to the forwards so that they have time and space to work with. Dan Hamhuis helps alleviate some of what they lost but can newcomers Esa Lindell and Stephen Johns take the next step in their development in order to help on this front? We shall see.
The goaltending situation in Dallas hasn't been great. They are paying close to 11M to be a bottom three team on this front. As exciting as the Stars can be they won't be able to go as far as they want if they can't get average goaltending. I'm not sure what Jim Nill can do on this front. Both contracts are less than ideal. This is definitely the biggest problem area on the team.
Ultimately the ability to score goals is what keeps Dallas near the top of this division.
Minnesota
Yes, Minnesota. This may come as a surprise to some, but Minnesota has the roster and now the coach to be very competitive in a great division. A lot of this placement is driven by the Bruce Boudreau effect. When Boudreau comes to a new team he improves that team's ability to drive play. Minnesota was 20th in Score-Adjusted Fenwick last year and they have room for improvement. The way this team is structured is for them to have success in the now. They have some very large contracts that seem like they are never going to end(Parise, Suter) that will be problematic as the years go on.
Biggest question: Will the secondary scoring be enough? There isn't a lot of star power on the Minnesota Wild. Zach Parise is as close as it gets to being a star goal scorer on this team. There are quite a number of players in the middle tier that have talent, but haven't really produced at a high enough level. Last year Erik Haula (1.97) and Nino Niederreiter (1.93) were the only two players to produce at a top six level at 5v5. Players like Mikko Koivu, Charlie Coyle, Mikael Granlund, Jason Pominville, and Eric Staal are going to have to step up. I believe this is where Boudreau's impact can help change things on this front.
Minnesota has a very strong defense corp. and this will help put the forwards in more advantageous situations. Having guys who can make plays on the back end will have a great impact on both possession and tangible offense. Minnesota was a top 5 team in GA/60 last year at even-strength and I don't see that submarining with Boudreau in charge. If they can continue to be stingy while contributing to better offense this can be a team to make noise.
Chicago
This is still a good team. Them being placed fourth overall speaks more to the division than it does them. While they aren't quite at the level they have been accustomed to this team is still going to be tough to beat on a nightly basis. Part of why they might be a little bit down is because their cap issues and deadline decisions have forced their hand. Renting Andrew Ladd did not pay dividends and cost them a cheap NHL caliber forward in Marko Dano. Bryan Bickell's contract also cost them Teuvo Teravainen. The forward depth isn't where it once was. That isn't to say they still don't have some terrific players because they do (Toews, Kane, Hossa, Anisimov, Panarin)
Biggest question: Can they stay healthy? Over the years the Blackhawks have done great on this front. Heading into this season they will need that to continue. As mentioned above the depth isn't quite where it used to be. If they were to lose any one of their notable forwards for an extended period of time they will probably feel the pinch more than usual.
Heading into the previous offseason I thought that Chicago was a team that could be in danger of missing the playoffs (mostly due to division strength). They then made a terrific signing which should save them from that fate. Getting Brian Campbell back for peanuts was a huge get for the Blackhawks. Having a top three of Keith, Campbell, and Hjallmarsson is pretty great. Campbell's presence should allow Seabrook to play in a more appropriate decreased role so he can find more success.
Corey Crawford is one of the better goalies in the league so if there are some bumps in the road along the way he can help keep the team going in the right direction.
They might not be Cup favorites anymore but they are still good.
St. Louis
The St. Louis Blues finally got over the first round hump that had been plaguing them 2013-15.
It goes to show how deep this division is when St. Louis is the fifth ranked team on here. Being fifth doesn't necessarily mean an absence from the playoffs. The Central is more than capable of sending five teams to the playoffs again.
So why fifth? Somebody had to be. After Nashville at the top you could see Dallas, Minnesota, Chicago, and St. Louis finish in any order 2-5. There isn't much separating the teams. Even the next team (Winnipeg) could be in this discussion.
St. Louis is entering its final season with Ken Hitchcock as the bench boss. Mike Yeo has been hired to take over the team next year which creates an interesting dynamic behind the bench. How much of past (Hitchcock) ideas will be in concert with the new (Yeo) ideas? What kind of systems can they come up with as they attempt to blend their ideas together? It is one of the more unique setups in the league in this regard.
The Blues have one of the absolute best players in the league in Vladimir Tarasenko. He is a freak and will continue to drive offense for this team. He has nice support in the likes of Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen, and Jayden Schwartz who all have proven NHL track records. They did lose Troy Brouwer and David Backes which does hurt in the short term but they were very wise to avoid those kinds of contracts moving forward. There are some forwards coming up through the pipeline that could potentially find their way into the lineup. Ty Rattie is at the point where St. Louis is going to have to give him an extended NHL look or move on from him. Ivan Barbashev probably has another AHL season in his future but there is promise on that front. With Jayden Schwartz missing the first 7-8 weeks of the season with injury it opens up the chance for a player who otherwise wouldn't get an opportunity to get one at the beginning of the year.
Biggest question: What do the Blues get for Kevin Shattenkirk? Eventually you have to think that St. Louis is going to elect to move on from Shattenkirk as opposed to letting him leave for nothing. How will the Blues balance the short and long term with a potential Shattenkirk deal. He is one of their best defenders and compares a lot more favorably to Alex Pietrangelo than most people think. If they do move on from him can Petteri Lindbohm and/or Jordan Schmaltz help fill some minutes?
For some odd reason the Blues were dead set on moving on from Brian Elliott. All Elliott did during his Blues career is put up some of the best save percentage numbers in the league. This is Jake Allen's show now whether he's ready for it or not.
Winnipeg
The Jets can certainly play their way into the mix. This is a good team. They have a really nice blend of forwards that can do some damage. Having a future NHL star that is ready to jump into the league next year in Patrick Laine is a great thing. Mark Schieffle showed off his immense talents at the World Cup of Hockey when he was put on a line with Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. Bryan Little is one of the more underrated players in the league. Blake Wheeler is one of the best wingers in hockey, period. Mathieu Perrault is an advanced stats darling. Nikolaj Ehlers is positioned to have a breakout year after putting up 38 points in 72 games his rookie year. There is a lot to like here.
Biggest question: How does the Jacob Trouba situation shake out? Personally, the first thing I would have done is try to move Tyler Myers and show Trouba that he is more than Mark Stuart's long term partner, but that didn't happen. Can the Jets get what they want out of this situation? A lot of how the season will go depends on if Trouba is playing on the team (not likely) or what assets they get in return to help the team now. They will definitely need help defensively if Trouba is traded. Forward wise they are in a good spot.
Is this the year Connor Hellebuyck finally gets the starting goaltender job? It should be. The team should be shifting away from Ondrej Pavelec as soon as possible.
This team is probably a playoff lock in any other division.
Colorado
Free at last, free at last. This was one of the worst coached teams in the league the past couple of years. There is no doubt that Patrick Roy held back the talent on this team. While it remains to be seen how Jared Bednar does in his first ever NHL coaching gig one has to think it can't be much worse than the Roy led Avalanche.
I am very much looking forward to seeing how players like Nate MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, and Tyson Barrie do with some more freedom. MacKinnon can absolutely be one of the best players in the league and a player like Barrie being allowed to play to his strengths will be a huge difference maker.
Biggest question: How much of a difference can Jared Bednar actually make? This was a team with no defensive structure and it led to some of the easiest goals being scored in the league. By implementing any kind of system that the players adhere to it should make a big difference defensively. Allowing his best players the freedom to do as they choose offensively will also be a positive change. However, there is only so much that will do based on the roster construction. When you get past some of the higher end talent on this team the depth still doesn't stack up with the other teams in this division. No matter who the coach is you still need a solid supporting cast behind your star players. This is an area that could still use some work.
We are going to see a better Colorado Avalanche team in 2016-17 but it probably won't be enough for a playoff run. They are definitely the best "last place" team in the league.
That's the Central Division. Be on the lookout for the Atlantic Division next
Thanks for reading!