Coaches are put on this earth to unlock the winner within. Increasingly, that is the job description for GMs, too. Practically every team on the outside of the playoffs in 2016-17 goes into this season relying on improvement from the inside.
If the Sabres are going to be a post-season team for the first time in seven seasons, they need complete seasons and increased production from Jack Eichel, Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo and Evander Kane.
Should this be the year that Carolina ends an eight-season drought, it will be because Victor Rask proves capable of first-line numbers and the most talented young defense in the league turns into one of the best.
The Panthers, who didn’t exactly turn the light back on for hockey in South Florida with any of their off-season moves, basically are counting on better health. Philadelphia, which traded 25-goal scorer Brayden Schenn for more pieces of the future, will have four or five rookies in the lineup on opening night and will need almost all their top players, Wayne Simmonds excepted, to bounce back from off years. Tampa Bay found value in a thin free-agent market with Chris Kunitz and was willing to exchange Jonathan Drouin’s promise for that of Mikhail Sergachev, who is 19 years old. But basically, the Lightning figures itself a playoff team again because of the return of Steven Stamkos.
Marcus Johansson was the big veteran move in New Jersey, which will leap forward only if Pavel Zacha and Nico Hischier play beyond their years. The Islanders? With one foot out the door of Brooklyn, and the franchise and John Tavares hanging in the balance, it’s up to the charisma of Jordan Eberle to get that arena built near Belmont Park.
In the West, the Jets moved for what they think will be a goaltending upgrade in Steve Mason, but didn’t do much else of consequence, believing that that Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler and a healthier Tyler Myers are still ascendant.
Dallas, which spent some dollars on Ben Bishop; Alexander Radulov (who last season scored all of 18 goals); and Martin Hanzal, a thirtysomething point scorer, probably was the most aggressive team in the offseason by default. The Stars also have a new coach, as does Los Angeles, which signed Michael Cammalleri, who will get you 20 in a good year. The Kings are counting on kids to fill three spots on defense.
Arizona, which far-too optimistically went cold turkey on a youth movement in 2016-17, added significant experience–Niklas Hjalmarsson and Derek Stepan. But to make the playoffs for the first time in six seasons, the kids still are going to have to progress, which is the case for all the teams that missed the post-season in 2017 and have a shot in 2018.
Even the ones that don’t have a chance–Detroit, Colorado and Vancouver-knew that no big off-season splash, real or perceived, would create a wave of instant optimism.
The acquired final piece of the puzzle is as extinct as the breakaway pass. Everybody is counting on their own stepping up, which speaks to these capped times and unfortunately gives us a lot less to speak about as another season begins.
The big off-season acquisition, of a kind that makes one wonder what Peter Forsberg can finally break the drought in Philly, or whether Chris Drury will change the Rangers culture, or how much Domink Hasek has left to give the Red Wings, has gone the way of the fighting major in the last five minutes.
Post-lockout predictions of yearly, massive roster turnovers – well, at least they were my predictions – have not materialized. In fact the opposite has occurred. For better or worse, in most cases for the better, teams have locked up their emergent stars, leaving the support players as the ones exiting for cap purposes.
We’re not arguing here that this is all bad for the game. No question, the team name becomes more identifiable when it has players the citizens can name. But change is intriguing. And nothing tremendously riveting happened this summer or, for that matter, most summers. The only top-30 scorer in 2016-17 who was moved in this past off-season was Artemi Panarin. In fact, only four of those 30 have been traded in the last five years – Phil Kessel, Eric Staal and Tyler Seguin. And Seguin was four seasons ago.
The marquis free agent signing was Kevin Shattenkirk. Nice player, fills a hole on a good team, but he was the Blues’ third best defenseman and maybe their fourth, so be still my beating heart, as least until Phil Esposito brings Pierre Larouche back to New York again. Makes a Ranger hater long for the days when, every year, a Val Kamensky would come for the money and flop.
Pittsburgh got bold for Phil Kessel and it paid off, clearly. Twice. So where are the copycats? After Ryan Johansen-for-Seth Jones and Shea Weber-for-P.K. Subban in the last two seasons, we were counting on David Poile for at least a Roman Josi-for-a-Jusi Jokinen. Or something. But David made the finals in June and apparently has gone soft, like his counterparts.
Where Have You Gone, all the great movers and shakers? Within two seasons of managing the 1996-97 Flyers to a final, Bob Clarke changed all but three members of that team. Ron Caron, you are missed. So get Mike Milbury back on the phone, where he belongs.
Twenty-four of last year’s top 30 scorers are still with their original organizations. Everybody has always preached patience. Now, we have 31 GMs dumping the puck. Not even Kris Versteeg got traded this summer.
It’s a little a different with goalies, where eight of the first 20 in wins in 2016-17, have changed teams in the last three years. This is basically the netminders own fault, the good ones multiplying exponentially over the last 15 years, like Staals. There is so much depth and so many options, that the franchise goalie that you once needed to win a Cup has pretty much gone the way of the rectangular crease.
You may note that in the last five drafts, only two goaltenders have been taken in the first round, neither above the 20th pick. The next Carey Price, projected as a 10-12 year answer for whomever drafted him, may have been the last one. The goalie door spins like Dominic Roussel trying to stop a Mario Lemieux breakaway, while scorers are the untouchable building blocks.
Whoever drafts them, they happily live ever after, too. It’s a rare thing nowadays when a Matt Duchene wants out, but we’re sleeping well, thank you, waiting for a guy who has never had a point-a-game season to land. So wake me up now that the action is going back to the ice, after a summer duller than a Chris Vandevelde quote.
I’d want Patrick Marleau on my team, and so did Toronto obviously, but his impact will probably be more felt in the room than on the ice. He doesn’t potentially change the balance in the Atlantic Division or make the already exciting young Leafs any more compelling. So after Panarin, could the next most dynamic forward to move this summer have been Schenn?
The big trades were up to you in your fantasy league. Hope you did better than Gery Leeman-for-Doug Gilmour because incentives to get bold have become curiously scarce and it is not all because of the cap, either. Relatively new NHL owners aren’t looking to make a big splash that instantly will fill the upper corners of the rink. Besieged GMs in Year Four of what now suspiciously has become an 8-year plan aren’t gambling prospects away to stay ahead of the posse.
The action picks up at the trading deadline, sure. But summers have become deader than the Cleveland Barons. Up at the cottage, good NHL players can answer their cells without trepidation. It’s not the GM on the line, just a telemarketer, trying to sell an NHL season ticket to watch all these exciting draft choices.
Some fast predictions:
Eastern Conference Playoffs:
In: Pittsburgh, Columbus, Toronto, Rangers, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Montreal, Ottawa.
Out: Washington, Philadelphia, Boston. Florida, Buffalo, New Jersey, Islanders, Detroit
Western Conference Playoffs:
In: Minnesota, St. Louis, Nashville, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Anaheim, Calgary, Dallas.
Out: Chicago, Colorado, Los Angeles, Arizona, Vancouver, San Jose, Vegas.
East Finalist: Columbus
West Finalist: Anaheim
Stanley Cup Champion: Columbus
Hart: Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh
Norris: Erik Karlsson, Ottawa
Calder: Charlie McAvoy, Boston