Win some, lose some. Having fearlessly predicted both that the Golden Knights would be better than the 1976-77 Canadiens, and that the Capitals would not only slip out of the playoffs, but be out of the league by December, my prognostications are hotter than Torts’ collar at the suggestion hockey players ever get tired, and colder than Connor McDavid to an invitation at a Brandon Manning meet-and-greet.
Therefore, I am eminently qualified to deliver this all-but-half-season review of a 2017-18 NHL in which teams have been more up and down than even John Davidson used to be during Isles’ power plays.
Philadelphia followed 10 consecutive losses with six straight wins. The Rangers won two of their first ten and then soon won 12 of 15. After triumphing in six of the first seven, Toronto then lost six of eight. The same Montreal team capable of losing seven consecutive contests has enjoyed a five-game victory streak.
Teams pronounced dead have had more lives than even Rick Dudley. The Kings dropped seven of eight, then won eight before losing the next three. Minnesota squandered three, won four, and now has lost four of five. Chicago lost five, won five and now is skidding again through three. Columbus has had a six-game rush and a four-game skid. Each Dallas mini-surge so far has been followed by three straight defeats.
Other serious schneids–of 10 by Arizona, or seven by Buffalo and Detroit–one might expect. And when Ottawa has now won three of its last 18, this is not just a slump, more a scheduling for executions.
But even the stunningly, suddenly, good teams–the Golden Knights and Devils–hit three-game iceberg tips that threatened to doom them to Davy Jones Locker before immediately bouncing back, much to the consternation of know-it-alls everywhere.
Boiling-to-freezing, Fahrenheit or Celsius, what in the name of Brayden Schenn is going on here? In this league, you can go from heaven to hell faster than a Panther executive.
At least the Flames, who have never lost more than three straight or won more than three, have the decency to be decidedly, consistently, decent. Sort of. They don’t toy with your emotions. But Carolina goes west to lose four straight, then wins in Vegas, which nobody else is doing even if half the fans there are rooting for the other team.
So what can anyone make of this? Whatever it is, it had better be quick. Good teams go bad faster than a trade for Andrei Kovalenko. Bad teams get on good streaks like Alexander Daigle could, too. The clubs fly up and down in blatant disregard for their GMs trying to figure out whether they should be buyers or sellers at the trading deadline. It is puzzlement greater than even Jaroslav Halak’s next start.
“Because everybody in the league is so close, confidence is a huge factor,… said Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill.
Players average younger and therefore are more fickle than a Sabre ownership. They feel unbeatable one minute, within one loss feel like they never will win again. Only in Arizona is this actually true; everyone else can take comfort in the fact that sooner, rather than later, you are going to run into a team playing even worse than you are. And then another cycle begins.
‘You can ask anybody, confidence plays a huge part,… said Dave Hakstol, coach of the flighty Flyers. “When you are going good, you have that mentality that you are not going to take less than finding a way to win a game.
“When you’re on the other end of close losses, it starts to wear on you. You didn’t see that much of that in our team until maybe the San Jose and Boston games (the final two losses of the 10-game skid that contained five overtime or shootout losses). But then you have a couple good things happen, along with paying attention to detail and sticking together, you get that little injection of adrenaline that helps push you in the right direction.…
Of course, teams who don’t know where their next solid, 60-minute effort is coming from beat themselves up for being lazy disgraces to their uniforms. And, naturally in a sport of mood swings from period-to-period and even shift-to shift, coaching is going to bear the responsibility when one team out-enthuses the other. The casualty rate of coaches always has been unfairly high. But, more than ever, the cap has made changing the guy behind the bench so much easier than getting rid of some guys sitting on it.
Truth is, the level of coaching in the league is higher than ever. A lot of clubs are maintaining a reasonable consistency of effort but do not have a reasonable talent level to sustain winning. When they are too reliant on too few scorers, inevitably they slip back, for lack of players who can pick up the slack on bad nights for their stars. Consistency is more a reflection of depth than it is of effort.
And then there are injuries. Toronto’s second slump of the season directly correlated to the absence of Auston Matthews, well duh, but the Leafs aren’t that good on the back end to grind wins out, 2-1. The Kings did unnaturally well for a while without Jeff Carter, but gravity now seems to be taking hold with four losses in six games.
Not hard to figure out how the Bruins lost four straight in November without David Krejci and David Backes. Vancouver’s respectability vanished along with Bo Horvat from the lineup. Poachers have been shooting Ducks out of the blind—Ryan Getzlaf, Richard Rakell, Corey Perry, Ondrej Kase Cam Flower have been missed and Ryan Kesler still is.
The Flyers perked up soon after Andrew MacDonald, the lone veteran presence on an exceedingly young defense, returned. And we’ll take a wild guess that Leon Draisaitl’s rerun has had a little to do with the Oilers resurgence.
The Penguins, up and down and all around their proud champion selves but never quite getting there, are smacking themselves around for their efforts, or perceived lack of same. But subtracting Chris Kunitz, Matt Cullen, Trevor Daley and Joe Bonino in one off-season is a lot, even if Kris Letang is back. The Rangers appear schizoid, but they are a donut, not enough in the middle. The Isles are a rarity in the league anymore–a team with goaltending it can’t win with.
On paper, the three teams ahead of the Blackhawks in the Central are deeper, better. In Big D, the D is young and without a true anchor. After last season, who thought Colorado would be even this respectable, except maybe Colorado?
The cap and a 31-team draft have spread out the talent like Laurent Brossoit’s five-hole. It doesn’t take much-an injury, a couple blown third-period leads, a pep talk from Guy Boucher—to send a team south before the compass swings back quickly.
In the meantime, the Sharks are still the Sharks, hanging around despite some predictions to the contrary. So there still is some consistency out there. Tampa Bay has yet to lose more than two straight and we can’t think of a single reason for that, except that this is an awfully good team. Ditto Nashville, a finalist in the spring, which currently is suffering its first three-game skid of the season. The Blues, who haven’t won more than four straight or lost more than three, keep churning ‘em out. Young Winnipeg has only one three-game losing streak. Veteran Washington so far has stopped every slump at two.
We’d like to believe these steady grinders are going to be the teams to plow through in the playoffs. But that advantage could be fleeting if they run into opponents who suddenly are hot. Inevitably, some first-round loser will follow a manic-depressive season with lamentations of that old saw: You can’t just turn it on when you need it. But there is little going on in the NHL this season to certify that you can’t.