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Jakob Silfverberg has been one of Anaheim’s top forwards over the last few seasons and is now more important than ever, as the Ducks work to usher in new talent.
Silfverberg has been on pace for at least 26 goals and 48 points (per 82 games) over the last two seasons. That said, his shot attempts and shooting percentage point to the fact that he may see a bit of a decrease in production next season.
Here are what Silfverberg’s averages per 82 games over the last five seasons look like:
2015-16: 20 goals, 39 points, 215 shots, 367 shot attempts, 2016-17: 24 goals, 51 points, 236 shots, 398 shot attempts 2017-18: 18 goals, 43 points, 199 shots, 374 shot attempts 2018-19: 27 goals, 48 points, 183 shots, 324 shot attempts 2019-20: 26 goals, 48 points, 193 shots, 335 shot attempts
Silfverberg’s shots and shot attempts per 82 have actually decreased from where they were earlier in his tenure with the Ducks, despite the fact that he’s been on pace to hit 25 goals in each of the last two seasons.
Then comes his shooting percentage. Prior to the 2018-19 season, Silfverberg had only hit a shooting percentage of 10 per cent once in his six NHL seasons. His shooting percentage in 2018-19, however, was all the way up to 14.7 per cent and he was still at 13.5 per cent this season. It points to the fact that there’s a good chance these high shooting percentages aren’t really sustainable.
If we take his current career shooting percentage of 9.9 per cent and apply that to his per 82 averages in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 season, this is what his production looks like instead:
2018-19: 27 goals, 48 points (14.7 S%) 2018-19: 18 goals, 39 points (Adjusted to 9.9 S%)
2019-20: 26 goals, 48 points (13.5 S%) 2019-20: 19 goals, 41 points (Adjusted to 9.9 S%)
While Silfverberg isn’t likely to see any sort of dramatic decrease in production, I’d say it’s unlikely that we see him on pace for 25 goals and nearly 50 points again next season. His shooting percentage has been unsustainable and given his decrease in shot attempts, there's a good chance we could see his numbers down a bit next year.
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